Publication:
Urban Flooding of Greater Dhaka in a Changing Climate: Building Local Resilience to Disaster Risk

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (18.57 MB)
2,619 downloads
Published
2015-10-19
ISSN
Date
2015-10-19
Editor(s)
Abstract
Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh and one of the world’s rapidly growing megacities, is an urban hotspot for climate risks. Located in central Bangladesh on the lower reaches of the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, the city faces the recurring phenomena of urban flooding and waterlogging following intense rainfall nearly every year. As a low-elevation city with a tropical monsoon climate, Dhaka has a long history of river flooding as a natural hazard. Recent major floods have been worse in terms of depth and extent of inundation and duration, especially in fringe areas, where many of the city’s poor reside. Rapid, unplanned urbanization and the gradual filling up of low-lying flood plains, rivers, canals, and other water bodies traditionally used to drain or retain water during rainfall have exacerbated the problem. A growing concern is that, in a changing climate, characterized by heavier and more erratic rainfall in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) Basin during the monsoon season, the situation may worsen. The analysis in this book will help Bangladesh’s policy makers take targeted steps to mitigate urban flooding in Dhaka and improve the city’s resilience in the face of climate change and variability. Equipped with a host of investment options designed to address current flooding and further climate-proof urban infrastructure, local decision makers will be able to develop realistic, yet effective, strategies that prioritize interventions and sequence activities.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Dasgupta, Susmita; Zaman, Asif; Roy, Subhendu; Huq, Mainul; Jahan, Sarwar; Nishat, Ainun. 2015. Urban Flooding of Greater Dhaka in a Changing Climate: Building Local Resilience to Disaster Risk. Directions in Development--Environment and Sustainable Development;. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22768 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Democratic Republic of Congo Urbanization Review
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018) World Bank; Ranarifidy, Dina
    The Democratic Republic of Congo has the third largest urban population in sub-Saharan Africa (estimated at 43% in 2016) after South Africa and Nigeria. It is expected to grow at a rate of 4.1% per year, which corresponds to an additional 1 million residents moving to cities every year. If this trend continues, the urban population could double in just 15 years. Thus, with a population of 12 million and a growth rate of 5.1% per year, Kinshasa is poised to become the most populous city in Africa by 2030. Such strong urban growth comes with two main challenges – the need to make cities livable and inclusive by meeting the high demand for social services, infrastructure, education, health, and other basic services; and the need to make cities more productive by addressing the lack of concentrated economic activity. The Urbanization Review of the Democratic Republic of Congo argues that the country is urbanizing at different rates and identifies five regions (East, South, Central, West and Congo Basin) that present specific challenges and opportunities. The Urbanization Review proposes policy options based on three sets of instruments, known as the three 'I's – Institutions, Infrastructures and Interventions – to help each region respond to its specific needs while reaping the benefits of economic agglomeration The Democratic Republic of the Congo is at a crossroads. The recent decline in commodity prices could constitute an opportunity for the country to diversify its economy and invest in the manufacturing sector. Now is an opportune time for Congolese decision-makers to invest in cities that can lead the country's structural transformation and facilitate greater integration with African and global markets. Such action would position the country well on the path to emergence.
  • Publication
    An Investment Framework for Nutrition
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-04-12) Shekar, Meera; Kakietek, Jakub; Dayton Eberwein, Julia; Walters, Dylan
    The report estimates the costs, impacts and financing scenarios to achieve the World Health Assembly global nutrition targets for stunting, anemia in women, exclusive breastfeeding and the scaling up of the treatment of severe wasting among young children. To reach these four targets, the world needs $70 billion over 10 years to invest in high-impact nutrition-specific interventions. This investment would have enormous benefits: 65 million cases of stunting and 265 million cases of anemia in women would be prevented in 2025 as compared with the 2015 baseline. In addition, at least 91 million more children would be treated for severe wasting and 105 million additional babies would be exclusively breastfed during the first six months of life over 10 years. Altogether, achieving these targets would avert at least 3.7 million child deaths. Every dollar invested in this package of interventions would yield between $4 and $35 in economic returns, making investing in early nutrition one of the best value-for-money development actions. Although some of the targets—especially those for reducing stunting in children and anemia in women—are ambitious and will require concerted efforts in financing, scale-up, and sustained commitment, recent experience from several countries suggests that meeting these targets is feasible. These investments in the critical 1000 day window of early childhood are inalienable and portable and will pay lifelong dividends – not only for children directly affected but also for us all in the form of more robust societies – that will drive future economies.
