Publication: Using Labor Supply Elasticities to Learn about Income Inequality: The Role of Productivities versus Preferences
Loading...
Date
2020-01
ISSN
Published
2020-01
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper argues that labor supply elasticities encode information about the determinants of income inequality. In the theoretical framework, individuals choose labor supply conditional on productivities and preferences for consumption relative to leisure. The paper shows that reduced-form labor supply elasticities allow one to isolate the components of income due to productivities versus preferences. The paper then investigates what labor supply elasticities imply about the importance of productivities versus preferences in the United States. Estimates from the literature imply productivities drive most of income inequality. Larger income effects and larger differences between income and hours worked elasticities imply preferences play an increasingly important role.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Bergstrom, Katy; Dodds, William. 2020. Using Labor Supply Elasticities to Learn about Income Inequality: The Role of Productivities versus Preferences. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9102. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33151 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Dynamic, High-Resolution Wealth Measurement in Data-Scarce Environments(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-06)Accurate and comprehensive measurement of household livelihoods is critical for monitoring progress toward poverty alleviation and targeting social assistance programs for those who most need it. However, the high cost of traditional data collection has historically made comprehensive measurement a difficult task. This paper evaluates alternative satellite-based deep learning approaches using detailed household census extracts from four African countries to accelerate progress toward comprehensive, fine-scale, and dynamic measurement of asset wealth at scale. The results indicate that transformer architectures solve multiple open measurement problems, by providing the most accurate measurement of local-level variation in household asset wealth across countries and cities, as well as changes in household asset wealth over time. Experiments that artificially restrict data availability show the model’s ability to achieve high performance with limited data. The proposed approach demonstrates the promise of combining satellite imagery, publicly available geo-features, and new deep learning architectures for hyperlocal and dynamic measurement of wealth in data-scarce environments.Publication Firm-Level Climate Change Adaptation(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-10)Are firms adapting to climate change? This paper studies this question by combining geocoded World Bank Enterprise Survey data with spatially granular weather data to estimate temperature response functions for nearly 160,000 firms in 134 countries over a 15-year period. Our results show that market imperfections in low- and middle-income countries constrain firms’ ability to adapt. Small and medium-size firms in low- and low-middle income countries are most vulnerable, with revenues declining by 12 percent in years with temperatures 0.5◦C above historical averages. The impact is equally strong for manufacturing and services firms and result from declines in labor productivity and wages. Heat-sensitive sectors and less resilient firms are more severely affected, reinforcing the causal interpretation. Unique firm-level information on policy constraints including limited financing, burdensome regulations, and unsafe conditions suggest that such factors raise adaptation costs, undermining economic resilience to climate change.Publication Beyond the AI Divide(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-24)This paper examines global disparities in artificial intelligence preparedness, using the 2023 Artificial Intelligence Preparedness Index developed by the International Monetary Fund alongside the multidimensional Economic Complexity Index. The proposed methodology identifies both global and local overperformers by comparing actual artificial intelligence readiness scores to predictions based on economic complexity, offering a comprehensive assessment of national artificial intelligence capabilities. The findings highlight the varying significance of regulation and ethics frameworks, digital infrastructure, as well as human capital and labor market development in driving artificial intelligence overperformance across different income levels. Through case studies, including Singapore, Northern Europe, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Ghana, Rwanda, and emerging demographic giants like China and India, the analysis illustrates how even resource-constrained nations can achieve substantial artificial intelligence advancements through strategic investments and coherent policies. The study underscores the need for offering actionable insights to foster peer learning and knowledge-sharing among countries. It concludes with recommendations for improving artificial intelligence preparedness metrics and calls for future research to incorporate cognitive and cultural dimensions into readiness frameworks.Publication Indigenous peoples, land and conflict in Mindanao, Philippines(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-02-12)This article explores the links between