Publication: Pass-Through of Competitors' Exchange Rates to U.S. Import and Producer Prices
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Date
2017-03
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0022-1996
Published
2017-03
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This paper shows that in theory and BLS microdata, the prices of imported goods respond to the exchange rates (ER) of the producer's foreign competitors. In contrast, standard models have no role for competitors' ERs. Excluding the effects of competitors' exchange rates typically biases upwards estimates of bilateral exchange rate pass-through because competitors' ERs and bilateral ERs are positively correlated. A multi-country version of Atkeson and Burstein's (2008) industry aggregation model is able to explain a sizable proportion of pass-through of competitors' exchange rates to import prices, and also predicts pass-through of foreign competitors' prices and pass-through of competitors' ERs to US producer prices — both of which are supported in the data. The results suggest that pass-through will be larger for ER movements shared by a greater fraction of foreign competitor countries.
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Publication Pass-through of Competitors' Exchange Rates to U.S. Import and Producer Prices(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-12)This paper shows that in theory and BLS microdata, the prices of imported goods respond to the exchange rates (ER) of the producer's foreign competitors. In contrast, standard models have no role for competitors' ERs. Excluding the effects of competitors' exchange rates typically biases upwards estimates of bilateral exchange rate pass-through because competitors' ERs and bilateral ERs are positively correlated. A multi-country version of Atkeson and Burstein's (2008) industry aggregation model is able to explain a sizable proportion of pass-through of competitors' exchange rates to import prices, and also predicts pass-through of foreign competitors' prices and pass-through of competitors' ERs to US producer prices -- both of which are supported in the data. The results suggest that pass-through will be larger for ER movements shared by a greater fraction of foreign competitor countries.Publication The Pass-Through of International Commodity Price Shocks to Producers’ Welfare(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11)International commodity price shocks may have large impacts on producers in developing countries. In this paper, a unique household panel data from Ethiopia is utilize to show that a decrease in international coffee price has strong pass-through to the consumption of households that rely on coffee production as a main source of livelihood. It also results in decreases in on-farm labor supply (particularly male labor supply) and induces reallocation of labor towards non-coffee fields, but has negligible effect on off-farm labor supply. The decline in consumption has significant consequences on child malnutrition: children born in coffee-producing households during low coffee price periods have lower weight-to-age and weight-to-height z-scores than their peers born in non-coffee households.Publication Invoicing Currency and Symmetric Pass-Through of Exchange Rates and Tariffs(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03)The response of import prices to exchange rates can be used to predict the effect of changes in trade policy. The hypothesis of symmetric pass-through of tariffs and exchange rates asserts that the effect of tariffs and exchange rates on prices are identical. This paper examines whether the symmetry hypothesis holds in the context of invoicing currency, by investigating the role of the euro and the U.S dollar currencies. The paper uses transaction-level data of Malawian imports from the European Union (EU) over a 12-year period, separating imports from the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) members and non-members and across sectors. The findings show that the dollar has the highest invoicing share, and the pass-through rate of exchange rate and tariff shocks on to Malawian consumers is high. Symmetry holds when bilateral exchange rates are used, but when the invoicing currency is considered there are deviations from symmetry. This result implies that to predict the effects of trade policy based on import prices' responses to the exchange rate, bilateral exchange rates are not suitable for capturing exchange rate and tariff pass-through. The variations in the results across EMU and non-EMU, currencies, and industries demonstrates that that empirical evidence is needed in each case to understand the extent of pass-through, which is crucial for import-dependent developing countries such as Malawi.Publication Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-03)The degree to which domestic prices adjust to exchange rate movements is key to understanding inflation dynamics, and hence to guiding monetary policy. However, the exchange rate pass-through to inflation varies considerably across countries and over time. By estimating structural factor-augmented vector-autoregressive models for 47 countries, this paper brings to light two fundamental factors accounting for these variations: the nature of the shock triggering currency movements and country-specific characteristics. The empirical results in this paper are three-fold. First, an empirical investigation demonstrates that different domestic and global shocks can be associated with widely different pass-through ratios. Second, country characteristics matter, including policy frameworks that govern monetary policy responses, as well as other structural features that affect an economy's sensitivity to currency fluctuations. Pass-through ratios tend to be lower in countries that combine flexible exchange rate regimes and credible inflation targets. Finally, the empirical results suggest that central bank independence can greatly facilitate the task of stabilizing inflation following large currency movements and allows fuller use of the exchange rate as a buffer against external shocks.Publication The Pass-Through of International Commodity Price Shocks to Producers’ Welfare(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2021-09-16)International commodity price shocks may have large impacts on producers in developing countries. In this paper, a unique household panel data from Ethiopia is utilized to show that a decrease in international coffee price has strong pass-through to the consumption of households that rely on coffee production as a main source of livelihood. It also results in decreases in on-farm labor supply (particularly male labor supply) and induces reallocation of labor towards non-coffee fields but has negligible effect on off-farm labor supply. The decline in consumption has significant consequences on child malnutrition: children born in coffee-producing households during low coffee price periods have lower weight-for-age and weight-for-height z-scores than their peers born in non-coffee households.
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