  • Publication
    At a Crossroads
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-05-02) Ferreyra, Maria Marta; Avitabile, Ciro; Botero Álvarez, Javier; Haimovich Paz, Francisco; Urzúa, Sergio
    Higher education (HE) has expanded dramatically in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) since 2000. While access became more equitable, quality concerns remain. This volume studies the expansion, as well as HE quality, variety and equity in LAC. It investigates the expansion’s demand and supply drivers, and outlines policy implications.
  • Publication
    Options for Aged Care in China
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-11-20) Glinskaya, Elena; Feng, Zhanlian; Glinskaya, Elena; Feng, Zhanlian
    China is aging at an unprecedented rate. Improvements in life expectancy and the consequences of the decades-old family planning policy have led to a rapid increase in the elderly population. According to the United Nations World Population Prospects, the proportion of older people age 65 and over will increase by about one-fourth by 2030, and the elderly will account for about one quarter of the total population by 2050. Population aging will not only pose challenges for elder care but also have an impact on the economy and all aspects of society (World Bank, 2016a). The government is aware of the need to develop an efficient and sustainable approach to aged care. To this end, the General Office of the State Council issued the 12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Aged Care Services in China and the Development Plan for a System of Social Services for the Aged (2011-2015). It is now in the process of formulating the 13th Five-Year National Plan on Aging, which will further elaborate and finalize the reform roadmap for 2016 to 2020. The Plan is expected to be finalized and launched by June 2016. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) helped draft these plans and is now leading the development of policy measures for the provision of social services for the elderly. This volume has been prepared to support the translation of the broad ideas on aged care provision expressed in the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans and other government plans into reality and to help the government tackle the challenges described above. It strives to identify a policy framework that fits the Chinese context and can be put in place gradually. Specifically, it aims to provide an up-to-date understanding of the evolving aged care landscape in China; review international experiences in long-term care provision, financing, and quality assurance and assess their relevance to China’s current situation; discuss implications of current developments and trends for the future of aged care in China; and propose policy options based on available evidence and best practices.
  • Publication
    Transforming Karachi into a Livable and Competitive Megacity
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-02-27) World Bank
    With a population of 16 million, Karachi is the largest megacity in Pakistan. Despite being a large city that is home to many, it has seen a substantial decline in quality of life and economic competitiveness in recent decades. Basic service delivery is very poor, with very low indicators for water supply, sanitation, public transport and public spaces. Pollution levels are high, and the city is vulnerable to disasters and climate change. A highly complex political economy, institutional fragmentation, land contestation, crime and security issues and social exclusion exacerbate these issues and make city management challenging. The Karachi City Diagnostic and Transformation Strategy attempts to present detailed data on the economy, livability and key urban services of the city, by identifying and quantifying the requirements to bridge the services gap in the city. It also proposes pathways towards the transformation of Karachi into a more livable, inclusive and economically competitive city by outlining policy actions that the city can undertake. The first part of the report provides an in-depth review of Karachi and is organized into three themes focused on key aspects of city management: (i) city growth and prosperity – discussing city economy, competitiveness, business environment and poverty; (ii) city livability – discussing urban and spatial planning, urban governance and municipal service delivery (water and sanitation, public transport and solid waste); and (iii) sustainability and inclusiveness – discussing the city’s long term resilience based on fiscal management, disaster resilience and climate change, and social inclusion. In each section, a diagnostic is provided on the issues, along with possible prioritized actions to resolve them. The second part of the report concludes by identifying four pillars for city transformation. These include: (i) building inclusive, coordinated and accountable institutions; (ii) greening Karachi for sustainability and resilience; (iii) leveraging on the city's economic, social and environmental assets; and (iv) creating a smart city through smart policies and technology.