Coulibaly, Souleymane

Central Africa Unit, Africa Region, The World Bank
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Macroeconomic and structural policies, Growth diagnostics, Fiscal policy
Central Africa Unit, Africa Region, The World Bank
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Last updated January 31, 2023
Souleymane Coulibaly, from Cote d'Ivoire, holds a double Ph.D. degree in International Trade and Economic Geography from the University of Paris 1 Pantheon-Sorbonne (France) and the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). His publications and ongoing research deal with the impact of geography on firms’ location, trade flows and regional integration. He was a co-author of 2009 World Development Report "Reshaping Economic Geography", contributed to the 2005 Global Economic Prospect report on regionalism, and recently published the book “Eurasian Cities: New Realities along the Silk Road” in the ECA regional studies series. He is the Program Leader and Lead Economist for Central Africa. He joined the World Bank Africa Region in January 2014 from the Operation and Policy and Quality Unit (OPCS) where he was covering Development Policy Lending and Guarantee policies and operations, and represented the unit in the Non-Concessional Borrowing Policy committee. Before OPCS, he was in the Eastern and Central Asia (ECA) region working simultaneously as trade economist and country economist of some former Soviet countries (Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan), as well as ECA regional trade coordinator. Before joining the World Bank as a Young Professional in September 2006, he used to be lecturer at the Ecole Nationale Superieure de Statistiques et d’Economie Appliquée (ENSEA) of Abidjan, teaching assistant at the University of Lausanne, and economist at the Economic and International Relations department of NESTLE in Vevey, Switzerland.

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
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    Evaluating the Trade Effect of Developing Regional Trade Agreements : A Semi-parametric Approach
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-05) Coulibaly, Souleymane
    Many recent papers have pointed to ambiguous trade effects of developing regional trade agreements (RTAs), calling for a reassessment of their economic merits. The author focuses on seven such agreements currently in force in Sub-Saharan Africa (ECOWAS and SADC), Asia (AFTA and SAPTA) and Latin America (CACM, CAN, and MERCOSUR), estimating their impacts on their members' trade flows. Instead of the usual dummy variables for RTAs, he proposes a variable taking into account the number of years of membership. He then combines a gravity model with kernel estimation techniques to capture the non-monotonic trade effects while imposing minimal structure on the model. The results indicate that except for SAPTA, these RTAs have had a positive impact on their members' intra-trade over the estimation period (1960-99). AFTA seems to be the most successful among them, with an estimated positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but its impact on their exports to the rest of the world is rather limited. During its first 10 years of existence, ECOWAS appears to have had a positive impact on its members' imports from the rest of the world (hence no trade diversion), but this positive impact vanished over time. SAPTA's negative impact on its members' intra-trade is probably an implicit effect of the India-Pakistan tensions over the estimation period.
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    On the Complementarity of Regional and Global Trade
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2009) Coulibaly, Souleymane
    Sourcing intermediate goods efficiently is essential for a country's production capacity. Countries located in a neighborhood providing a wide range of intermediate goods cheaply available can take advantage of scale economies to reduce their production costs and improve their global competitiveness. Many empirical works have documented the sharp increase in intra-industry trade and particularly trade in intermediate goods within developed neighborhoods such as the EU, North America and Northeast Asia. But what about developing neighborhoods? This paper uses COMTRADE aggregate exports of capital goods, intermediate goods, consumer goods and raw materials for 2002-06 to evaluate how a country's import of intermediate goods from its neighbors impacts its global export performance. For Sub-Saharan African countries particularly, there is a strong positive correlation between countries previous regional import of intermediate goods and their current exports, indicating that developing neighborhoods are also experiencing such complementarity between regional and global trade, the relation being stronger beyond a threshold of global competitiveness. These results call for a two-pronged policy action encompassing regional and global integration and putting a sub-set of Sub-Saharan countries close to that global competitiveness threshold at the heart of a neighborhood growth strategy.
