Publication: Russia Economic Report, No. 43, July 2020: Recession and Growth Under the Shadow of a Pandemic
Loading...
Files in English
150,880 downloads
Other Files
55,813 downloads
Published
2020-07
ISSN
Date
2020-07-27
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The COVID-19 (Coronavirus) pandemic has triggered a deep global economic recession. The COVID-19 (Coronavirus) shock is the most adverse peacetime shock to the global economy in a century. The Russian Federation possesses a high-quality education system that is recognized internationally. Russia’s sustained growth in international standing is a result of continuous reforms and improvements and the building of a robust national assessment system. All these reforms to the education sector were supported by the attention and financial support of the government. However, the trends in education sector development appear worrying and call for the revision of policy priorities. This report focuses on the recession and growth of Russia under the shadow of pandemic with special focus on education as of July 2020.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2020. Russia Economic Report, No. 43, July 2020: Recession and Growth Under the Shadow of a Pandemic. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34219 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Russia Economic Report, No. 44, December 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12-16)In Q2, Russia’s GDP contracted sharply, faced with domestic supply and demand, and terms of trade shocks. Yet supported by exports, GDP growth performed slightly above expectations. In the third quarter, as COVID-19 cases declined, restrictions eased and on the back of fiscal, monetary, and regulatory measures. Economic activity showed signs of picking up, as reflected by some resumption in industrial production sectors and services. However, negative momentum is expected to continue in Q4 amidst rising COVID-19 infection rates and re-installment of some mobility restrictions. The COVID-19 pandemic weakened corporate balance sheets, especially in services sectors such as hotels, tourist agencies, railway and airpassenger transportation.Publication Russia Economic Report, No. 45, May 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05-25)The COVID-19 pandemic continues to disrupt activity across the world, casting wide uncertainty around GDP projections. Despite the protracted and uncertain nature of the pandemic, global GDP growth is forecast to recover to 4 percent in 2021 and to moderate to 3.8 percent in 2022 under baseline assumptions established in January 2021. The baseline recovery, however, is not sufficient to return global output to pre-pandemic projections by 2022, with levels expected to be 4.4 percent below pre-pandemic projections next year. COVID-19 has reversed hard-won gains in poverty reduction, with the pandemic expected to push over 100 million people into extreme poverty by the end of 2021. Accompanying the rise in extreme poverty is that of food insecurity, especially in light of the steep falls in household incomes due to widespread job losses – many of which are not anticipated to be regained this year. The pandemic is expected to have longer-term scarring effects on productivity growth and potential output, as the erosion of business confidence further weakens investment and as human capital accumulation slows due to a deterioration in health outcomes, extended school closures, and prolonged unemployment. Global trade continues to recover, but with wide variations across countries and sectors. Global financing conditions remain accommodative amid ongoing vaccination drives in major economies.Publication Kazakhstan Economic Update, December 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12)The fallout of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has hit the economy more than the crises in 2008 and 2015. The pandemic is projected to shrink by 2.5 percent this year. The economy is expected to grow modesty by 2.5 percent next year, based on an improved global economic outlook. This report estimates Kazakhstan’s poverty rate will increase to 12-14 percent in 2020 from a baseline of 6 percent Nevertheless, there are significant risks because of uneven economic recovery across countries due to the protracted pandemic and higher debt-related risks to the global financial market. The domestic financial sector is also exposed to a higher risk of growing non-performing loans if support measures are withdrawn.Publication Malawi Economic Monitor, July 2020(World Bank, Lilongwe, 2020-07)Malawi’s new Government has inherited a difficult situation: the global COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the country’s trajectory for a third straight year of faster growth, and tackling its impacts will present a considerable challenge. Growth improved to an estimated 4.4 percent in 2019, up from 3.5 percent in 2018, reflecting a rebound in agriculture. Improved agricultural production supported stronger performance in the industrial and service sectors. The uptick in growth also indicated resilience in Malawi’s economy in light of the impact of Cyclone Idai and considerable political uncertainty. The economy was on a trajectory for its third consecutive year of faster growth in 2020 before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The full extent of the epidemic’s negative impact is uncertain as the crisis is still unfolding, but a host of external and internal factors are dampening the Malawi economy. Global factors include both supply and demand channels. Disrupted supply chains have reduced imports of key production inputs, particularly from South Africa and China. However, exports from both countries have partially rebounded after their strict containment measures have been reduced earlier in the pandemic. Preliminary data indicates that imports were 26 percent lower in April and May 2020 compared to the same time last year. Increased trade logistics costs and delays are also affecting the flow of goods through borders. On the demand side, decreased demand from key trade partners is weighing on exports. The tobacco auction season through early July has seen a decrease in sales, with a 11.9 percent reduction in sales values, due to a 14.7 percent reduction in volumes partially offset by a 3.2 percent increase in average price. Tourism has already been severely affected. Remittances (through money transfer) decreased by 57 percent y-o-y in April before rebounding in May, when they were still 15 percent lower than the year prior.Publication Russia Economic Report, No. 31, March 2014 : Confidence Crisis Exposes Economic Weakness(Moscow, 2014-03)Real Gross Domestic Product or GDP growth slowed to an estimated 1.3 percent in 2013 from 3.4 percent of 2012. In January 2013, we projected 3.6 percent growth for 2013, but while the global economy has continued to improve at a moderate pace, Russia's is struggling to find its footing. The first part of this report explores the recent economic developments that underlie this slowdown. To emerge from the downturn with improved long-term prospects Russia will need a combination of cyclical and structural policy measures. As the relative weight of the reasons for Russia's downturn is tilted toward structural factors, structural measures will need to lead the rebound. The lack of more comprehensive structural reforms in the past has led to a gradual erosion of investor confidence. This was masked by a growth model based on large investment projects, continued increases in public wages, and transfers, all fueled by sizeable oil revenues. Recent events around the Crimea have compounded the lingering confidence problem into a crisis of confidence and more clearly exposed the economic weakness of this growth model. Investor pessimism became the decisive factor affecting Russia's economic outlook, presented in part two of the report. The special focus note in part three discusses the link between Russia's growth in the past decade and how it fueled an unprecedented growth in household welfare.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Doing Business 2014 : Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises(Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-28)Eleventh in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 185 economies, Doing Business 2014 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity: Starting a business, Dealing with construction permits, Getting electricity, Registering property, Getting credit, Protecting investors, Paying taxes, Trading across borders, Enforcing contracts, Closing a business, Employing workers. The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2013, ranks economies on their overall “ease of doing business”, and analyzes reforms to business regulation – identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. The Doing Business reports illustrate how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyze economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. Doing Business is a flagship product by the World Bank and IFC that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 60 economies use the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 870 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication World Development Report 2011(World Bank, 2011)The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.