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Climate Proofing Infrastructure in Bangladesh : The Incremental Cost of Limiting Future Inland Monsoon Flood Damage
    (2010-11-01) Dasgupta, Susmita; Huq, Mainul; Khan, Zahirul Huq; Masud, Md. Sohel; Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid; Mukherjee, Nandan; Pandey, Kiran
    Two-thirds of Bangladesh is less than 5 meters above sea level, making it one of the most flood prone countries in the world. Severe flooding during a monsoon causes significant damage to crops and property, with severe adverse impacts on rural livelihoods. Future climate change seems likely to increase the destructive power of monsoon floods. This paper examines the potential cost of offsetting increased flooding risk from climate change, based on simulations from a climate model of extreme floods out to 2050. Using the 1998 flood as a benchmark for evaluating additional protection measures, the authors calculate conservatively that necessary capital investments out to 2050 would total US$2,671 million (at 2009 prices) to protect roads and railways, river embankments surrounding agricultural lands, and drainage systems and erosion control measures for major towns. With gradual climate change, however, required investments would be phased. Beyond these capital-intensive investments, improved policies, planning and institutions are essential to ensure that such investments are used correctly and yield the expected benefits. Particular attention is needed to the robustness of benefits from large-scale fixed capital investments. Investments in increased understanding of risk-mitigation options and in economic mobility will have especially high returns.
  • Publication
    Guide to Climate Change Adaptation in Cities
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011) World Bank Group
    Cities face significant impacts from climate change, both now and into the future. These impacts have potentially serious consequences for human health, livelihoods, and assets, especially for the urban poor, informal settlements, and other vulnerable groups. Climate change impacts range from an increase in extreme weather events and flooding to hotter temperatures and public health concerns. Cities in low elevation coastal zones, for instance, face the combined threat of sea-level rise and storm surges. The specific impacts on each city will depend on the actual changes in climate experienced (for example, higher temperatures or increased rainfall), which will vary from place to place. Climate change will increase the frequency at which some natural hazards occur, especially extreme weather events, and introduce new incremental impacts that are less immediate. However, few climate impacts will be truly unfamiliar to cities. Cities have always lived with natural hazards, such as earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, and flooding. In some situations, cities will experience an increase in the frequency of existing climate-related hazards, such as flooding. Climate change considerations can be integrated with disaster risk reduction (DRR) in cities. DRR efforts already familiar to many may be used as a platform from which to develop climate change adaptation plans. In practical terms, disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation can be integrated in many instances, although cities should also consider incremental or gradual changes in climate that affect government operations or community life in less immediate and visible ways than conventional disasters. Approaches to collecting information on climate change impacts in a city can range from highly technical and resource-intensive, to simple and inexpensive. Technically complex assessments are likely to require collaboration with external experts, if a city is not large or well-resourced with sufficient in-house capacity.
