2022-01, Fajgelbaum, Pablo, Goldberg, Pinelopi, Kennedy, Patrick, Khandelwal, Amit, Taglioni, Daria

This paper studies global trade responses to the US-China trade war. It estimates the tariff impacts on product-level exports to the US, China, and rest of world. On average, countries decreased exports to China and increased exports to the US and rest of world. Most countries export products that complement the US and substitute China, and a subset operate along downward-sloping supplies. Heterogeneity in responses, rather than specialization, drives export variation across countries. Surprisingly, global trade increased in the products targeted by tariffs. Thus, despite ending the trend towards tariff reductions, the trade war did not halt global trade growth.

2021-09, Borin, Alessandro, Mancini, Michele, Taglioni, Daria

This paper presents a new approach to measuring Global Value Chain (GVC) participation, essential for informed policy-making. It introduces a tripartite classification of GVC involvement—backward, forward, and two-sided— extending beyond trade to include production data. GVCs, vital for global economic growth, are networks through which companies internationally produce goods and services. The advanced framework accurately assesses how different combinations of domestic output, trade, and GVC integration correlate with growth and output stability. The paper finds that traditional trade-based GVC metrics significantly underestimate global GVC activity and misrepresent participation in key sectors like services and upstream manufacturing. They also exaggerate risks during critical stages like early trade liberalization in large economies. Additionally, it shows that traditional backward-forward classifications overestimate backward linkages. The new metrics, applied to established models, effectively predict trade disruption impacts, indicating that GVC participation increases exposure to external shocks but also enhances overall output stability by mitigating local shocks. Furthermore, GVC participation is a key driver of the positive trade-income growth correlation. The complete dataset of these new measures is available on the World Bank’s WITS Platform, and it is regularly updated, providing a key resource for GVC analysis.

2016-08-22, Safadi, Raed, Cusolito, Ana Paula, Taglioni, Daria

This report's focus is making global value chains (GVCs) more inclusive. To achieve inclusiveness is by overcoming participation constraints for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) and facilitation access for Low Income Developing Countries (LIDCs). The underlying assumption is that most firms in LIDCs are SMEs. Even larger firms in LIDCs are likely to face similar challenges to SMEs, including a less supportive domestic operating environment and weaker institutions that lead to higher fixed costs and challenges to compete on the international markets. The two major points of this report are (1) participation in GVCs is heterogeneous and uneven, across and within countries, and (2) available data and survey-based evidence suggest that SMEs’ participation in GVCs is mostly taking place through indirect contribution to exports, rather than through exporting directly. The report makes the case that policy action, at the national and multilateral level, can make a difference in achieving more inclusive GVCs through: a holistic approach to reform spanning trade, investment, and domestic policies countries and investments in expanding the statistical base and analysis of GVCs and in sharing knowledge on best practices on enabling policies and programs. The report elaborates on three broad areas of recommendations: (1) establishing a trade and investment action plan for inclusiveness defining clear and achievable objectives on trade and investment policy and identifying the necessary complementary domestic policy actions; (2) complementing trade, investment, and domestic policy actions by providing the needed political leadership and support to enhance collaboration across the sectors, and establishing global platforms for sharing best practices; and (3) providing political support for the establishment of a multi-year plan to expand and upgrade the statistical foundation necessary to increase the capacity of all countries to identify and implement policies that can contribute to stronger, more inclusive and sustainable growth and development, globally.

2013-04, Cattaneo, O., Gereffi, G., Miroudot, S., Taglioni, D.

In recent years, global value chains have played an increasing role in business strategies, profoundly affecting international trade and development paradigms. Global value chains now represent a major source of socio-upgrading opportunities and a new path for development. Trade, competitiveness and development policies should be reshaped accordingly to seize these opportunities and avoid the risks associated with greater participation in global value chains. This paper provides a framework and analytical tools for measuring and improving a country's performance with respect to participation in global value chains. With a clear operational focus, it provides guidance for countries willing to join, maintain participation, and/or move up global value chains. With the ultimate objective to increase the value (the development content) for trade, it also offers strategies to maximize the benefits and minimize the risks of developing countries' participation in global value chains.

2022-09, Thun, Eric, Taglioni, Daria, Sturgeon, Timothy, Dallas, Mark P.

Digitization is transforming the organization and geography of industries. Once digitized, information can be generated, collected, stored, monitored, analyzed, and processed in ways not previously possible, and when common standards are used as modular interfaces, data can be transferred and put to use with greater ease across organizations and geographic space. An important effect of digitization on industrial organization is the emergence of global-scale modular ecosystems associated with specific classes of products, applications, and technologies. The modules and sub-systems in these ecosystems can—albeit with significant engineering effort, because they are complex—be reused, connected, and layered to drive innovation and deliver products and services with immense complexity at scale. The nuances of this transformation have not been lost on the field of technology management and innovation. The primary focus of this literature has been on how to capture value in modular ecosystems, mainly by focusing on how to companies can influence or leverage industry architectures and “win” in an era of digital platforms. This paper makes three contributions to these literatures, as well as to literatures on global value chains (GVCs), industry standards, and industrial policy in the post- “Washington Consensus” era: 1) it develops a broader view of modular and platform ecosystems than has been advanced so far, highlighting the overlapping and layered nature of digital industry ecosystems; 2) it focuses on the multiplicity of standards that bind modular ecosystems together; and 3) it draws attention to the geographic and geopolitical implications of what it calls Massive Modular Ecosystems (MMEs). The case study of the mobile phone handset industry reveals three paradoxes associated with MMEs: 1) they allow for extremely complex products to be produced at scale, unlike more traditional industries; 2) they simultaneously feature high degrees of market concentration at the level of complex sub-systems and components, and market fragmentation at the level of the industry overall and at the level of complementors; and 3) they are concentrated in geographic clusters, but because MMEs integrate work carried out in many specialized clusters in many countries, the system as a whole is geographically dispersed. This leads to a fourth, policy-related paradox: MMEs generate strategic and geopolitical pressures for decoupling when placed under stress, but the same set of circumstances also creates pressures for maintaining the business relationships and institutions that have come to underpin global integration.

