Publication:
A Simple Methodology for Calculating the Impact of a Carbon Tax

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (761.64 KB)
2,989 downloads
Date
2020-08
ISSN
Published
2020-08
Editor(s)
Abstract
This technical note discusses how to implement a carbon tax at the national level. A carbon tax is a tax on fossil fuels, such as coal, natural gas, and crude oil (including fossil fuel products such as gasoline), that is imposed according to the carbon dioxide (CO2) each fuel emits when burnt. The rate at which this CO2 is taxed is known as the carbon tax rate or carbon price. This paper uses simple numerical calculations to model the effect of a carbon tax on fuel prices, fuel use, fiscal revenue, and CO2 emissions. A carbon tax would also have a substantial beneficial effect on local air pollution, although this is not explicitly modelled in this note.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Stretton, Stephen. 2020. A Simple Methodology for Calculating the Impact of a Carbon Tax. MTI Discussion Paper;No. 23. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34279 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Tax Policy to Reduce Carbon Emissions in South Africa
    (2009-05-01) Robinson, Sherman; Devarajan, Shantayanan; Thierfelder, Karen; Go, Delfin S.
    Noting that South Africa may be one of the few African countries that could contribute to mitigating climate change, the authors explore the impact of a carbon tax relative to alternative energy taxes on economic welfare. Using a disaggregate general-equilibrium model of the South African economy, they capture the structural characteristics of the energy sector, linking a supply mix that is heavily skewed toward coal to energy use by different sectors and hence their carbon content. The authors consider a "pure" carbon tax as well as various proxy taxes such as those on energy or energy-intensive sectors like transport and basic metals, all of which achieve the same level of carbon reduction. In general, the more targeted the tax to carbon emissions, the better the welfare results. If a carbon tax is feasible, it will have the least marginal cost of abatement by a substantial amount when compared to alternative tax instruments. If a carbon tax is not feasible, a sales tax on energy inputs is the next best option. Moreover, labor market distortions such as labor market segmentation or unemployment will likely dominate the welfare and equity implications of a carbon tax for South Africa. This being the case, if South Africa were able to remove some of the distortions in the labor market, the cost of carbon taxation would be negligible. In short, the discussion of carbon taxation in South Africa can focus on considerations other than the economic welfare costs, which are likely to be quite low.
  • Publication
    Carbon Price Efficiency : Lock-in and Path Dependence in Urban Forms and Transport Infrastructure
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-06) Rentschler, Jun; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Avner, Paolo
    This paper investigates the effect of carbon or gasoline taxes on commuting-related CO2 emissions in an urban context. To assess the impact of public transport on the efficiency of the tax, the paper investigates two exogenous scenarios using a dynamic urban model (NEDUM-2D) calibrated for the urban area of Paris: (i) a scenario with the current dense public transport infrastructure, and (ii) a scenario without. It is shown that the price elasticity of CO2 emissions is twice as high in the short run if public transport options exist. Reducing commuting-related emissions thus requires lower (and more acceptable) tax levels in the presence of dense public transportation. If the goal of a carbon or gasoline tax is to change behaviors and reduce energy consumption and CO2 emissions (not to raise revenues), then there is an incentive to increase the price elasticity through complementary policies such as public transport development. The emission elasticity also depends on the baseline scenario and is larger when population growth and income growth are high. In the longer run, elasticities are higher and similar in the scenarios with and without public transport, because of larger urban reconfiguration in the latter scenario. These results are policy relevant, especially for fast-growing cities in developing countries. Even for cities where emission reductions are not a priority today, there is an option value attached to a dense public transport network, since it makes it possible to reduce emissions at a lower cost in the future.
  • Publication
    Impacts of Carbon Pricing in Reducing the Carbon Intensity of China's GDP
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06) Cao, Jing; Ho, Mun; Timilsina, Govinda R.