  • Publication
    Vulnerability of Bangladesh to Cyclones in a Changing Climate : Potential Damages and Adaptation Cost
    (2010-04-01) Dasgupta, Susmita; Huq, Mainul; Khan, Zahirul Huq; Ahmed, Manjur Murshed Zahid; Mukherjee, Nandan; Khan, Malik Fida; Pandey, Kiran
    This paper integrates information on climate change, hydrodynamic models, and geographic overlays to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas in Bangladesh to larger storm surges and sea-level rise by 2050. The approach identifies polders (diked areas), coastal populations, settlements, infrastructure, and economic activity at risk of inundation, and estimates the cost of damage versus the cost of several adaptation measures. A 27-centimeter sea-level rise and 10 percent intensification of wind speed from global warming suggests the vulnerable zone increases in size by 69 percent given a +3-meter inundation depth and by 14 percent given a +1-meter inundation depth. At present, Bangladesh has 123 polders, an early warning and evacuation system, and more than 2,400 emergency shelters to protect coastal inhabitants from tidal waves and storm surges. However, in a changing climate, it is estimated that 59 of the 123 polders would be overtopped during storm surges and another 5,500 cyclone shelters (each with the capacity of 1,600 people) to safeguard the population would be needed. Investments including strengthening polders, foreshore afforestation, additional multi-purpose cyclone shelters, cyclone-resistant private housing, and further strengthening of the early warning and evacuation system would cost more than $2.4 billion with an annual recurrent cost of more than $50 million. However, a conservative damage estimate suggests that the incremental cost of adapting to these climate change related risks by 2050 is small compared with the potential damage in the absence of adaptation measures.
  • Publication
    Insurance against Climate Change : Financial Disaster Risk Management and Insurance Options for Climate Change Adaptation in Bulgaria
    (Washington, DC, 2014) World Bank Group
    Bulgaria is exposed to nearly all types of climate extremes, including floods, droughts, and others, as well as earthquakes. The combination of insurance products, early warning systems, information campaigns, infrastructure adaptation measures, and strict regulations can be very useful in tackling the negative climate change impacts. This note provides an overview of the insurance sector s contribution to climate change - related risk prevention and highlights some of Bulgaria s ongoing disaster risk management (DRM) efforts. The note aims to raise awareness and emphasize the role that financial disaster risk management (FDRM), including insurance, can have in climate change adaptation. Based on a desk review and preliminary in-country stakeholder consultations, the note s findings are meant to motivate new thinking and serve as an engagement tool for ongoing in-country discussions, as well to help identify analytical work to be carried out in the future. Based on the preliminary review of Bulgaria s specific context, several ideas are being put forward to be further explored in the ongoing discussions toward creating FDRM products to address the major natural disasters (in particular, floods, droughts, and earthquakes) and improving adaptation to climate change. Potential areas of analysis that can be further explored and, as such, plant a seed for future action can focus on promoting risk prevention and deploying insurance instruments, including issues around traditional risk management, technology innovation, compulsory disaster insurance, forecast insurance, and disaster insurance pools. The analysis which will assess the extent of vulnerability of the subjects covered by existing insurance products, can subsequently lead to the decisions on priority insurance products to be introduced in the future.
  • Publication
    The Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change : Methodology Report
    (Washington, DC, 2008-12) World Bank
    The proposed methodology begins with a consistent downscaling of projected climatic changes from a multiplicity of General Circulation to local levels. Subsets of the suite of downscaled climatic factors are then to be used to estimate the vector of impacts on key economic sectors of each country, using sector-specific impact assessment models. Based on this information, alternative government adaptation projects will be specified and optimally chosen subject to a government budget constraint. Thereafter, direct impacts of climate change will serve as inputs into a macroeconomic framework to examine the indirect inter-sectoral impacts of climate change as well as adaption strategies. Finally, at each step the analysis will be complemented with perspectives and insights of people whose livelihoods are being or will be affected by changes in climate. Impacts of the climate change and the benefits of specific adaptation measures will be examined in the context of sub-populations defined by livelihood profiles. Local-level analysis of past and present autonomous adaptation measures for a range of groups stratified by sets of livelihood profiles will be conducted using participatory rural appraisal based primary fieldwork in addition to holding participatory workshops and consultations.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Bangladesh Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2022-10) World Bank Group
    The World Bank Group’s Country Climate and Development Reports (CCDRs) are new core diagnostic reports that integrate climate change and development considerations. They will help countries prioritize the most impactful actions that can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and boost adaptation, while delivering on broader development goals. This CCDR identifies near-term policy and investment priorities that will support Bangladesh to continue progress in building resilience to the effects of climate change. Section 1 describes Bangladesh’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change and outlines estimates of the cost of mitigation and adaptation investments through 2030. Section 2 lays out the Government of Bangladesh’s existing climate commitments and plans, and evaluates the institutional capacities required to meet them. Section 3 highlights priority sector-level interventions to build climate resilience while meeting development goals. Section 4 presents potential synergies between decarbonization and development. Section 5 discusses the macroeconomic and distributional impacts of climate scenarios and identifies priority actions to support adaptation and growth. The CCDR provides additional analysis to prioritize actions to accelerate climate-resilient development in line with Bangladesh’s goals.