2024-05-20, Bastos, Paulo, Greenspon, Jacob, Stapleton, Katherine, Taglioni, Daria

This paper develops measures of the diffusion of a comprehensive range of low-carbon technologies in 35 countries from 2019 to 2022 using text analysis of job postings and earnings calls transcripts. It documents a rapid acceleration in the diffusion of low-carbon technologies in 2022, driven by technologies related to renewable energy, vehicles, thermal performance, and electrical generation and storage. Rapid growth occurred in three quarters of the countries studied and 228 of 300 subnational regions, although was fastest in Europe. Hiring for roles related to low-carbon technologies in these 35 countries doubled between 2019 and the end of 2022, for example. It studies the role of the global energy crisis in triggering this accelerated technology diffusion, focusing on 16 mainly advanced economies. It finds that establishments in countries that had a higher pre-crisis dependence on imports of natural gas, and were thus more exposed to the price shock, differentially increased hiring for low-carbon technology related roles from March 2022 onwards. Within more exposed countries, establishments with a higher pre-crisis energy intensity also saw a differential increase in hiring relative to less energy intensive ones.

2013-12, Gaulier, Guillaume, Santoni, Gianluca, Taglioni, Daria, Zignago, Soledad

Over the past two decades, international trade has become a privileged engine of growth for much of the developing world. With the global economy evolving continuously and rapidly, countries must pay close attention to their positioning on the map of global trade and production. Within this framework, countries must also become aware of how they fare relative to competitors and to their past export performance. Of particular importance is the extent to which their performance is driven by exporter own supply-side capacity as opposed to external or compositional factors, including product and geographical specialization and how these trends compare across countries. This paper describes a new initiative that uses quarterly data for 2005q1-2013q1 to compute comparable indicators of export performance for 228 countries and territories. The database, the Export Competitiveness Database, reveals interesting patterns in trade performance. Export performance, stripped of compositional effects, was strongest for countries from the Asia and Pacific region, on average. Moreover, such performance was almost entirely driven by exporting country specific factors, with changes reflecting growth in volume rather than price developments. All emerging and developing regions have, on average, improved export performance. The indicators in the database trace the legacy of supply-side capacity and the overall export performance of the double-dip recession in the euro area. An illustrative set of results suggests that the paper's measure of competitiveness correlates to a country's nominal and real effective exchange rate, factors that are commonly perceived as important determinants of competitiveness.

2014, Sáez, Sebastián, Taglioni, Daria, Zavacka, Veronika, Hollweg, Claire H.

The Service Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic (STDC) Toolkit is part of a larger agenda of trade competitiveness work developed by the World Bank’s International Trade Unit in recent years. Services are a key input in countries’ trade competitiveness, as well as a new source of trade diversification, making it critical to understand what factors and main constraints matter most for services competitiveness. The Toolkit provides a framework, guidelines, and set of practical tools to conduct a thorough analysis and diagnostic of trade competitiveness in the services sector with a methodology that sheds light on a country’s ability both to export services and improve its export performance through policy change. This Toolkit is designed to be used in a modular way. Either a full country diagnostic can be undertaken or various parts of the toolkit can be used to address specific questions of interest, whether they pertain to existing services performance, the potential for expansion and growth in services trade, or policy options to increase competitiveness in services trade. The output of an STCD can be used to assess either the overall performance of a country’s services sector or the performance of individual sub-sectors. This Toolkit complements the analytical framework for trade in goods provided by the Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic Toolkit (World Bank, 2012), and allows policymakers and experts in developing countries to better integrate services into their overall trade strategies. In addition, it will also be of interest to international organizations and development practitioners in both policymaking institutions and academia.

2013-03, Reis, José Guilherme, Taglioni, Daria

This paper reviews Pakistan's recent trade performance, its trade policy and trade costs. Different dimensions of trade performance growth and orientation, diversification and sophistication are assessed, complemented by an in-depth analysis of export dynamics in the period 2001-10 using firm-level data. An econometric exercise is also performed to identify the impact of tariffs, exchange rates, fixed costs to export, foreign demand, and preferential trade policy on the ability of firms to increase their exports. The analysis of Pakistan's trade policy includes tariffs, effective protection and trade restrictiveness estimates, as well as an assessment of the role of preferential trade agreements in the context of regional integration. Finally, the main characteristics of trade facilitation and logistics are analyzed, covering the capacity, performance, quality of services and degree of integration of the logistics system.

2014-05, Taglioni, Daria, Winkler, Deborah

Global value chains (GVCs) are playing an increasingly important role in business strategies, which has profoundly changed international trade and development paradigms. GVCs now represent a new path for development by helping developing countries accelerate industrialization and the servicification of the economy. From a firm perspective, production in the context of GVCs highlights the importance of being able to seamlessly connect factories across borders, as well as protect assets such as intellectual property. From the policy maker perspective, the focus is on shifting and improving access to resources while also advancing development goals, and also on the question of whether entry into GVCs delivers labor-market-enhancing outcomes for workers at home, as well as social upgrading. GVCs can lead to development, but, at the country level, constraints such as the supply of various types of labor and skills and inadequate absorptive capacity remain. GVCs can create new opportunities on the labor demand side, but supply and demand cannot meet if the supply is missing. This potential gap illustrates the importance of embedding national GVC policies into a broader portfolio of policies aimed at upgrading skills, physical and regulatory infrastructure, and enhancing social cohesion.