Publication: Chad Economic Update - April 2022: Resilience in Uncertain Times - Harnessing Agriculture and Livestock Value Chains
Loading...
Date
2022-04
ISSN
Published
2022-04
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Chad’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 1.2 percent in 2021 - the second consecutive year of recession - driven by a two-month suspension of oil production at its Esso plants, economic disruptions due to sociopolitical insecurity, and liquidity constraints because of delays in debt restructuring. Low oil revenue, coupled with increased spending to deal with shocks, widened the fiscal deficit to 4.3 percent of GDP in 2021. The 2022-24 economic recovery is expected to be fragile and subject to significant downside risks related to recurrent and emerging sources of vulnerability. With a slow and fragile economic recovery, the adverse effects of the pandemic on poor and vulnerable households are expected to last in the short to medium term. Chad can seize emerging opportunities offered by the political transition, increasing oil prices, and debt restructuring to undertake reforms aimed at renewing its social contract and reducing long-term vulnerabilities. Stronger agricultural and livestock value chains are critical to economic diversification, sustainable growth, and food security in the medium to long term. Livestock is the economy’s most important non-oil sector and represents a major income source in the agriculture sector. The government should take bold actions to strengthen or create agricultural and livestock value chains.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2022. Chad Economic Update - April 2022: Resilience in Uncertain Times - Harnessing Agriculture and Livestock Value Chains. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37512 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Russian Economic Report, April 2015(Washington, DC, 2015-04)Russia's economy experienced two shocks in 2014. On top of the structural crisis that began in 2012, Russia had to deal with cyclical and idiosyncratic challenges to the economy. One of the new shocks illustrates Russia s integration into the world economy through its natural resource exports, and thus its dependence on the global commodity cycle: oil prices more than halved between July and December 2014, giving Russia a terms-of-trade shock. The ruble lost 46 percent of its value against the US dollar, which worsened already eroded business and consumer confidence. The monetary tightening in response made credit expensive, further dampening domestic demand. The other, more idiosyncratic, shock was related to the geopolitical tensions that began in March 2014 and led to economic sanctions. The tensions not only heightened perceptions that Russian investments had become riskier, they also dramatically increased the costs of external borrowing for Russian banks and firms. Spreads on Russian credit default swaps peaked in December at 578 basis points, compared to 159 a year ago. Together with the financial sanctions imposed on Russia in late July, which have restricted the access of Russia s largest state-connected banks and firms to Western international finance markets, this all but extinguished investment. The current World Bank baseline outlook, however, sees the national poverty rate increasing from 10.8 percent in 2013 to 14.2 percent in 2015 and 2016. Poverty is expected to increase because real disposable income and consumption will decline. This would be the first significant increase in poverty rates since the 1998-1999 crises. Russia weathered the 2008- 2009 crisis well as disposable incomes continued to grow slightly. Given the current limited fiscal space, additional support for the poor and vulnerable is likely to be less generous than it was during the 2008-2009 crisis. Although people at the bottom of the income distribution are the most vulnerable, there will be less opportunity for an increase in shared prosperity in 2015-2016, and there is a worrisome possibility that recent achievements might be reversed.Publication Kenya Economic Update, December 2011(World Bank, Nairobi, 2011-12)Kenya is entering a decisive year. Three main developments will make 2012 extraordinary. First, Kenya will hold national elections for the first time since the traumatic post-election violence of 2007-08, which ended Kenya's high growth momentum abruptly. Second, Kenya's economy will need to navigate through a severe economic storm, which could well become a hurricane, especially if Europe enters into a recession. Third, the country will implement its most ambitious governance reforms ever, namely the devolution of responsibility to forty-seven new counties. Kenya's policy makers will need to display tremendous skill and steadfast leadership in order to balance the need for fiscal prudence, with ensuring that resource flows to new local governments are sufficient to meet their needs. High expectations of the promise of devolution need to be met by equally high quality planning and execution of its delivery. Kenya will enter 2012 from a weaker-than expected economic position. Kenya's economy is navigating rough economic waters, where existing structural weaknesses have been compounded by short-term shocks. The most visible sign of Kenya's economic challenge is the depreciating shilling, which reached an all time low against the US Dollar in October 2011. The elements behind this situation are high international food and fuel prices, the drought compounded by conflict in the horn of Africa, the