  • Publication
    Unlocking the Power of Healthy Longevity
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-12) World Bank
    Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are among the major health and development challenges of our time. Every year, about 41 million people die due to NCDs. This makes up about 74 percent of all deaths globally, the majority of which are in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Countless more people live with NCDs every day. Yet, NCDs are largely treatable and preventable. The risk of developing NCDs and deaths from them can both be lowered with appropriate attention to prevention and treatment. However, weak health systems and limited access to affordable care and information, especially in LMICs, contribute to lapses in seeking and receiving appropriate and timely care. This compendium is a compilation of 18 chapters, each exploring a different but related topic in the nexus of NCDs, human capital, and productivity. It is based on a series of analytical work taken up by the World Bank to support the Healthy Longevity Initiative (HLI) - a collaborative effort between the World Bank, the University of Toronto, and key academic and development partners including the Harvard University and the University of Washington. The HLI presents one of a growing set of efforts to increase the urgency of policy response to NCDs across the world.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    South Asia Development Update, October 2025: Jobs, AI, and Trade
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-07) World Bank
    Growth in South Asia is on track to exceed earlier expectations and reach 6.6 percent in 2025, but is expected to slow to 5.8 percent in 2026. While this short-term outlook is subject to downside risks, over the longer term, artificial intelligence (AI) could promote growth by boosting productivity especially among those 15 percent of South Asian workers who are in jobs where AI strongly complements human labor. Such a growth dividend could be amplified by trade reforms. Carefully sequenced tariff cuts, especially in conjunction with broader free trade agreements, would encourage private investment and job creation in trade-related activities, which disproportionately employ South Asia’s younger and higher-skilled workers and have accounted for most of South Asia’s employment growth over the past decade. This could particularly benefit manufacturing, where elevated tariffs on production inputs currently diminish competitiveness. South Asia’s governments can support the adjustment of labor markets to new technologies and trade opportunities by proactively removing obstacles to workers’ reallocation to new firms, occupations, and locations. Simultaneously, they could protect vulnerable workers during this period of change by streamlining and strengthening safety nets.
  • Publication
    From Risk to Resilience: Helping People and Firms Adapt in South Asia
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-13) Lang, Megan; Rexer, Jonah; Sharma, Siddharth; Triyana, Margaret
    South Asia is the most climate-vulnerable region among emerging market and developing economies. With governments having limited room to act due to fiscal constraints, the burden of climate adaptation will fall primarily on households and firms. Awareness of climate risks is high; more than three-quarters of households and firms expect a weather shock in the next 10 years. Climate adaptation is widespread, with 63 percent of firms and 80 percent of households having taken action. However, most rely on basic, low-cost solutions rather than leveraging advanced technologies and public infrastructure. Market imperfections and income constraints limit access to information, finance, and technologies needed for more effective adaptation. If these obstacles were removed, private sector adaptation could offset about one-third of the potential damage from rising global temperatures on South Asian economies. The policy priority for governments is therefore to facilitate private sector adaptation through a comprehensive policy package. The package includes climate-specific measures such as improving weather information access, promoting resilient technologies and weather insurance, and investing in protective infrastructure in a targeted manner. Equally important are broader developmental initiatives with resilience co-benefits: in other words, policies that generate double dividends. These include strengthening core public goods like transportation, water systems, and healthcare; addressing barriers to accessing markets, inputs, and finance without causing unintended responses that increase vulnerabilities; and supporting vulnerable groups through shock-responsive social protection.