Publication: Bhutan Development Update, April 2014
Loading...
Published
2014-04
ISSN
Date
2014-06-12
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
After a policy-engineered slowdown in 2012, which saw GDP growth decline to 4.8 percent, the lowest since 2008, Bhutan's economy is expected to rebound to 6.5 percent this year, supported by hydropower construction and higher electricity and food production, following favorable rains. The tight fiscal stance introduced in 2012 has been maintained to bring spending in line with lower non-hydro revenues and a slowdown in foreign grant disbursements, but the revenue situation is expected to improve with the commissioning of cement and electricity projects. Bhutan's external debt, at 85 percent of GDP, remains high, but is likely to fall sharply as assured hydropower revenues begin to flow from projects for which the external loans were taken. However, its narrow exports base and the large rupee-reserves mismatch make the country vulnerable to shortfalls in external earnings and pose a moderate risk. Bhutan's success in reducing absolute poverty is noteworthy, with the poverty rate falling from 23 percent in 2007 to 12-13 percent in 2012, improving the lot of the poorest segments of the population rather than merely that of those clustered around the poverty line. A rapid growth of commercial agriculture, expanding rural infrastructure, and beneficial effects from the construction of massive hydropower projects has established a sound platform for further poverty reduction. However, continued out-migration to urban areas and vulnerability of infra-marginal groups, the relative absence of formal social protection institutions, youth unemployment, and the persistence of malnutrition, anemia and stunting point to the need for continued effort at tackling non-income poverty. The macroeconomic projections for 2014 set GDP growth at 7.3 percent, stemming from new projects, increased tourism receipts, easier credit conditions and the effects of the Economic Stimulus Plan.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2014. Bhutan Development Update, April 2014. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/18656 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Egypt : Economic Monitoring Note, Spring 2013(Washington, DC, 2013-03)The political situation in Egypt remains highly volatile and uncertain. The political environment is highly fragmented with increasing polarization between the Muslim brotherhood and other less organized factions that include secular and liberal parties as well as supporters of the former regime. At the same time, confrontations between the authorities and the judiciary continue to resurface. Following the controversial assumption of temporary exceptional powers, the president pushed forward a referendum on the new constitution in December which was approved by a small majority but with a low voter turnout. New Parliamentary elections were called in late February to begin in late April, but the election law was subsequently challenged in the courts. This will likely delay elections until August. Meanwhile, the key opposition parties have declared that they will boycott the elections.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2015(Washington, DC, 2015-04-20)The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Lebanon continues to be impacted by the domestic political stalemate and regional turmoil, particularly along its border with Syria. Economic activity picked up in the second half of 2014. Stronger economic performance and lower oil prices pushed real GDP growth to an estimated 2.0 percent in 2014, compared to 0.9 percent in 2013. One-off cosmetic and unsustainable measures rather than policy actions helped improve the fiscal balance in 2014. We estimate the overall fiscal deficit to have declined by 2.3 percentage points. Declining imports lead an improvement in the current account balance. In 2014, a fall in merchandize imports induced a 4.4 pp reduction in the current account deficit to a still-elevated 22.2 percent of GDP. This trend is projected to continue in 2015 helped by falling oil prices and a depreciating euro, Headline inflation plummeted from 2.7 percent in 2013 to 1.9 percent in 2014 and is expected to remain tempered over the medium term. Lebanon s economy continues to be exposed to external shocks. The border with Syria is increasingly menacing as coordinated attacks by ISIS and Al Nusra are being launched more frequently from their bases in Syria. Inefficiencies in power generation impose sizable macroeconomic costs on Lebanon. The Lebanese electricity sector has been underperforming for decades with considerable socio-economic costs. The macroeconomic impact has been massive.Publication Kenya Economic Update, June 2014, No. 10 : Take Off Delayed?