Publication:
Uganda Economic Update, 19th Edition: Fiscal Sustainability through Deeper Reforms to Public Investment Management

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (3.9 MB)
114 downloads
English Text (261.99 KB)
21 downloads
Published
2021
ISSN
Date
2022-11-03
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
New shocks hit the Ugandan economy in 2022, just as it was recovering as the COVID-19 pandemic waned and related mobility restrictions were fully removed. Commodity price surges and disruptions to trade and supply chains because of the war in Ukraine worsened a global economy that was dragging under the weight of new waves of COVID-19 in some regions and unwinding of stimulus policies. The outlook for Uganda is now one of slower GDP growth with increased vulnerabilities, including in household incomes and food security. The authorities face the challenge to maintain a delicate balance between policies required to support and sustain a growth acceleration and ensuring stability otherwise the start-stop recovery as shocks evolve, will make it impossible for Uganda to build back better.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2021. Uganda Economic Update, 19th Edition: Fiscal Sustainability through Deeper Reforms to Public Investment Management. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38263 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Uganda Economic Update : Bridges Across Borders - Unleashing Uganda's Regional Trade Potential
    (Washington, DC, 2013-02) World Bank
    Despite having one of the world's highest rates of population growth, Uganda has an impressive record of economic growth and poverty reduction. Over a period of approximately 20 years, from the 1990s until around 2010, the average annual rate of economic growth stood at around 7 percent. During this same period, the proportion of the population living below the poverty line declined from 56 percent in 1992 to 24 percent in FY10. Uganda needs to sustain its efforts to deepen regional integration as a means of facilitating greater trade opportunities, but primary agenda remains it its own hands. The first point of action is to address constraints to productivity growth in sectors that have the highest potential for regional expansion, including the agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors. Uganda must advocate by setting an example by removing its own non-tariff barriers (NTB) as a means of encouraging neighboring countries. However, it also needs to use its position to persuade the coastal countries to do their part, since they will also benefit from such programs. In addition, Uganda must seize every opportunity to promote peace and tranquility in the Great Lakes regions.
  • Publication
    Uganda Economic Update, June 2014 : Reducing Old Age and Economic Vulnerabilities
    (Washington, DC, 2014-06) World Bank
    This is the fourth edition of the Uganda Economic Update series. As with previous editions, this update first provides information related to the current state of the economy before focusing on a particular subject of importance. The special focus of this issue concerns how pensions can reduce vulnerabilities at both individual and macroeconomic levels. The Ugandan economy has continued the process of recovery, growing by 5.9 percent during the first half of FY2013 and FY2014 amidst droughts, disruptions related to civil unrest in South Sudan, and aid cuts. Eight consecutive quarters of positive growth since the slump in FY2011 and FY2012 confirm that the economy has returned on the strong growth path and may reach a rate of growth of 6.0 percent per annum in FY2013 and FY2014. The positive outlook is subject to risks, key among which will be those emanating from its fiscal management regime due to continuous low revenue collection and reduction of aid to Uganda; increased spending pressures in the advent of the 2016 elections, and accelerating public investments amidst gaps in public investment efficiency. In addition, given its recently increased dependency on the South Sudan market for its exports, the protracted crisis in South Sudan could have severe consequences to the Ugandan economy. In that context, a coherent policy of social protection, including for the elderly, can promote social transformation and accelerate economic development. An effective social protection system is needed to protect vulnerable groups from negative shocks such as loss of employment, death of bread winner, or bad weather. Achieving the vision of a transformed Uganda means addressing vulnerabilities at both individual and at country levels. Uganda is already taking steps to start building an effective pension system, but challenges remain in ensuring transparent and proper governance of the pension funds; achieving efficiency objectives, building up the institutional capacity, and managing the fiscal pressures due to expenses to existing pensions and the new public pension scheme at the same time. Well designed and managed pension systems can contribute significantly to the country's ongoing transformation.
