Publication:
Living on the Edge : Vulnerability to Poverty and Public Transfers in Mexico

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (661.83 KB)
501 downloads
Published
2013-11-12
ISSN
Date
2013-12-02
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper reports that the vulnerable in Mexico—people who left poverty but have not yet gained a place in the middle class—make up 30-40 percent of the population, thanks to a combination of highly unsettled, low-paid employment, living in communities with poor services, and over-exposure to often short-lived and somewhat unpredictable uninsured risks. It seems necessary to distinguish between long-term and short-term sources of vulnerability to poverty, and from a policy perspective, keeping this distinction between quasi-permanent factors and shocks remains relevant as very different measures address each problem. Policy options may include (1) expanding coverage of existing programs to encompass the highly vulnerable in a permanent way or to build mechanisms into existing safety nets so that they can expand support when needed, or (2) pushing for a more radical redesign of existing programs to address simultaneously the differentiated causes (structural and transient) to the threat of future poverty.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Ortiz-Juárez, Eduardo; de la Fuente, Alejandro; Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos. 2013. Living on the Edge : Vulnerability to Poverty and Public Transfers in Mexico. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16336 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Living on the Edge : Vulnerability to Poverty and Public Transfers in Mexico
    (World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015-01) Ortiz-Juarez, Eduardo; de la Fuente, Alejandro; Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos
    Social policy in Mexico has focused on identifying and supporting chronically poor households. Yet, Mexico has a significant number of households that are just above the poverty line who are not eligible, by definition, for antipoverty programs and are at risk of falling back into poverty in the event of an economic crisis or shocks like loss of employment and natural disasters. These shocks can have serious negative effects on welfare in the absence of social safety nets targeted to these households. This study uses household survey data to better understand these "vulnerable" households, including their profile and risk exposure and, more importantly, to document the extent to which these households are covered by public transfers and insurance mechanisms. The analysis shows that until 2010 most social programs, including the few with productive components, such as vocational training and productive investment grants, barely covered the vulnerable. The study concludes that public policies need to pay attention to the vulnerable households and find the right policy mix between targeted interventions and universal insurance schemes to serve this economic group.
  • Publication
    Living on the Edge
    (Taylor and Francis, 2018) Ortiz-Juárez, Eduardo; de la Fuente, Alejandro; Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos
    Social policy in Mexico has focused on identifying and supporting households in extreme poverty. Yet, the country has a significant number of households just above the poverty line who are not eligible, by definition, for antipoverty programs and are at risk of falling into poverty in the event of adverse shocks without appropriate social safety nets. This study uses cross-section and longitudinal data to understand better the profile of those ‘vulnerable’ households, their risk exposure, and the extent to which they are covered by public transfers and insurance mechanisms. The analysis shows that until 2010 most social programs, including the few with productive components, barely covered the vulnerable. The study calls for public policies to pay attention to the vulnerable and find a policy mix on the continuum between targeted interventions and universal insurance schemes to serve this income group.
  • Publication
    Poverty Convergence in a Time of Stagnation
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-10) Ortiz-Juarez, Eduardo; Lopez-Calva, Luis F.; Rodriguez-Castelan, Carlos
    This paper exploits a novel municipal-level data set to explore patterns of convergence in income and poverty in Mexico during 1992-2014. The paper finds that, despite a context of overall stagnant economic growth and poverty reduction, there is evidence of income and poverty convergence at the municipal level. The findings suggest that these convergence processes stem from a combination of considerable positive performance among the poorest municipalities and stagnant and deteriorating performance among richer municipalities. Re distributive programs, such as federal transfers to poor municipalities and cash transfers to poor households, seem to have played an important role in driving these results by bolstering income growth among the poorest municipalities, while also inducing progressive changes in the distribution of income.
  • Publication
    Declining Inequality in Latin America in the 2000s : The Cases of Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-10) Ortiz-Juarez, Eduardo; Lustig, Nora; Lopez-Calva, Luis F.
    Between 2000 and 2010, the Gini coefficient declined in 13 of 17 Latin American countries. The decline was statistically significant and robust to changes in the time interval, inequality measures, and data sources. In-depth country studies for Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico suggest two main phenomena underlie this trend: a fall in the premium to skilled labor and more progressive government transfers. The fall in the premium to skills resulted from a combination of supply, demand, and institutional factors. Their relative importance depends on the country.
  • Publication
    A Vulnerability Approach to the Definition of the Middle Class
    (2011-12-01) Ortiz-Juarez, Eduardo; Lopez-Calva, Luis F.
    Measurement of the middle class has recently come to the center of policy debate in middle-income countries as they search for the potential engines of growth and good governance. This debate assumes, first, that there is a meaningful definition of class, and second, that thresholds that define relatively homogeneous groups in terms of pre-determined sociological characteristics can be found empirically. This paper aims at proposing a view of the middle class based on vulnerability to poverty. Following this approach the paper exploits panel data to determine the amount of comparable income -- associated with a low probability of falling into poverty -- which could define the lower bound of the middle class. The paper looks at absolute thresholds, challenging the view that people above the poverty line are actually part of the middle class. The estimated lower threshold is used in cross-section surveys to quantify the size and the evolution of middle classes in Chile, Mexico, and Peru over the past two decades. The first relevant feature relates to the fact that the proposed thresholds lie around the 60th percentile of the distribution. The evidence also shows that the middle class has increased significantly in all three countries, suggesting that a higher number of households face lower probabilities of falling into poverty than they did in the 1990s. There is an important group of people, however, which cannot be defined as middle class from this perspective, but are not eligible for poverty programs according to traditional definitions of poverty.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    Morocco Economic Update, Winter 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03) World Bank
    Despite the drought causing a modest deceleration of overall GDP growth to 3.2 percent, the Moroccan economy has exhibited some encouraging trends in 2024. Non-agricultural growth has accelerated to an estimated 3.8 percent, driven by a revitalized industrial sector and a rebound in gross capital formation. Inflation has dropped below 1 percent, allowing Bank al-Maghrib to begin easing its monetary policy. While rural labor markets remain depressed, the economy has added close to 162,000 jobs in urban areas. Morocco’s external position remains strong overall, with a moderate current account deficit largely financed by growing foreign direct investment inflows, underpinned by solid investor confidence indicators. Despite significant spending pressures, the debt-to-GDP ratio is slowly declining.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    The Added Value of Local Democracy
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-08-30) Arora, Abhishek; George, Siddharth; Rao, Vijayendra; Sharan, MR
    Governments across the world have increasingly devolved powers to locally elected leaders. This paper studies the consequences of local democracy, exploiting a natural experiment in Karnataka, India. Local elections were postponed in 2020, resulting in appointed administrators taking over governance in villages whose elected leaders completed their terms that year. This created quasi-random variation in the governance regime across villages. The paper brings together a rich set of administrative datasets—budgetary allocations from the universe of 6,000 villages, more than a million public works projects, local bureaucratic attendance, welfare benefits, and a primary survey of more than 11,810 households—to estimate the impacts of local democracy. The findings show that local democracy aligns spending more closely with citizen preferences, but these gains accrue more to men, upper castes, and other advantaged social groups. Elected leaders are more responsive to citizen needs and cause local bureaucrats to exert more effort. However, appointed administrators perform better on aspects of governance that are aligned with their specialized skills. Local democracy improves governance in some domains, but it has no overall impact on economic outcomes or effectiveness of COVID-19 management.
  • Publication
    Argentina Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank Group
    The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.