conflict, land and indigenous peoples in several regions of Mindano, the Philippines, notorious for their levels of poverty and conflict. The analysis takes advantage of the unprecedented concurrence of data from the most recent, 2020, census; an independent conflict data monitor for Mindanao; and administrative sources on ancestral land titling for indigenous peoples in the Philippines. While evidence elsewhere compellingly links land titling with conflict reduction, a more nuanced story emerges in the Philippines. Conflicts, including land- and resource-related conflicts, are generally less likely in districts (barangays) with higher shares of indigenous peoples. Ancestral domain areas also have a lower likelihood for general conflict but a higher likelihood for land-related conflict. Ancestral domains titling does not automatically solve land-related conflicts. When administrative delays take place (from cumbersome bureaucratic processes, insufficient resources and weak institutional capacity), titling processes may lead to sustained, rather than decreased, conflict.Publication Who on Earth Is Using Generative AI ?(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-22)Leveraging unconventional data, including website traffic data and Google Trends, this paper unveils the real-time usage patterns of generative artificial intelligence tools by individuals across countries. The paper also examines country-level factors driving the uptake and early impacts of generative artificial intelligence on online activities. As of March 2024, the top 40 generative artificial intelligence tools attract nearly 3 billion visits per month from hundreds of millions of users. ChatGPT alone commanded 82.5 percent of the traffic, yet reaching only one-eightieth of Google’s monthly visits. Generative artificial intelligence users skew young, highly educated, and male, particularly for video generation tools, with usage patterns strongly indicating productivity-related activities. Generative artificial intelligence has achieved unprecedentedly rapid global diffusion, reaching almost all economies worldwide within 16 months of ChatGPT’s release. Middle-income economies have disproportionately high adoption of generative artificial intelligence relative to their economic scale, now contribute more than 50 percent of global traffic, while low-income economies contribute less than 1 percent. Regression analysis reveals that income level, share of youth population, digital infrastructure, specialization in high-skill tradable services, English proficiency, and human capital are strongly correlated with higher uptake of generative artificial intelligence. The paper also documents disruptions in online traffic patterns and emphasizes the need for targeted investments in digital infrastructure and skills development to harness the full potential of artificial intelligence.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Citations
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Optimal Taxation with Multiple Dimensions of Heterogeneity(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03)This paper develops a general theory of optimal income taxation with multiple dimensions of agent heterogeneity. The main technical hurdle in developing this theory is the possibility that individuals have multiple optimal incomes. Using a perturbation approach, optimal tax formulas are derived that account for the possibility that individuals have multiple optima and, hence, account for the possibility that individuals jump between their optimal income levels when the tax schedule is perturbed. The magnitude of these effects is quantified, thereby augmenting the optimal tax formulas from Saez (2001) with additional “jumping effect” terms. The paper provides a partial characterization of when individuals with multiple optimal incomes may exist under the optimal tax schedule. Finally, the paper derives a new methodology to simulate optimal income tax schedules with multidimensional heterogeneity. This method is implemented numerically, showing that individuals with multiple optimal income levels can exist under the optimal tax schedule.Publication The Role of Income Inequality for Poverty Reduction(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-01-07)This paper approximates the identity that links growth in mean incomes and changes in the distribution of relative incomes to reductions in absolute poverty and examines the role of income inequality for poverty reduction. Under the assumption that income is log-normally distributed, we show that we can approximate this identity well. We find that the inequality elasticity of poverty reduction is larger, on average, compared to the growth elasticity of poverty reduction and that the growth elasticity declines steeply with a country’s initial level of inequality. However, we find that prior changes in poverty were, in large part, explained by changes in mean incomes. This is a consequence of changes in income inequality being an order of magnitude smaller than changes in mean incomes. Overall, our results highlight the important role income inequality can play in reducing poverty despite prior poverty changes being, in large part, a consequence of economic growth.Publication The Targeting Benefit of Conditional Cash Transfers(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-01)Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) are a popular type of social welfare program that make payments to households conditional