Publication:
How Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistan

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorBrownbridge, Martin
dc.contributor.authorCanagarajah, Sudharshan
dc.date.accessioned2012-03-19T19:11:04Z
dc.date.available2012-03-19T19:11:04Z
dc.date.issued2009-06-01
dc.description.abstractThe paper analyses how the global economic crisis will affect the economies of the low income Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and discusses the fiscal measures which can be taken to help mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. It focuses on Tajikistan, the poorest member of the CIS but also highlights similarities with the economies of Armenia, the Kyrgyz Republic and Moldova. The main channels through which the global economic crisis will affect the low income CIS economies is through a sharp reduction in remittances from migrant workers in Russia and lower export earnings. The adjustment to this external shock will involve a reduction in imports, private consumption, domestic output and government revenue. Fiscal policy, constrained by very limited macroeconomic and fiscal space, faces acute challenges. Maintaining budget targets for fiscal deficits and domestic borrowing in the face of revenue shortfalls will lead to a tightening of the fiscal stance, exacerbating recessionary pressures and making it very difficult to protect priority social expenditures from cuts. To avoid these outcomes, external support from donors, preferably in the form of quick disbursing budget support, is required. If additional external budget support can be mobilized, the priorities for fiscal policy should be to protect spending on budgeted social sector programs and, if sufficient budget resources are available, to implement a program of labor intensive repair and maintenance of public infrastructure to provide employment for returning migrant workers. Tax cuts are unlikely to be an effective use of scarce budget resources, either to stimulate the economy or protect the incomes of the poor. Up scaling existing social assistance programs may be a feasible way to protect the poor in some low income CIS countries provided they are not as poorly targeted as in Tajikistan.en
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090618170130
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-4970
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/4164
dc.languageEnglish
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4970
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectACCESS TO EXTERNAL FINANCE
dc.subjectADDITIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectADMINISTRATIVE CAPACITY
dc.subjectADVISORY SERVICES
dc.subjectAGGREGATE DEMAND
dc.subjectBALANCE OF PAYMENTS
dc.subjectBALANCE OF PAYMENTS CONSTRAINT
dc.subjectBALANCE SHEETS
dc.subjectBANK LENDING
dc.subjectBANKING SYSTEM
dc.subjectBILL
dc.subjectBORROWING REQUIREMENT
dc.subjectBROAD MONEY
dc.subjectBUFFER
dc.subjectBUSINESS CYCLE
dc.subjectCAPACITY BUILDING
dc.subjectCAPACITY CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCAPITAL EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL GOODS
dc.subjectCAPITAL INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCOMMERCIAL BANKING
dc.subjectCOMMERCIAL BANKS
dc.subjectCOMMERCIAL DEBT
dc.subjectCOMMERCIAL FINANCE
dc.subjectCOMMUNITY ORGANIZATIONS
dc.subjectCONSTRAINTS ON ACCESS
dc.subjectCONSUMER
dc.subjectCONSUMER DEMAND
dc.subjectCONSUMER GOODS
dc.subjectCONSUMERS
dc.subjectCONSUMPTION SPENDING
dc.subjectCONTRIBUTIONS
dc.subjectCREDIT GROWTH
dc.subjectCREDITS
dc.subjectCREDITWORTHINESS
dc.subjectCRISIS MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT TRANSACTION
dc.subjectCURRENT EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectDEBT BURDEN
dc.subjectDEBT STOCK
dc.subjectDEBT SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subjectDEPOSITS
dc.subjectDEPRECIATION
dc.subjectDEVALUATION
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDISPOSABLE INCOME
dc.subjectDISPOSABLE INCOMES
dc.subjectDOMESTIC BORROWING
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CURRENCY
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEBT
dc.subjectDOMESTIC DEMAND
dc.subjectDOMESTIC ECONOMY
dc.subjectDOMESTIC FINANCIAL SYSTEM
dc.subjectDONOR SUPPORT
dc.subjectDUTCH DISEASE
dc.subjectECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC MANAGEMENT
dc.subjectEXCESS DEMAND
dc.subjectEXCESS SUPPLY
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE DEVALUATION
dc.subjectEXOGENOUS SHOCKS
dc.subjectEXPANSIONARY FISCAL STANCE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURE
dc.subjectEXPENDITURES
dc.subjectEXPORT EARNINGS
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL BALANCE
dc.subjectEXTERNAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subjectEXTERNAL DEBTS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FINANCE
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FINANCING
dc.subjectEXTERNAL POSITION
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCK
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL TERMS OF TRADE
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectFAMILIES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL FRAGILITY