  • Publication
    Uganda Economic Update, Edition 24
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-04) World Bank
    The Ugandan economy continues to demonstrate resilience. Inflation in Uganda has significantly decreased, falling below the central bank’s target. On the external side, the current account deficit remained high despite some moderation due to improved merchandise trade performance. Fiscal consolidation efforts continue but need more focus on domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) to mitigate negative impacts on priority expenditures like human capital investment. The medium-term outlook for Uganda remains broadly positive, with significant downside risks. Human capital - the knowledge, skills, and physical health that enable people to be productive - will play a pivotal role in improving Uganda’s long term potential growth, especially for creating more jobs in non-oil sectors. The special topic of Uganda Economic Update (UEU) 24 focuses on the critical importance of early childhood development (ECD) for Uganda’s present and future prosperity. Early childhood is the most critical period for human capital formation, because this is when people acquire fundamental cognitive, social, and emotional skills that are essential for future productivity. Given the rapid pace of brain development in early life, investments in ECD are more effective and cost-efficient than attempting to make up for missed opportunities later.
  • Publication
    Uganda Economic Update, 25th Edition: Increasing Uganda’s Fiscal Space throughImproved Revenue Mobilization and Enhanced Efficiency of Spending and Service Delivery
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-26) World Bank
    Economic growth in Uganda remains strong. Real GDP growth accelerated from 6.1 percent in 9M-FY24 to an estimated 6.8 percent in 9M-FY25. This robust performance was mainly driven on the supply side by improvement in the commodity producing sectors as well as in manufacturing. This was particularly notable in pharmaceuticals and construction-related activities, which stood out. In contrast, the services sector recorded a broad-based deceleration. On the demand side, household consumption remained strong and a key contributor to growth, followed by government consumption. Moreover, gross fixed capital formation posted moderate growth, consistent with the rise in construction activity. High frequency indicators continue to support this dynamic growth, reflecting stronger demand, increased new orders, and higher output across sectors.
  • Publication
    Resilience Amidst a Challenging Environment : Cambodia Economic Update, September 2013
    (Washington, DC, 2013-09) World Bank
    According to the June 2013 global economic prospects, the global economic environment remains fragile, although the balance of risks is now less skewed to the downside than it has been in recent years. The US has been signaling an exit from quantitative easing. Developing country currencies have come under pressure, and their interest rates have been on the rise, contributing to inflation and weaker growth. This may complicate in particular those economies that have seen big increases in credit during the period when interest rates were low, or where current account and government deficits are high. Developing economies remain the main driver of global growth, but their output has slowed compared with the pre-crisis period. The Cambodian economy remains robust amidst the challenging global economic environment, and prospects for meeting the growth projection of 7 percent in 2013 appear favorable. In sum, the key messages include: (a) sustain robust growth by promoting diversification and enhancing competitiveness; (b) maintain banking and financial stability with effective supervision; and (c) improve fiscal management by increasing revenue and more efficient spending.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    World Development Report 2023: Migrants, Refugees, and Societies
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2023-04-25) World Bank
    Migration is a development challenge. About 184 million people—2.3 percent of the world’s population—live outside of their country of nationality. Almost half of them are in low- and middle-income countries. But what lies ahead? As the world struggles to cope with global economic imbalances, diverging demographic trends, and climate change, migration will become a necessity in the decades to come for countries at all levels of income. If managed well, migration can be a force for prosperity and can help achieve the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals. World Development Report 2023 proposes an innovative approach to maximize the development impacts of cross-border movements on both destination and origin countries and on migrants and refugees themselves. The framework it offers, drawn from labor economics and international law, rests on a “Match and Motive Matrix” that focuses on two factors: how closely migrants’ skills and attributes match the needs of destination countries and what motives underlie their movements. This approach enables policy makers to distinguish between different types of movements and to design migration policies for each. International cooperation will be critical to the effective management of migration.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2022
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-15) World Bank
    World Development Report 2022: Finance for an Equitable Recovery examines the central role of finance in the economic recovery from COVID-19. Based on an in-depth look at the consequences of the crisis most likely to affect low- and middle-income economies, it advocates a set of policies and measures to mitigate the interconnected economic risks stemming from the pandemic—risks that may become more acute as stimulus measures are withdrawn at both the domestic and global levels. Those policies include the efficient and transparent management of nonperforming loans to mitigate threats to financial stability, insolvency reforms to allow for the orderly reduction of unsustainable debts, innovations in risk management and lending models to ensure continued access to credit for households and businesses, and improvements in sovereign debt management to preserve the ability of governments to support an equitable recovery.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-01) World Bank
