Publication:
Financing Firms in Hibernation During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Published
2020-04-13
ISSN
Date
2020-04-17
Author(s)
Huneeus, Federico
Larrain, Mauricio
Editor(s)
Abstract
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has imposed a heavy toll on economies worldwide, nearly halting economic activity. Although most firms should be viable when economic activity resumes, cash flows have collapsed, possibly triggering inefficient bankruptcies with long-term detrimental effects. Firms' valuable relationships with workers, suppliers, customers, governments, and creditors could be broken. Hibernation could slow the economy until the pandemic is brought under control and preserve those vital relationships for a quicker recovery. If all stakeholdersshare the burden of economic inactivity, firms are more likely to survive. Financing could help cover firms' reduced operational costs until the pandemic subdues. But financial systems are not well equipped to handle this type of exogenous and synchronized systemic shock. Governments could work with the financial sector to keep firms afloat, enabling forbearance as needed and absorbing part of the firms' increased credit risk, by implementing policies with proper incentives to keep firms viable.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Huneeus, Federico; Didier, Tatiana; Larrain, Mauricio; Schmukler, Sergio L.. 2020. Financing Firms in Hibernation During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Research and Policy Briefs,no. 30;. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33611 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Financing Firms in Hibernation during the COVID-19 Pandemic
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05) Huneeus, Federico; Didier, Tatiana; Larrain, Mauricio; Schmukler, Sergio L.
    The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has halted economic activity worldwide, hurting firms and pushing them toward bankruptcy. This paper provides a unified framework to organize the policy debate related to firm financing during the downturn, centered along four main points. First, the economic crisis triggered by the spread of the virus is radically different from past crises, with important consequences for optimal policy responses. Second, to avoid inefficient bankruptcies and long-term detrimental effects, it is important to preserve firms' relationships with key stakeholders, like workers, suppliers, customers, and creditors. Third, firms can benefit from "hibernating," using the minimum bare cash necessary to withstand the pandemic, while using credit to remain alive until the crisis subdues. Fourth, the existing legal and regulatory infrastructure is ill-equipped to deal with an exogenous systemic shock such as this pandemic. Financial sector policies can help increase the provision of credit, while posing difficult choices and trade-offs.
  • Publication
    Crisis Credit, Employment Protection, Indebtedness, and Risk
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-25) Huneeus, Federico; Kaboski, Joseph P.; Larrain, Mauricio; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Vera, Mario
    This paper studies how credit guarantee and employment protection programs interact in supporting firms during crises, using real and financial administrative data for all firms and a quantitative macroeconomic model. Low interest rates encourage riskier firms to demand government-backed loans, while banks tend to reject those applications. The credit demand outweighs this screening response, expanding indebtedness. Given the opportunity cost of shutting down, the employment program’s take-up is unrelated to risk. The employment program mitigates the credit program expansion by supporting firms and enabling banks to screen them. Counterfactuals show how policy ingredients, including interest rate caps, limit macroeconomic risk.
  • Publication
    The Distribution of Crisis Credit
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-14) Huneeus, Federico; Kaboski, Joseph P.; Larrain, Mauricio; Schmukler, Sergio L.; Vera, Mario
    This paper studies the distribution of credit during crisis times and its impact on firm indebtedness and macroeconomic risk. Whereas policies can help firms in need of financing, they can lead to adverse selection from riskier firms and higher default risk. The paper analyzes a large-scale program of public credit guarantees in Chile during the COVID-19 pandemic using unique transaction-level data on the demand and supply of credit, matched with administrative tax data, for the universe of banks and firms. Credit demand channels loans toward riskier firms, distributing 4.6 percent of gross domestic product and increasing firm leverage. Despite increased lending to riskier firms, macroeconomic risks remain small. Several factors mitigate aggregate risk: the small weight of riskier firms, the exclusion of the riskiest firms, bank screening, contained expected defaults, and the government absorption of tail risk. The empirical findings are confirmed with a model of heterogeneous firms and endogenous default.
  • Publication
    Challenges of Public Credit Guarantee Schemes in Latin America during the Pandemic
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01) Rudolph, Heinz P.; Diaz Kalan, Federico A.; Miguel Liriano, Faruk
    Partial credit guarantees have been a central tool in countries’ strategies to support firms through the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper presents the results of a set of surveys covering 19 partial credit guarantees in 12 countries in the Latin America region, which were repeated at different stages of the pandemic crisis. The paper finds that most partial credit guarantees in the region are not large enough to foster change in the way the local financial sectors conduct business, how they engage with small and medium-size enterprises, and how they assimilate climate and gender considerations. Moreover, the response to the pandemic shows that most partial credit guarantees in the region have made limited use of the toolkit of parametric changes for boosting participation among financial institutions. Finally, the paper stresses the need for fair pricing methodologies and risk-based capital adequacy that may ensure the long-term sustainability of partial credit guarantee schemes.