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INSTITUTION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SYSTEM
dc.subjectFISCAL BALANCE
dc.subjectFISCAL BALANCES
dc.subjectFISCAL CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICIT
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICITS
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICIES
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFISCAL POSITION
dc.subjectFISCAL POSITIONS
dc.subjectFISCAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectFISCAL SURPLUSES
dc.subjectFISCAL SUSTAINABILITY
dc.subjectFOREIGN CAPITAL
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY DEPOSITS
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE
dc.subjectFOREIGN EXCHANGE EARNINGS
dc.subjectFORM OF CREDITS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEBT
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REVENUE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT REVENUES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectGROWTH RATE
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectHUMAN DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectIMPORT
dc.subjectIMPORTS
dc.subjectINCOME GROUPS
dc.subjectINCOME TAX
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINSTITUTIONAL REFORMS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL RESERVES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL TRADE
dc.subjectINVESTMENT DECISIONS
dc.subjectLACK OF COMPETITION
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectLIVING STANDARDS
dc.subjectLOAN
dc.subjectLOAN OBLIGATIONS
dc.subjectLOW INCOME
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subjectMARKET PRICES
dc.subjectMIGRANT WORKERS
dc.subjectMIGRATION
dc.subjectMONETARY FINANCING
dc.subjectMONETARY FUND
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectMONEY SUPPLY
dc.subjectNATIONAL INCOME
dc.subjectOIL PRICE
dc.subjectOIL PRICES
dc.subjectOPTIMAL ALLOCATION
dc.subjectPENSION
dc.subjectPENSION SYSTEM
dc.subjectPOLICY RESPONSE
dc.subjectPOLICY RESPONSES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRICE FLEXIBILITY
dc.subjectPRIMARY EDUCATION
dc.subjectPRIVATE CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectPRIVATE INVESTMENT
dc.subjectPRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT
dc.subjectPUBLIC BORROWING
dc.subjectPUBLIC DEBT
dc.subjectPUBLIC ENTERPRISES
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXPENDITURES
dc.subjectPUBLIC EXTERNAL DEBT
dc.subjectPUBLIC FACILITIES
dc.subjectPUBLIC GOODS
dc.subjectPUBLIC POLICY
dc.subjectPUBLIC SPENDING
dc.subjectPURCHASES
dc.subjectPURCHASING POWER
dc.subjectREAL CONSUMPTION
dc.subjectREAL EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectREMITTANCE
dc.subjectREMITTANCES
dc.subjectRESERVE
dc.subjectRESERVE MONEY
dc.subjectRESERVES
dc.subjectREVENUE MOBILIZATION
dc.subjectRISK OF DEBT
dc.subjectSAFETY NET
dc.subjectSHORT TERM DEBT
dc.subjectSHORTFALL
dc.subjectSHORTFALLS
dc.subjectSLOWDOWN
dc.subjectSOCIAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROTECTION
dc.subjectSOCIAL SERVICES
dc.subjectSTAKEHOLDERS
dc.subjectSTOCKS
dc.subjectSURPLUSES
dc.subjectTAX
dc.subjectTAX EXEMPTIONS
dc.subjectTAX RATE
dc.subjectTAX RATES
dc.subjectTEMPORARY EMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectTOTAL DEPOSITS
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTRADE DEFICIT
dc.subjectTRADE SHOCK
dc.subjectTRANSFER PAYMENTS
dc.subjectTRANSITION COUNTRY
dc.subjectTRANSITION ECONOMIES
dc.subjectTRANSPORT
dc.subjectUNCERTAINTY
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYED
dc.subjectWAGE
dc.subjectWORLD MARKET
dc.titleHow Should Fiscal Policy Respond to the Economic Crisis in the Low Income Commonwealth of Independent States? Some pointers from Tajikistanen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleHow Should Fiscal Policy Respond To The Economic Crisis In The Low Income Commonwealth Of Independent States? Some Pointers From Tajikistan
okr.date.doiregistration2025-04-10T12:16:32.941091Z
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000158349_20090618170130
okr.guid368651468117240836
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-4970
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20090618170130
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum10700201
okr.identifier.reportWPS4970
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2009/06/18/000158349_20090618170130/Rendered/PDF/WPS4970.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.administrativeEurope and Central Asia
okr.region.countryTajikistan
okr.region.geographicalEastern Europe
okr.region.geographicalCommonwealth of Independent States
okr.region.geographicalCentral Asia
okr.region.geographicalAsia
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Thumbnail Image
Name:
WPS4970.pdf
Size:
149.49 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Download
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
WPS4970.txt
Size:
57.64 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
No Thumbnail Available
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Plain Text
Description:
Download
Collections
Policy Research Working Papers