Publication:
Stagnation or Revival? Palestinian Economic Prospects

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (750.29 KB)
176 downloads
English Text (9.53 KB)
38 downloads
Published
2012-03
ISSN
Date
2012-08-13
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Palestinian Authority (PA) continues to experience a severe fiscal crisis, which threatens to become protracted given recent and projected declines in donor assistance. The PA is making a concerted effort to strengthen its fiscal position, including taking steps to raise domestic revenues and control expenditures. However, these efforts will not be successful unless they are supported by concrete and known actions of the Government of Israel, such as the sharing of relevant tax information on Palestinian revenues. In addition, in the short-term it is imperative that additional donor funding be identified as the PA simply cannot take enough steps to reduce the projected recurrent deficit to the currently expected level of aid. A continuation of the current trend of reduction in donor aid would likely aggravate the Palestinian fiscal crisis, potentially jeopardizing gains made in recent years in institution-building.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2012. Stagnation or Revival? Palestinian Economic Prospects. MENA Knowledge and Learning Quick Notes Series; No. 61. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/10843 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Stagnation or Revival?
    (Washington, DC, 2012-03-21) World Bank
    This report begins by documenting the Palestinian Authority's (PA's) ongoing fiscal crisis that threatens its ability to provide basic services to the population. In 2011, the PA required about US$1.5 billion dollars in budget support, of which US$200 million to cover development expenses not funded directly by donors. However, it only received about US$814 million in budget support and US$169 million in development financing, for a total of US$983 million. Ultimately, the PA can only hope to achieve fiscal sustainability through a combination of sustained private sector growth and continued internal reforms. Robust private sector growth is necessary for the PA to generate the revenues needed to sustain service delivery. Yet the private sector remains stifled as a result of Israeli restrictions on access to natural resources and markets. The West Bank has experienced a slowdown in economic growth in 2011, combined with double-digit growth in Gaza. The recovery in Gaza can be attributed to a combination of aid inflows and easing of restrictions on entry of goods from Israel-though it is important to keep in mind that the average Gaza today is worse off than s/he was back in the late nineties. The recent growth in Gaza is also driven largely by a boom in the construction sector, and Gaza infrastructure exhibits such gaps and disrepair that major investments are necessary and would generate important employment as well as future growth. The slowdown in growth in the West Bank, on the other hand, is the result of falling donor support, uncertainty caused by the PA's fiscal crisis, and lack of significant new easing of restrictions by the Government of Israel (GoI).
  • Publication
    Sustaining Achievements in Palestinian Institution-Building and Economic Growth
    (Washington, DC, 2011-09-18) World Bank
    Sustainable economic growth and strong institutions are interlinked, and the present report summarizes recent economic and fiscal developments in West Bank and Gaza (WB&G) as well as providing a broad overview of institutional accomplishments to date. The present report begins by discussing the apparent slowdown in economic growth in WB&G and the current fiscal crisis facing the Palestinian Authority (PA)-resulting partly from lower-than-expected external support this year. A further drop in donor funding would likely reduce growth, which would in turn further aggravate the fiscal situation in the coming year. A protracted fiscal crisis, in turn, risks jeopardizing the gains made in institution-building and thereby losing what has been painstakingly achieved over the past years. In addition, the report highlights that in order for the PA to sustain the reform momentum and its achievements in institution-building, remaining Israeli restrictions must be lifted and any reductions in international aid flows must be carefully calibrated and managed. Economic growth in WB&G has slowed down in 2011, and together with the shortfall in external financing, this has led to a fiscal crisis for the PA. Economic growth in WB&G remains robust but appears to be slowing due to economic and political uncertainty, so that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised the projected real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate for 2011 from 9 down to 7 percent. Despite some improvement, unemployment remains stubbornly high and labor force participation low in WB&G.