(Washington, DC, 2014-06)Kenya's economy remains strong, enabling it to weather the headwinds it faces. Maintenance of macroeconomic stability and adherence to credible policies has underpinned Kenya's growth in the past. Continuing to adhere to these policies will help the country surmount domestic shocks, allowing it to grow 4.7 percent a year in 2014 and 2015. Addressing the pressures emerging from fiscal expansion is a priority. The large public sector wage bill and devolution have reduced fiscal buffers and increased fiscal risks. Kenya's health outcomes are not commensurate with its aspirations of achieving middle income status. Global evidence indicates that investing in primary health care is the most cost-effective way to improve health outcomes. Key recommendations to stabilize and sustain a robust growth include: (a) deepening fiscal consolidation without reducing infrastructure spending; and (b) expanding the engines of growth to include not only consumption but also investments and exports. Key recommendations that can help Kenya improve the delivery of primary health care include: (a) focusing first on making existing public primary health care facilities operational; (b) building on partnerships with faith-based organizations and partner with the private sector; and (c) the use of fixed facilities, such as inpatient services in many health centers that are grossly underutilized.Publication Bangladesh Development Update, April 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-04-01)Bangladesh moved closer to achieving the sixth five year plan target of reducing extreme poverty to 22.5 percent by 2015 as it sustained healthy gross domestic product (GDP) growth and moderate single digit inflation in FY2014. However, growth this year slowed relative to last year with declining remittances and losses due to political turmoil. Sound macroeconomic management kept inflation in check, although it increased somewhat due to the one-off effects of supply disruptions and wage increases. Official foreign exchange reserves increased to an adequate level as Bangladesh Bank intervened to keep the exchange rate stable. Weak demand for credit reduced interest rates. Monetary policy remained prudent while fiscal management challenged by shortfall in tax revenue, demand for support from sectors adversely affected by the political turmoil, and under-utilization of development budget. The fund's extended credit facility (ECF) is on track. Immediate challenges are to boost investments in power and roads; manage the transition in readymade garments; and stem the decline in remittances.Publication Financial Sector Assessment : Republic of Tajikistan(World Bank, 2009-03)Financial intermediation in Tajikistan has deepened in recent years, albeit from a low base. This is reflected in the overall growth of the financial system, greater diversification, and the expansion of lending to previously under-served sectors, such as agriculture and small- and medium-sized enterprises. Even after the expansion, however, the financial sector remains small and cannot serve all the financing needs of the economy. While banks are generally well capitalized and liquid, their rapid growth has brought new risk exposures that should be carefully monitored and appropriately addressed. In particular, rapid loan growth could lead to a build-up of unrecognized credit risk and give rise to an increase in non-performing loans (NPLs). Because of extensive dollarization, the exposure of banks to exchange-rate induced credit risk is another significant cause for concern. Also, the exceptionally rapid growth of nonresident deposits without clear knowledge of their sources exposes the banking system to reputational risk. Significant strengthening of the regulatory and supervisory framework will be needed to sustain the system's health in the face of rapid growth. Governance in the financial sector needs significant strengthening. Improvements are needed to ensure the integrity of the regulatory bodies and to guarantee that all financial transactions are conducted at arms' length and priced on a market basis. Fair and transparent resolution of the large stock of distressed cotton debt would demonstrate the government's commitment to market principles and good governance.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Fall 2024: Better Education for Stronger Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-17)Economic growth in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) is likely to moderate from 3.5 percent in 2023 to 3.3 percent this year. This is significantly weaker than the 4.1 percent average growth in 2000-19. Growth this year is driven by expansionary fiscal policies and strong private consumption. External demand is less favorable because of weak economic expansion in major trading partners, like the European Union. Growth is likely to slow further in 2025, mostly because of the easing of expansion in the Russian Federation and Turkiye. This Europe and Central Asia Economic Update calls for a major overhaul of education systems across the region, particularly higher education, to unleash the talent needed to reinvigorate growth and boost convergence with high-income countries. Universities in the region suffer from poor management, outdated curricula, and inadequate funding and infrastructure. A mismatch between graduates' skills and the skills employers are seeking leads to wasted potential and contributes to the region's brain drain. Reversing the decline in the quality of education will require prioritizing improvements in teacher training, updated curricula, and investment in educational infrastructure. In higher education, reforms are needed to consolidate university systems, integrate them with research centers, and provide reskilling opportunities for adult workers.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.