Publication: Romanian Fiscal Policies: Do They Fight or Exacerbate the Crisis?
Abstract
As the financial crisis deepens in Romania, public expectations from the budget and the Government's measures package remain high, but options remain limited. While some of the fiscal instruments proposed worldwide could arguably have benefic impacts on the Romanian economy if they could only be properly implemented, our budgetary sector is now constrained to adopt austerity measures. The fiscal policy needs time to regain credibility after years of incoherence, and commitments made in the elections year 2008 prove to be extremely costly today.
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Publication Policy Mix, Public Debt Management and Fiscal Rules : Lessons from the 2002 Brazilian Crisis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-02)Despite significant progress in economic reform throughout the 1990s, and an exemplary development of the policymaking framework in the second part of the decade, Brazil suffered a major public debt and currency crisis in 2002. Though the political origin of the uncertainty cannot be ignored, the author identifies other sources of uncertainty emanating from the policymaking framework: fiscal policy was not responsive to the shocks, public debt instruments were used with several objectives (to stabilize the currency and to lengthen maturity) and there was inadequate supervision of agents holding public debt. Most of the flaws have been fixed following the crisis: a) The primary fiscal balance has been increased, sending the signal that it is a flexible instrument that will be used to ensure commitment of the sovereign to honor its obligations. b) The central bank formally transferred to the Treasury the remaining debt-issuance functions, facilitating a more adequate balancing of different risks involved in debt management. c) Mutual funds' public debt holdings are better regulated, ensuring that end-investors have the proper information to assess the risk of the institutions in which they invest.Publication Fiscal Policies and Institutions for Shared Growth in Kenya : Lessons from the Global Crisis(Washington, DC, 2010-04)This report brings together three budget notes that assess Kenya's fiscal capacity to respond to global crisis and deliver shared growth without compromising macroeconomic stability. The report is organized into three notes. The key messages from this analysis point to areas where Kenya's fiscal policy requires strengthening. The first note is an assessment of Kenya's fiscal stance and suggests an appropriate fiscal anchor for Kenya. The second note reviews the status of public investment in Kenya and suggests the reforms required to improve public investment planning and implementation. The subject of the third note is pro-poor spending and targeted subsidy programs. This study concludes that the targeted cash transfers, unemployment benefits, and workfare programs provide automatic stabilizers for fiscal policy during crisis.Publication How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan(2009-06-01)The paper analyses how the global economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. It focuses on Tajikistan, the poorest member of the CIS but also highlights similarities with the economies of Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova. The main channels through which the global economic crisis will affect the low income CIS economies is through a sharp reduction in remittances from migrant workers in Russia and lower export earnings. The adjustment to this external shock will involve a reduction in imports, private consumption, domestic output and government revenue. Fiscal policy, constrained by very limited macroeconomic and fiscal space, faces acute challenges. Maintaining budget targets for fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing in the face of revenue shortfalls will lead to a tightening of the fiscal stance, exacerbating recessionary pressures and making it very difficult to protect priority social expenditures from cuts. To avoid these outcomes, external support from donors, preferably in the form of quick disbursing budget support, is required. If additional external budget support can be mobilized, the priorities for fiscal policy should be to protect spending on budgeted social sector programs and, if sufficient budget resources are available, to implement a program of labor intensive repair and maintenance of public infrastructure to provide employment for returning migrant workers. Tax cuts are unlikely to be an effective use of scarce budget resources, either to stimulate the economy or protect the incomes of the poor. Up scaling existing social assistance programs may be a feasible way to protect the poor in some low income CIS countries provided they are not as poorly targeted as in Tajikistan.Publication Subnational Fiscal Policy in Large Developing Countries: Some Lessons from the 2008-09 Crisis for Brazil, China and India(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2013-04)In response to the Great Recession of 2008, many national governments implemented fiscal stimuli packages in 2009 and 2010 to prevent further declines in aggregate demand and to jump start their economic recovery. Where subnational governments responded with fiscal contraction, as in the United States, the impact was muted; where states/provinces also expanded expenditures, as in China and India, the impact was magnified. Increases in recurrent expenditure, which were made in Brazil and India, acted as short-term stimulants; additional public investment, as in China, appears to have had a more lasting impact on growth. Large developing countries typically exhibit high interregional inequality in levels of development and global integration, resulting in differential magnitude and timing of the crisis impact. For example, coastal states in India were affected more severely and quickly than landlocked states; revenue moved in opposite directions in the two types of state in 2009. Where fiscal stress varies widely across subnational entities, central transfers alone cannot prevent pro-cyclicality of subnational fiscal response to a recession. There is need for flexibility in subnational borrowing within a sustainable fiscal framework. Many Indian states were able to maintain or accelerate their spending thanks to the additional borrowing permitted in 2009 and 2010. In comparison, limited borrowing capacity and lack of flexibility in federal grants restricted the contribution of Brazilian states to fiscal stimulus. Legal prohibition of subnational borrowing induced China's provinces to finance additional investments through extra-budgetary borrowing by nongovernment entities, with significant fiscal risks on account of contingent liabilities.Publication Investing in People to Fight Poverty in Haiti : Reflections for Evidence-based Policy Making(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014)Despite a decline in both monetary and multidimensional poverty rates since 2000, Haiti remains among the poorest and most unequal countries in Latin America. Two years after the 2010 earthquake, poverty was still high, particularly in rural areas. This report establishes that in 2012 more than one in two Haitians was poor, living on less than $ 2.41 a day, and one person in four was living below the national extreme poverty line of $1.23 a day. Extreme poverty declined from 31 to 24 percent between 2000 and 2012, and there have been some gains in access to education and sanitation, although access to basic services is generally low and is characterized by important inequalities. Urban areas have fared relatively better than rural areas, reflecting more nonagricultural employment opportunities, larger private transfers, more access to critical goods, and services and narrowing inequality compared to rural areas. Continued advances in reducing both extreme and moderate poverty will require greater, more broad-based growth, but also a concerted focus on increasing the capacity of the poor and vulnerable to accumulate assets, generate income, and better protect their livelihoods from shocks. Special attention should be given to vulnerable groups such as women and children and to rural areas, which are home to over half of the population and where extreme poverty persists, and income inequality is increasing.
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