  • Publication
    Towards a Palestinian State
    (Washington, DC, 2010-04-13) World Bank
    The thirteenth government of the Palestinian Authority (PA) presented in August 2009 a program entitled Palestine: ending the occupation, establishing the state (hereafter referred to as the program) that lays out the vision, foundational principles, and national goals for the future Palestinian state, as well as institution-building and sector priorities. This report will therefore begin by discussing recent trends in the economic restrictions imposed by the Government of Israel (GoI) on West Bank and Gaza (WB&G). The next section will focus on an analysis of economic and fiscal developments, highlighting the fact that WB&G experienced in 2009 a third consecutive year of economic growth and rising per capita GDP, driven by large inflows of external assistance and a relatively stable security situation. Despite the growth, however, the recurrent deficit rose from roughly US$1.3 billion in 2008 to US$1.6 billion on a commitment basis in 2009, mostly as a result of emergency spending in Gaza in the aftermath of Israel s military operation (operation cast lead, December 27, 2008, January 18, 2009) as well as arrears brought forward from 2008 and recognized as commitments in 2009. Given this finding, the discussion in remainder of the report is particularly relevant, focusing on the reform areas of fiscal strengthening and improved public financial management and the important role played by local governments in this regard.
  • Publication
    Palestinian Economic Prospects
    (Washington, DC, 2009-06-08) World Bank
    In its report to the September 22, 2008 meeting of the Ad Hoc Liaison Committee (AHLC), the World Bank noted that the Palestinian Authority (PA), Israel, and the international donor community made some progress on the three parallel conditions for Palestinian economic revival, albeit to different degrees. The report notes the dramatic impact of Israel s recent three-week offensive in Gaza and analyzes the variety of recovery and reconstruction schemes being explored by the donor community. We find that these have not yet led to any significant impact on the ground due to the continued closure imposed on Gaza. The devastation in Gaza, coupled with a fluid political environment in both the PA and Israel, has made it necessary for this report to revisit the fundamentals of donor support to the PA in view of the long-term goal of establishing an economically viable Palestinian state independent of external aid. Examination through this lens reveals a fundamentally flawed picture.
  • Publication
    Tanzania Economic Update : Who Wants a Job?
    (Washington, DC, 2014-06) World Bank
    This fifth economic update also examines prospects for economic prosperity in the context of rapid urbanization; in particular, how the growth of cities can be harnessed to create productive jobs for a labor force that is expected to double in the next 15 years. By 2030, Dar es Salaam will be a mega city of over 10 million people. As demonstrated by many countries in the world, cities encourage the creation and expansion of businesses by reducing distances between suppliers and customers. Can Dar es Salaam and other Tanzanian urban areas become thriving cities? Can they avoid becoming metropolis slums? Urbanization comes with significant challenges, notably in terms of increased pressure on infrastructure, housing, and service provision. The quality of the business climate in urban Tanzania will need to be improved, as most small and large entrepreneurs suffer from the uncertainty, corruption, and insecurity that characterize the business environment. This economic update argues that these challenges need to be addressed with a sense of urgency.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Rwanda Diagnostic Review of Consumer Protection and Financial Literacy
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-11) World Bank
    Although the Parliament of Rwanda has passed an impressive array of financial sector laws since 2008, the laws relevant to financial consumer protection are very limited and in some cases overlapping. Consumer protection in Rwandan banking, microfinance, and insurance sectors is fragmented because of insufficiently defined roles and responsibilities among institutions and unclear enforcement capacity. While there are some strong provisions in some areas such as electronic money transfer, electronic transmission, credit information, and market conduct regulation in the insurance industry, many other areas are lagging. Rwandan authorities recognize that a sound financial consumer protection framework is fundamental to improving usage and quality of financial services, access to them, and overall deepening of the financial sector. This World Bank diagnostic review was requested by the National Bank of Rwanda (BNR) in November 2012. Modules on banking and microfinance sectors were developed based on publicly available information and data during the World Bank mission in Rwanda, and the review of the insurance sector was conducted through a desk review using the data obtained from BNR data requests and questionnaires, and the analysis is therefore constrained by it. Volume I of the review summarizes its key findings and recommendations, and volume II provides a detailed assessment against the World Bank’s good practices on financial consumer protection.