    Middle-income countries are in a race against time. Many of them have done well since the 1990s to escape low-income levels and eradicate extreme poverty, leading to the perception that the last three decades have been great for development. But the ambition of the more than 100 economies with incomes per capita between US$1,100 and US$14,000 is to reach high-income status within the next generation. When assessed against this goal, their record is discouraging. Since the 1970s, income per capita in the median middle-income country has stagnated at less than a tenth of the US level. With aging populations, growing protectionism, and escalating pressures to speed up the energy transition, today’s middle-income economies face ever more daunting odds. To become advanced economies despite the growing headwinds, they will have to make miracles. Drawing on the development experience and advances in economic analysis since the 1950s, World Development Report 2024 identifies pathways for developing economies to avoid the “middle-income trap.” It points to the need for not one but two transitions for those at the middle-income level: the first from investment to infusion and the second from infusion to innovation. Governments in lower-middle-income countries must drop the habit of repeating the same investment-driven strategies and work instead to infuse modern technologies and successful business processes from around the world into their economies. This requires reshaping large swaths of those economies into globally competitive suppliers of goods and services. Upper-middle-income countries that have mastered infusion can accelerate the shift to innovation—not just borrowing ideas from the global frontiers of technology but also beginning to push the frontiers outward. This requires restructuring enterprise, work, and energy use once again, with an even greater emphasis on economic freedom, social mobility, and political contestability. Neither transition is automatic. The handful of economies that made speedy transitions from middle- to high-income status have encouraged enterprise by disciplining powerful incumbents, developed talent by rewarding merit, and capitalized on crises to alter policies and institutions that no longer suit the purposes they were once designed to serve. Today’s middle-income countries will have to do the same.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2021
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-03-24) World Bank
    Today’s unprecedented growth of data and their ubiquity in our lives are signs that the data revolution is transforming the world. And yet much of the value of data remains untapped. Data collected for one purpose have the potential to generate economic and social value in applications far beyond those originally anticipated. But many barriers stand in the way, ranging from misaligned incentives and incompatible data systems to a fundamental lack of trust. World Development Report 2021: Data for Better Lives explores the tremendous potential of the changing data landscape to improve the lives of poor people, while also acknowledging its potential to open back doors that can harm individuals, businesses, and societies. To address this tension between the helpful and harmful potential of data, this Report calls for a new social contract that enables the use and reuse of data to create economic and social value, ensures equitable access to that value, and fosters trust that data will not be misused in harmful ways. This Report begins by assessing how better use and reuse of data can enhance the design of public policies, programs, and service delivery, as well as improve market efficiency and job creation through private sector growth. Because better data governance is key to realizing this value, the Report then looks at how infrastructure policy, data regulation, economic policies, and institutional capabilities enable the sharing of data for their economic and social benefits, while safeguarding against harmful outcomes. The Report concludes by pulling together the pieces and offering an aspirational vision of an integrated national data system that would deliver on the promise of producing high-quality data and making them accessible in a way that promotes their safe use and reuse. By examining these opportunities and challenges, the Report shows how data can benefit the lives of all people, but particularly poor people in low- and middle-income countries.
  • Publication
    Western Balkans 6 Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2024-07-16) World Bank Group
    This Regional Western Balkans Countries Climate and Development Report (CCDR) stands out in several ways. In a region that often lacks cohesive regional alliances, this report emphasizes how the challenges faced across countries are often common and interconnected, and, importantly, that climate action requires coordination on multiple fronts. Simultaneously, it illustrates the differences across countries, places, and people that require targeted strategies and interventions. This report demonstrates how shocks and stressors re intensifying and how investments in adaptation could bring significant benefits in the form of avoided losses, accelerated economic potential, and amplified social and economic spillovers. Given the region’s high emission and energy intensity and the limitations of its current fossil fuel-based development model, the report articulates a path to greener and more resilient growth, a path that is more consistent with the aspiration of accession to the EU. The report finds that the net zero transition can be undertaken without compromising the economic potential of the Western Balkans and that it could lead to higher growth than under the Reference Scenario (RS) with appropriate structural reforms.