    In contributing to global climate change mitigation efforts as agreed in Paris in 2015, China has set a target of reducing the carbon dioxide intensity of gross domestic product by 60-65 percent in 2030 compared with 2005 levels. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of China, this study analyzes the economic and greenhouse gas impacts of meeting those targets through carbon pricing. The study finds that the trajectory of carbon prices to achieve the target depends on several factors, including how the carbon price changes over time and how carbon revenue is recycled to the economy. The study finds that carbon pricing that starts at a lower rate and gradually rises until it achieves the intensity target would be more efficient than a carbon price that remains constant over time. Using carbon revenue to cut existing distortionary taxes reduces the impact on the growth of gross domestic product relative to lump-sum redistribution. Recycling carbon revenue through subsidies to renewables and other low-carbon energy sources also can meet the targets, but the impact on the growth of gross domestic product is larger than with the other policies considered.
  • Publication
    Calculating the Carbon Footprint from Different Classes of Air Travel
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Bofinger, Heinrich; Strand, Jon
    This paper develops a new methodology for calculating the "carbon footprint" of air travel whereby emissions from travel in premium (business and first) classes depend heavily on the average class-specific occupied floor space. Unlike methods currently used for the purpose, the approach properly accounts for the fact that the relative number of passenger seats in economy and premium classes is endogenous in the longer term, so adding one additional premium trip crowds out more than one economy trip on any particular flight. It also shows how these differences in carbon attributable to different classes of travel in a carbon footprint calculation correspond to how carbon surcharges on different classes of travel would differ if carbon emissions from international aviation were taxed given a competitive aviation sector globally. The paper shows how this approach affects carbon footprint calculations by applying it to World Bank staff travel for calendar year 2009.
  • Publication
    Economic Implications of Reducing Carbon Emissions from Energy Use and Industrial Processes in Brazil
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-07) Chen, Y.-H. Henry; Timilsina, Govinda R.
    The overall impacts on the Brazilian economy of reducing CO2 emissions from energy use and industrial processes can be assessed using a recursive dynamic general equilibrium model and a hypothetical carbon tax. The study projects that in 2040 under a business-as-usual scenario, CO2 emissions from energy use and industrial processes would be almost three times as high as in 2010 and would account for more than half of total national CO2 emissions. Current policy aims to reduce deforestation by 70 percent by 2017 and emissions intensity of the overall economy by 36-39 percent by 2020. If policy is implemented as planned and continued to 2040, CO2 emissions from energy use and industrial processes would not have to be cut until 2035 as reductions of emissions through controlling deforestation would be enough to meet emission targets. The study also finds evidence that supports the double dividend hypothesis: using revenue from a hypothetical carbon tax to finance a cut in labor income tax significantly lowers the gross domestic product impacts of the carbon tax. Using carbon tax revenue to subsidize wind power can effectively increase the output of wind power in the country, although the impact of the tax on gross domestic product would be somewhat increased.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Doing Business 2014 : Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises
    (Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-28) World Bank; International Finance Corporation
    Eleventh in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 185 economies, Doing Business 2014 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity: Starting a business, Dealing with construction permits, Getting electricity, Registering property, Getting credit, Protecting investors, Paying taxes, Trading across borders, Enforcing contracts, Closing a business, Employing workers. The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2013, ranks economies on their overall “ease of doing business”, and analyzes reforms to business regulation – identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. The Doing Business reports illustrate how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyze economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. Doing Business is a flagship product by the World Bank and IFC that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 60 economies use the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 870 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2011
    (World Bank, 2011) World Bank
    The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.
  • Publication
    Carbon Tax Guide
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-03) Partnership for Market Readiness
    Recent years have seen renewed and growing interest in carbon taxes that put a price on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This resurgence in interest has come as over three-quarters of the world have developed Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement and are looking for cost-effective ways to achieve these emission reduction goals. It has also developed alongside a gradual shift toward taxes on goods and services, with many jurisdictions seeking to use the tax system to achieve greater economic efficiency and to pursue a range of policy goals beyond raising revenue. Experience has shown carbon taxes to be versatile instruments that are capable of being adapted to a wide range of policy goals and national contexts. This Guide provides a practical tool to help policymakers determine whether a carbon tax is the right instrument to achieve their policy goals and to support them in designing and implementing a tax that is best suited to their specific needs, circumstances and objectives. The guide provides both conceptual analysis and important practical lessons learned from implementing carbon taxes around the world.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2006
    (Washington, DC, 2005) World Bank
    This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.