Publication:
Estimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects : Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam

dc.contributor.authorIimi, Atsushi
dc.date.accessioned2012-06-06T20:24:29Z
dc.date.available2012-06-06T20:24:29Z
dc.date.issued2007-09
dc.description.abstractThe world is faced with considerable risk and uncertainty about climate change. Particular attention has been paid increasingly to hydropower generation in recent years because it is renewable energy. However, hydropower is among the most vulnerable industries to changes in global and regional climate. This paper aims to examine the possibility of applying a simple vector autoregressive model to forecast future hydrological series and evaluate the resulting impact on hydropower projects. Three projects are considered - in India, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam. The results are still tentative in terms of both methodology and implications; but the analysis shows that the calibrated dynamic forecasts of hydrological series are much different from the conventional reference points in the 90 percent dependable year. The paper also finds that hydrological discharges tend to increase with rainfall and decrease with temperature. The rainy season would likely have higher water levels, but in the lean season water resources would become even more limited. The amount of energy generated would be affected to a certain extent, but the project viability may not change so much. Comparing the three cases, it is suggested that having larger installed capacity and some storage capacity might be useful to accommodate future hydrological series and seasonality. A broader assessment will be called for at the project preparation stage.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/09/8267877/estimating-global-climate-change-impacts-hydropower-projects-applications-india-sri-lanka-vietnam-estimating-global-climate-change-impacts-hydropower-projects-applications-india-sri-lanka-vietnam
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/7332
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relation.ispartofseriesPolicy Research Working Paper; No. 4344
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.subjectAPPROACH
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
dc.subjectATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
dc.subjectAVAILABILITY
dc.subjectCARBON
dc.subjectCARBON DIOXIDE
dc.subjectCARBON DIOXIDE CONCENTRATIONS
dc.subjectCARBON EMISSIONS
dc.subjectCARBON MARKET
dc.subjectCHRONIC DROUGHTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGES
dc.subjectCLIMATE FORECASTS
dc.subjectCLIMATE MODELS
dc.subjectCLIMATE RESEARCH
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIABILITY
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIABLES
dc.subjectDAM
dc.subjectDAMS
dc.subjectDEMAND FOR ENERGY
dc.subjectDOWNPOURS
dc.subjectDRY SEASON
dc.subjectECONOMIC IMPACTS
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectELECTRICITY
dc.subjectELECTRICITY GENERATION
dc.subjectELECTRICITY PRODUCTION
dc.subjectEMISSIONS
dc.subjectENERGY STRATEGY
dc.subjectENERGY SUPPLY
dc.subjectEVAPORATION
dc.subjectEVAPOTRANSPIRATION
dc.subjectFLOODS
dc.subjectFLOW OF WATER
dc.subjectFOSSIL
dc.subjectFOSSIL FUEL
dc.subjectGENERATION CAPACITY
dc.subjectGLACIERS
dc.subjectGLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectGLOBAL WARMING
dc.subjectHEAD
dc.subjectHEAT
dc.subjectHEAT WAVES
dc.subjectHIGHER ENERGY PRICES
dc.subjectHYDRO ENERGY
dc.subjectHYDRO POWER
dc.subjectHYDRO POWER PROJECT
dc.subjectHYDRO STATIONS
dc.subjectHYDROLOGICAL DATA
dc.subjectHYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING
dc.subjectHYDROLOGICAL INFORMATION
dc.subjectHYDROLOGICAL MODEL
dc.subjectHYDROLOGICAL MODELS
dc.subjectHYDROLOGICAL RESOURCES
dc.subjectHYDROLOGY
dc.subjectHYDROPOWER
dc.subjectHYDROPOWER DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectHYDROPOWER GENERATION
dc.subjectHYDROPOWER PLANT
dc.subjectHYDROPOWER PLANTS
dc.subjectHYDROPOWER PROJECT
dc.subjectHYDROPOWER PROJECTS
dc.subjectHYDROPOWER STATION
dc.subjectHYDROPOWER STATIONS
dc.subjectINTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectIPCC
dc.subjectLAND USE
dc.subjectLOAD FACTOR
dc.subjectMETEOROLOGICAL OBSERVATIONS
dc.subjectPEAK LOAD
dc.subjectPLANT OPERATION
dc.subjectPOTENTIAL IMPACTS
dc.subjectPOWER PLANTS
dc.subjectPRECIPITATION
dc.subjectPRODUCTION OF ELECTRICITY
dc.subjectRAIN
dc.subjectRAINFALL
dc.subjectRAINY SEASON
dc.subjectRENEWABLE ENERGY
dc.subjectRESERVOIR
dc.subjectRESERVOIRS
dc.subjectRIVER
dc.subjectRIVER FLOW
dc.subjectRIVER FLOWS
dc.subjectRIVERS
dc.subjectRUNOFF
dc.subjectSEDIMENT
dc.subjectSOIL
dc.subjectTEMPERATURE
dc.subjectTURBINE
dc.subjectWATER CYCLE
dc.subjectWATER FLOW
dc.subjectWATER FLOWS
dc.subjectWATER LEVEL
dc.subjectWATER LEVELS
dc.subjectWATER USE
dc.subjectWEATHER
dc.titleEstimating Global Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Projects : Applications in India, Sri Lanka and Vietnamen
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Policy Research Working Paper
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/2007/09/8267877/estimating-global-climate-change-impacts-hydropower-projects-applications-india-sri-lanka-vietnam-estimating-global-climate-change-impacts-hydropower-projects-applications-india-sri-lanka-vietnam
okr.globalpracticeEnvironment and Natural Resources
okr.globalpracticeWater
okr.globalpracticeEnergy and Extractives
okr.identifier.doi10.1596/1813-9450-4344
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum000158349_20070910103932
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum8267877
okr.identifier.reportWPS4344
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2007/09/10/000158349_20070910103932/Rendered/PDF/wps4344.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeSouth Asia
okr.region.administrativeEast Asia and Pacific
okr.region.countryViet Nam
okr.region.countryIndia
okr.region.countrySri Lanka
okr.topicEnergy::Hydro Power
okr.topicEnvironment::Global Environment Facility
okr.topicWater Resources::Water and Energy
okr.topicClimate Change
okr.topicEnergy::Energy Production and Transportation
okr.unitDevelopment Research Group (DECRG)
okr.volume1 of 1
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relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoveryeeef1beb-b651-587f-bb16-a47ff170a096
relation.isSeriesOfPublication26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
relation.isSeriesOfPublication.latestForDiscovery26e071dc-b0bf-409c-b982-df2970295c87
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