  • Publication
    The Financing and Growth of Firms in China and India : Evidence from Capital Markets
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-04) Didier, Tatiana; Schmukler, Sergio L.
    This paper studies the extent to which firms in China and India use capital markets to obtain financing and grow. Using a unique data set on domestic and international capital raising activity and firm performance, it finds that the expansion of financial market activity since the 1990s has been more limited than what the aggregate figures suggest. Relatively few firms raise capital. Even fewer firms capture the bulk of the financing. Moreover, firms that issue equity or bonds are different and behave differently from other publicly listed firms. Among other things, they are typically larger and grow faster. The differences between users and non-users exist before the capital raising activity, are associated with the probability of raising capital, and become more accentuated afterward. The distribution of issuing firms shifts more over time than the distribution of those that do not issue, suggesting little convergence in firm size among listed firms.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Digital Progress and Trends Report 2025: Strengthening AI Foundations
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-24) World Bank
    The recent rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI) has outpaced society’s ability to fully grasp its implications. Unlike technological shifts that have unfolded over decades, AI’s integration is accelerating at an unprecedented speed and scale. Along with AI’s immense opportunities come new responsibilities—especially for ethical deployment, accountability, and alignment with human values—that have few precedents in previous technology revolutions. This 2025 edition of the "Digital Progress and Trends Report (DPTR)" explores how low- and middle-income countries can harness AI to drive inclusive and sustainable development—and avoid being left behind. The report explains what makes AI different from earlier general-purpose technologies and why it matters for development. It introduces the 4Cs, the foundations essential for AI adoption, adaptation, and innovation: connectivity (infrastructure), compute (processing power), context (training data, algorithms, and applications), and competency (digital skills). Drawing on rich, novel data sets, this DPTR benchmarks countries across the 4Cs, analyzes supply and demand dynamics, and identifies market failures and externalities where policy action is urgently needed. This report emphasizes the need for global coordination and targeted interventions to close the widening AI gaps, where resource constraints threaten to exacerbate inequality. Policy insights will help governments unlock AI’s potential while navigating its risks.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.
  • Publication
    Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-29) World Bank
    Commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 percent overall this year, reflecting subdued global economic activity, elevated trade tensions and policy uncertainty, ample global supply of oil, and weather-related supply shocks. In 2026, commodity prices are forecast to fall by a further 7 percent, a fourth consecutive year of decline, as global growth remains sluggish and the oil market oversupplied. Energy price movements are envisaged to continue contributing to global disinflation in 2026. Metals and minerals prices are expected to remain stable in 2026, while agricultural prices are projected to edge down, primarily due to strong supply conditions. Precious metals prices are expected to rise another 5 percent, after a historically large, investment-driven rally of about 40 percent in 2025. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted to the downside. Key downside risks include weaker-than-expected global growth, a longer-than-assumed period of economic policy uncertainty, and additional oversupply of oil. Upside risks include intensifying geopolitical tensions, the market impact of additional oil sanctions, supply reductions stemming from additional trade restrictions, unfavorable weather conditions, faster-than-expected rollout of new data centers. Commodity price volatility in recent years has revived interest in supply management via international commodity agreements. Historical experience, however, shows that the most effective policy is to promote diversification, innovation, transparency, and market-based pricing—measures that build lasting resilience to commodity price volatility.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    Future Jobs: Robots, Artificial Intelligence, and Digital Platforms in East Asia and Pacific
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-19) Arias, Omar; Fukuzawa, Daisuke; Le, Duong Trung; Mattoo, Aaditya
    People in East Asia and Pacific (EAP) countries have prospered over the last few decades because of the growth in productive jobs. Do industrial robots, artificial intelligence (AI), and digital platforms threaten that development model? "Future Jobs" presents evidence that new technologies have thus far boosted employment. Increases in productivity and scale have outweighed the labor-displacing effects of automation technologies. However, the benefits have been uneven, favoring skilled workers while some less-skilled workers, in more routine and manual jobs, have been pushed into the informal sector. Digital platforms have generated new opportunities for the hitherto marginalized but also created insecurity for incumbent workers. Looking ahead, digitization will enhance the tradability of services, and AI will transform the production processes. EAP countries can benefit by equipping their workforce with the necessary skills and opening their long-protected services sectors to trade and investment. Policy makers, researchers, and businesses will find in this book both insights and questions on how best to harness the potential of new technologies to sustain prosperity in EAP countries.