Publication: A Survey of Poverty Research in Russia: Does It Follow the Scientific Method?
Abstract
This paper presents the first critical review of the literature on poverty published in Russia between 1992 and 2006. Using a dataset of about 250 publications in Russian scientific journals we assess whether the poverty research in Russia satisfies the general criteria of a scientific publication and if such studies could provide reliable guidance to the Russian government as it maps out its anti-poverty policies. Our findings indicate that only a small proportion of papers on poverty published in Russia in 1992-2006 follow the universally recognized principles of the scientific method. The utility of policy advice based on such research is questionable. We also suggest certain steps that could, in our view, improve the quality of poverty research in Russia.
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Publication Does Poverty Research in Russia Follow the Scientific Method?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-02)This paper presents the first critical review of literature on poverty published in Russia between 1992 and 2006. Using a dataset of about 250 publications in Russian scientific journals, the authors assess whether the poverty research in Russia satisfies the general criteria of a scientific publication and if such studies could provide reliable guidance to the Russian government as it maps out its anti-poverty policies. The findings indicate that only a small proportion of papers on poverty published in Russia in 1992-2006 follow the universally-recognized principles of the scientific method. The utility of policy advice based on such research is questionable. The authors also suggest steps that could, in their view, improve the quality of poverty research in Russia.Publication Who Bears the Cost of Russia's Military Draft?(2008)In this paper, we use data from a large nationally representative survey in Russia to empirically estimate the distribution of the burden induced by the military draft. We focus on draft avoidance as a common response to the conscription system ridden by corruption. We develop a simple theoretical model that describes household compliance decisions with respect to enlistment as a function of its pre-draft welfare. We employ the full information maximum-likelihood instrumental variable model to estimate the effect of household characteristics on the probability of serving in the army. Our results indicate that the burden of conscription falls excessively on the poor. Poor, low-educated, rural households are much more likely to have their sons enlisted compared to urban, wealthy and better-educated families. Using the predicted probability of draft avoidance, we estimate the short-term direct economic cost of the draft as lost wages of serving conscripts. Our results suggest that losses incurred by the poor are disproportionately large and exceed the statutory rates of personal income taxes.Publication Income Growth, Inequality and Poverty Reduction : A Case Study of Eight Provinces in China(2009)This paper examines the growth performance and income inequality in eight Chinese provinces during the period of 1989-2004 using the China Health and Nutrition Survey data. It shows that income grew for all segments of the population, and as a result, poverty incidence has fallen. However, income growth has been uneven, most rapidly in coastal areas, and among the educated. A decomposition analysis based on household income determination suggests that income growth can largely be attributed to the increase in returns to education and to the shift of employment into secondary and tertiary sectors.Publication Are There Lessons for Africa from China's Success against Poverty?(2009)At the outset of China's reform period, the country had a far higher poverty rate than Africa as a whole. Within five years that was no longer true. This paper tries to explain how China escaped from a situation in which extreme poverty persisted due to failed and unpopular policies. While acknowledging that Africa faces constraints that China did not, two lessons for Africa stand out. The first is the initial importance of productivity growth in smallholder agriculture, which will require both market-based incentives and public support. The second is the role played by strong leadership and a capable public administration at all levels of government.Publication Was Vietnam's Economic Growth in the 1990s Pro-poor? An Analysis of Panel Data from Vietnam(2011)International aid agencies and almost all economists agree that economic growth is necessary for reducing poverty, yet some economists question whether it is sufficient for poverty reduction. Vietnam enjoyed rapid economic growth in the 1990s, but a modest increase in inequality during that decade raises the possibility that the poor in Vietnam benefited little from that growth. This article examines the extent to which Vietnam's economic growth has been "pro-poor," giving particular attention to two issues. The first is the appropriate comparison group. When comparing the poorest x% of the population at two points in time, should the poorest x% in the first time period be compared to the poorest x% in the second time period (some of whom were not the poorest x% in the first time period) or to the same people in the second time period (some of whom are no longer among the poorest x%)? The second is measurement error. Estimates of growth among the poorest x% of the population are likely to be biased if income or expenditure is measured with error. Household survey data show that Vietnam's growth has been relatively equally shared across poor and nonpoor groups. Indeed, comparisons of the same people over time indicate that per capita expenditures of the poor increased much more rapidly than those of the nonpoor, although failure to correct for measurement error exaggerates this result.
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