Publication: Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration
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Date
2011
ISSN
02615606
Published
2011
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The financial crisis has re-ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth, especially for developing countries. The empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration. Indeed, a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses. A major complication, however, is that there seem to be certain "threshold" levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness. In this paper, we develop a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions. We find that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality--the cost-benefit trade-off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied. We also find that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared to those for debt liabilities.
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Publication Thresholds in the Process of International Financial Integration(2009-12-01)The financial crisis has re-ignited the fierce debate about the merits of financial globalization and its implications for growth, especially for developing countries. The empirical literature has not been able to conclusively establish the presumed growth benefits of financial integration. Indeed, a new literature proposes that the indirect benefits of financial integration may be more important than the traditional financing channel emphasized in previous analyses. A major complication, however, is that there seem to be certain "threshold" levels of financial and institutional development that an economy needs to attain before it can derive the indirect benefits and reduce the risks of financial openness. This paper develops a unified empirical framework for characterizing such threshold conditions. The analysis finds that there are clearly identifiable thresholds in variables such as financial depth and institutional quality -- the cost-benefit trade-off from financial openness improves significantly once these threshold conditions are satisfied. The findings also show that the thresholds are lower for foreign direct investment and portfolio equity liabilities compared with those for debt liabilities.Publication Trade and Financial Sector Reforms : Interactions and Spillovers(2010-04-01)The allocation of production across firms is a potentially important explanation of the productivity gap between rich and poor economies. Reforms to trade policy and the domestic financial sector are often both key elements of policy packages aimed at reducing productive distortions. However, the impact of each reform in reallocating production within an economy is usually analyzed independently. This paper asks how do such general equilibrium effects of trade and domestic financial sector reforms interact in terms of their effects on productivity, wages and utility. Motivated by recent firm-level studies, I add two-way linkages between firms production and exporting decisions and their financial constraints to a general equilibrium heterogeneous firm trade model. The interaction effects between reforms appear qualitatively important. Trade and domestic financial sector reforms have complementary effects on the average productivity and size of domestic producers. However, if much reallocative work has already been done through a well-functioning financial sector, the marginal benefits of trade liberalisation for wages and household utility are reduced. Improvements in the ability to use exports as pledgeable collateral enhance both the wage and productivity effects of trade reforms. The model also highlights the potential for financial sector reforms in one economy to be exported via the trade channel, affecting decisions to produce or export in the foreign economy and putting downward pressure on foreign real wages.Publication The International Financial Integration of China and India(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-02)Three main features characterize the international financial integration of China and India. First, while only having a small global share of privately-held external assets and liabilities (with the exception of China's foreign direct investment liabilities), these countries are large holders of official reserves. Second, their international balance sheets are highly asymmetric: both are "short equity, long debt." Third, China and India have improved their net external positions over the past decade although, based on their income level, neoclassical models would predict them to be net borrowers. Domestic financial developments and policies seem essential in understanding these patterns of integration. These include financial liberalization and exchange rate policies, domestic financial sector policies, and the impact of financial reform on savings and investment rates. Changes in these factors will affect the international financial integration of China and India (through shifts in capital flows and asset and liability holdings) and, consequently, the international financial system.Publication Benefits and Costs of International Financial Integration : Theory and Facts(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001-10)The author provides a selective review of the recent analytical and empirical literature on the benefits and costs of international financial integration. He discusses the impact of financial openness on consumption, investment, and growth, and the impact of foreign bank entry on the domestic financial system. Consistent with some recent studies, the author argues that financial integration must be carefully prepared and managed to ensure that the benefits outweigh the short-run risks. Prudent macroeconomic management, adequate supervision and prudential regulation of the financial system, greater transparency, and improved capacity to manage risk in the private sector are important requirements for coping with potentially abrupt reversals in pro-cyclical, short-term capital flows. The author adopts a more skeptical view than some assessments in two areas, however. First, only foreign direct investment appears to provide dynamic gains and improved prospects for growth; the evidence on the benefits of other types of capital flows remains weak. Second, empirical research on the net benefits associated with foreign bank penetration is far from conclusive; in particular, the possibility that such penetration may lead to adverse changes in the allocation of credit among domestic firms cannot be dismissed on the basis of the existing evidence.Publication The Crisis Hits Home : Stress-Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia(World Bank, 2010)The Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region has been hit by a crisis on multiple fronts. Countries in ECA are facing major, interrelated, external macro-financial shocks. The first is the global growth slowdown leading to falling export market demand. In addition, the prospects for inflows of remittances to low-income countries have been downgraded as economic activity in migrant host countries has declined. The second is the financial deleveraging by major banks and other financial institutions in developed economies, which has markedly reduced the availability, and increased the cost, of external finance across public, corporate, and financial sectors. The third is the recent commodity price changes, which have involved a reversal of much of the commodity price boom of 2007 and 2008. The main objective of the study is to understand the impact of these macroeconomic shocks on household well-being. In particular, it seeks to understand the key macroeconomic shocks confronted by the region and the impact of such shocks on household welfare, including the effect on household income flows, consumption levels, and liabilities. It will also assess possible strategies to cope with the crisis and manage the adverse social impact.
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