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    Differentiated Impact of AGOA and EBA on West African Countries
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-06-14) Coulibaly, Souleymane
    The African Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) and Everything But Arms (EBA), two preferential agreements extended by the United States (AGOA) and the European Union (EU) (EBA) to some developing countries seem to have contributed somewhat to boost Sub-Saharan Africa’s exports since 2001. However, not all African countries have benefited from them, among which West African countries. Paradoxically, these latter countries host two of the most advanced regional economic communities in Sub-Saharan Africa: the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) sharing a common monetary policy that has consistently maintained inflation low and forming a customs union with a compensation mechanism to uphold the common external tariff; and the economic community of West African States (ECOWAS) maintaining a regional military force (ECOMOG) and peer pressure that have rooted out military coups in its member countries. Simulations derived from a Pseudo Poisson maximum likelihood gravity model estimation show that West Africa could be exporting 2.5 to 4 times more to the EU and the US if AGOA and EBA were not implemented in a differentiated manner, in terms of country eligibility, product coverage, and rules of origins. Given such trade creation potential for a group of countries committed to deep regional integration, a revision of AGOA and EBA, or a special ECOWAS and WAEMU provision will make these preferential trade agreements a driving force behind the success of regional integration in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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    Diversified Urbanization: The Case of Côte d'Ivoire
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-08-29) Fall, Madio ; Coulibaly, Souleymane ; Fall, Madio ; Coulibaly, Souleymane
    Côte d’Ivoire seeks a development strategy to reach middle-income status—a challenge that would require annual growth rates averaging 10 percent over the next 13 years. Global experience of both developed and emerging economies shows that GDP per capita rises with increased urbanization. However, Côte d’Ivoire’s economy is underperforming relative to its level of urbanization. The country’s urbanization has been negatively correlated with income per capita since the late 1970s, and poverty has been increasing. Rather than consider development of cities individually, successful urbanization plans in Côte d’Ivoire should consider the country’s cities as a portfolio of assets, each differentiated by characteristics that include size, location, and density of settlements. The authors of Diversified Urbanization: The Case of Côte d’Ivoire identify three types of cities on the basis of their contribution to growth and job creation: Global Connectors, Regional Connectors along major corridors for regional transport and trade, and Domestic Connectors of localization economies for agribusiness. Stakeholders from the national government, local governments, and the private sector have a shared vision for urbanization in the country—cities that are planned, structured, competitive, attractive, inclusive, and organized around development poles. To achieve this vision and the goal of middle-income status, Ivorian policy makers need to act urgently to support diversified urbanization across all city types. This book identifies important constraints and opportunities along four dimensions: planning, connecting, greening, and financing cities.
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    Revisiting the Trade Impact of the African Growth and Opportunity Act: A Synthetic Control Approach
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-08) Kassa, Woubet ; Coulibaly, Souleymane
    This study examines the impact of the African Growth and Opportunity Act using the synthetic control method, a quasi-experimental approach. The novelty in the approach is that it addresses problems of estimation that are prevalent in nonexperimental methods used to analyze the impact of preferential trade agreements. The findings show that most of the eligible countries registered gains in exports due to the African Growth and Opportunity Act. However, the results are varied, and the gains were largely unsteady. Much of the gains are due to exports of petroleum and other minerals, while there are few countries that were able to expand into manufacturing and other industrial goods. The positive trade impacts were largely associated with improvements in information and communications technology infrastructure, integrity in the institutions of legal and property rights, ease of labor market regulations, and sound macroeconomic environment, including stable exchange rates and low inflation. Undue exposure to a single market, like the United States, or few commodities may have also restricted the gains from trade.
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    Africa in the New Trade Environment: Market Access in Troubled Times
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-10) Coulibaly, Souleymane ; Kassa, Woubet ; Zeufack, Albert G. ; Mattoo, Aaditya ; Coulibaly, Souleymane ; Kassa, Woubet ; Zeufack, Albert G.
    Sub-Saharan Africa represents only a small share of global production and trade while hosting half of the extreme poor worldwide. To catch up with the rest of the world, the continent has no alternative: it must undertake reforms to scale up its supply capacity while better linking its production and trade to the global economy. If it does so, it stands to gain from unlimited demand and innovation along the supply chain. Some progress has been made over the past decade, with the region’s exports and imports growing rapidly. Because most African economies rely heavily on trade for a large share of national income, they will also be more vulnerable to the trade disruptions of external shocks, as illustrated by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Africa in the New Trade Environment: Market Access in Troubled Times provides a comprehensive, state-of-the-art analysis by a team of renowned trade economists who present a strategy to bolster Sub-Saharan Africa’s market access in the current global environment.