on human capital investments in children. Compared to unconditional cash transfers (UCTs), CCTs may exclude some low-income households as access is tied to normal investments in children. This paper argues that conditionalities on children's school enrollment offer an unexplored targeting benefit over UCTs: CCTs target money to households that forgo a discrete amount of child income. This paper shows that the size of this targeting benefit is directly related to the distribution of parental incomes, the size of forgone child incomes, and two elasticities already popular in the literature: the income effect of a UCT and the price effect of a CCT. These elasticities are estimated for a large CCT program in rural Mexico, Progresa, using variation in transfers to younger siblings to identify income effects. In this setting, the analysis finds that the targeting benefit is almost as large as the cost of excluding some low-income households; this implies that 41 percent of the Progresa budget should go to a CCT over a UCT based on targeting grounds alone.Publication Welfare Analysis of Changing Notches(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-07)This paper develops a framework to bound the welfare impacts of reforms to notches using two sufficient statistics: (1) the number of households bunching at the old notch who move toward the new notch, and (2) the number of households who “jump” down to the new notch. The bounds hold in a wide class of models, highlighting a new way to use reduced-form bunching evidence for welfare analysis without strong assumptions on the economic environment. These two statistics are estimated using a difference-in-difference strategy for a reform to the anti-poverty program Bolsa Famılia, finding that the reform’s marginal value of public funds lies between 0.90 and 1.12.Publication The Role of Inequality for Poverty Reduction(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09)Using World Bank PovcalNet data from 1974-2018 for 135 countries, this paper approximates the identity that links growth in mean incomes and changes in the distribution of relative incomes to reductions in absolute poverty, and, in turn, examines the role of income inequality for poverty reduction. The analysis finds that the assumption that income is log-normally distributed allows one to approximate the identity well. Using this approximation, both the growth and inequality elasticities of poverty reduction are calculated. The inequality elasticity of poverty reduction is larger, on average, compared to the (absolute) growth elasticity of poverty reduction. Moreover, the (absolute) growth elasticity declines steeply with a country's initial level of inequality. However, despite these results, most of the observed changes in poverty can be explained by changes in mean incomes. This is a consequence of changes in income inequality (as measured by percentage changes in the standard deviation of log-income) being an order of magnitude smaller than changes in mean incomes. Overall, the results highlight the important role income inequality can play in reducing poverty even if prior poverty changes have, in large part, been a consequence of economic growth.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Economic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06)World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.Publication World Development Indicators 2010(World Bank, 2010-04-01)The 1998 edition of world development indicators initiated a series of annual reports on progress toward the International development goals. In the foreword then, World Bank President James D. Wolfensohn recognized that 'by reporting regularly and systematically on progress toward the targets the international community has set for itself, the author will focus attention on the task ahead and make those responsible for advancing the development agenda accountable for results.' The same vision inspired world leaders to commit themselves to the millennium development goals. On this, the 10th anniversary of the millennium declaration, world development indicators 2010 focuses on progress toward the millennium development goals and the challenges of meeting them.Publication Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12)World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.Publication Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.Publication Macroeconomic and Fiscal Implications of Population Aging in Bulgaria(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-02)Bulgaria is in the midst of a serious demographic transition that will shrink its population at one of the highest rates in the world within the next few decades. This study analyzes the macroeconomic and fiscal implications of this demographic transition by using a long-term model, which integrates the demographic projections with social security, fiscal and real economy dimensions in a consistent manner. The simulations suggest that, even under fairly optimistic assumptions, Bulgaria's demographic transition will exert significant fiscal pressures and depress the economic growth in the medium and long term. However, the results also demonstrate that the Government of Bulgaria can play a significant role in mitigating some of these effects. Policies that induce higher labor force participation, promote productivity and technological improvement, and provide better education outcomes are found to counteract the negative consequences of the demographic shift.