  • Publication
    Accessing Economic and Political Impacts of Hydrological Variability on Treaties : Case Studies on the Zambezi and Mekong Basins
    (2012-03-01) Blankespoor, Brian; Basist, Alan; Dinar, Ariel; Dinar, Shlomi
    International river basins will likely face higher hydrologic variability due to climate change. Increased floods and droughts would have economic and political consequences. Riparians of transboundary basins governed by water treaties could experience non-compliance and inter-state tensions if flow falls below levels presumed in a treaty. Flow information is essential to cope with these challenges through water storage, allocation, and use. This paper demonstrates a simple yet robust method, which measures gauge station runoff with wetness values derived from satellite data (1988-2010), for expanding sub-basin stream flow information to the entire river basin where natural flow information is limited. It demonstrates the approach with flow level data that provide estimates of monthly runoff in near real time in two international river basins: Zambezi and Mekong. The paper includes an economic framework incorporating information on existing institutions to assess potential economic and political impacts and to inform policy on conflict and cooperation between riparians. The authors conclude that satellite data modeled with gauge station runoff reduce the uncertainty inherent in negotiating an international water agreement under increased hydrological variability, and thus can assist policy makers to devise more efficient institutional apparatus.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    Strategic Planning for Poverty Reduction in Vietnam : Progress and Challenges for Meeting the Localized Millennium Development Goals
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-01) Swinkels, Rob; Turk, Carrie
    This paper discusses the progress that Vietnam has made toward meeting a core set of development goals that the government recently adopted as part of its Comprehensive Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy (CPRGS). These goals are strongly related to the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), but are adapted and expanded to reflect Vietnam's national challenges and the government's ambitious development plans. For each Vietnam Development Goal, the authors describe recent trends in relation to the trajectories implied by the MDGs, outline the intermediate targets identified by the government, and discuss the challenges involved in meeting these. Relative to other countries of similar per capita expenditures, Vietnam has made rapid progress in a number of key areas. Poverty has halved over the 1990s, enrollment rates in primary education have risen to 91 percent (although there is a quality problem), indicators of gender equity have been strengthened, child mortality has been reduced, maternal health has improved, and real progress has been made in combating malaria and other communicable diseases. In contrast, Vietnam scores worse than other comparable countries in the areas of child malnutrition, access to clean water, and combating HIV/AIDS. A number of important crosscutting issues emerge from this analysis that need to be addressed. One such challenge is improving equity, both in terms of ensuring that the benefits of growth are distributed evenly across the population and in terms of access to public services. This will involve addressing the affordability of education and curative health care for poor households. Improvements in public expenditure planning are needed to align resources better to stated desired outcomes and to link nationally-defined targets to subnational planning and budgeting processes. There is also a need to address capacity and data gaps which will be crucial for effective monitoring.
  • Publication
    How Does Violence Force Displacement during Active Conflict?
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-09) D'Souza, Anna; Favari, Eliana; Krishnaswamy, Siddharth; Tandon, Sharad
    The ways in which violence forces displacement are not well understood given difficulties in collecting data during conflict. This paper investigates this issue during the Republic of Yemen's conflict, which has led to a large forced displacement crisis. First, it demonstrates that violence significantly escalated leading up to and following displacement in the districts from which displaced households fled, and this escalation exceeded that of households that did not become displaced and that of regions to which displaced households moved. Second, the paper demonstrates that the escalation of violence around the time of displacement varied by type of violence. Violence from ground battles escalated leading up to and following displacement- the type of violence with the largest number of fatalities per violent incident and that is most associated with the capture of territory; but other prevalent types of violence either peaked prior to displacement or did not appear to be strongly associated with displacement. And third, it demonstrates that there was a significant amount of heterogeneity in the violence experienced by households before displacement. A significant share of displaced households fled during times of no violence, but violence escalated in the regions from which these households fled following displacement. The paper argues that the last result is likely explained, in part, by these households being more averse to potential violence than other Yemeni households were. Combined, these results corroborate that violence is pivotal to forced displacement, but further illustrate the complexities of deciding whether and when to become displaced.