Euro crisis, widening fiscal and current account deficits, and major inefficiencies in Kenya's agriculture sector. The recent developments are also undermining one of Kenya's main strengths over the last decade: the credibility and predictability of its macroeconomic policies.Publication Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Update, April 2012(Washington, DC, 2012-04)Political uncertainties in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) continue to affect the short term economic prospects in the region, while major developments in the global economy over the past six months have put the region on a two-track growth path for 2012. These developments include a significant rise in crude oil prices on fears of oil supply disruptions and weak economic activity in the Eurozone. Economic growth of MENA's oil exporting countries will be strong as it rebounds from the average of 3.4 percent in 2011 to 5.4 percent in 2012. Overall growth in the region is expected to be 4.8 percent in 2012, surpassing the 3 percent growth achieved in 2011. Improvement in the growth prospects of oil exporters is due to strength in oil markets. The fiscal situation is expected to remain tenuous for oil importing countries, especially those going through transitions. Overall, inflation is expected to remain subdued in 2012, with the notable exceptions of Iran and Egypt. Subsidies are currently dampening currently dampening the effects of increased global food and energy prices in many MENA countries.Publication Malaysia Economic Monitor, April 2012(World Bank, Bangkok, 2012-04)The Malaysian economy grew robustly in 2011, outperforming forecasts. Growth was driven by domestic demand. Public consumption picked up more than expected toward the end of the year and fixed investment was also buoyant on higher investments by public and private companies. Private consumption spending remained strong, sustained by solid consumer credit, civil service bonus payments, and firm commodity prices benefiting smallholders. Inventories were a drag on growth as post- financial crisis restocking was completed. There is momentum to the reform agenda, but implementation could be accelerated. The government's transformation programs registered notable progress, but the challenge now is to go beyond quick wins and accelerate the implementation of more difficult, but critical, structural reforms that lie at the core of transforming the economy into a high-income one. Implementation can be assisted by increasing the coordination of related reform efforts (such as safety nets and education), building capacity within the civil service to lead reforms, and working towards consensus in key areas such as educational reform, subsidy rationalization and broadening the tax base.Publication India Economic Update, September 2012(Washington, DC, 2012-09)Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth has slowed to a nine year low of 6.5 percent for FY2011-12, from 8.4 percent in the two previous years. The slowdown was most pronounced in the industrial sector, and more specifically in manufacturing and mining. In the quarter ending in June 2012, industrial output growth as measured by the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) has been negative. The contraction was particularly pronounced in the production of capital goods, which is in line with falling investment demand on the expenditure side of the National Accounts. The current account deficit reached a record 4.2 percent of GDP in FY2011-12, because of decelerating export growth and high crude prices. Merchandise exports grew by 41 percent in September 2011, but their growth slowed to 2 percent by August 2012 (measured as 12-months cumulative exports compared with the same 12 months of the previous year). Inflation reached 7.6 percent in August 2012. This represents a marked slowdown since September 2011, but there has been an uptick in food prices in recent months. Also, higher domestic prices for fuel, which are necessary to rein in spending on subsidies, will contribute to inflationary pressure. Inflation is therefore expected to reach 8 percent at end-March 2013. Real GDP growth is forecast to reach around 6.0 percent in FY2012-13, after 5.3 percent growth Q4 of FY2011-12 and 5.5 percent growth in Q1 of FY2012-13. The slowdown is at least partly caused by structural problems. These include power shortages, which are partly caused by the financial difficulties facing the electricity sector as discussed in the special topic section of this update, the corruption scandals that have hit the mining and telecom sectors, investor uncertainty because of pending changes in legislation (mining, taxes, land acquisition), and the tightening constraints of land and infrastructure. Tighter macroeconomic policies, slow growth in the core Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, and worries about another global recession also weigh on growth. Important signals to revive domestic growth drivers to lift sentiment more than produce instant efficiency gains could come from reforms recently announced and, more importantly, the reform of direct taxes, the implementation of the long-delayed Goods and Services Tax (GST), and passage of the land acquisition and mining bills. This update also looks closely at two important topics for medium- and long-term growth, namely India's Right to Education (RTE) Act, which aims to shape elementary education, and the financial difficulties in the Indian power sector.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.