Person:
Sinha, Rishabh
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Economic Growth,
Structural Transformation,
Productivity
Degrees
ORCID
External Links
Departments
Development Research Group, World Bank
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated
February 1, 2023
Biography
Rishabh Sinha is an Economist with the Macroeconomics and Growth Team of the World Bank’s Development Research Group. His interests lie in understanding the role of allocative efficiency and productivity in delivering economic growth. He has studied this relationship in diverse settings, which include issues involving structural transformation, occupational choice, financial development, intergenerational mobility, and fragile and violent economies.
Publication Search Results
1 - 10 of 11
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Publication
Sectoral Productivity Gaps and Aggregate Productivity
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06)This paper examines the role of changes in sectoral productivity gaps over time in accounting for growth realized by countries over the past few decades. To quantify the productivity impact of the sectoral gaps, a simple model of resource allocation is developed in which the gaps arise due to distortions in the form of asymmetrical taxes across sectors. The paper finds a limited role of changes in distortions over time in accounting for actual growth. Implied growth from changes in distortions accounts for less than 2.5 percent of actual growth for the median country. To check if the lower contribution of changes in distortions is because of unrealized gains suggested by high levels of present distortions, productivity gains are estimated when distortions across countries are reduced to the US levels. Barring a couple of cases, the gains in aggregate productivity are modest across the sample of countries. -
Publication
What Explains Latin America's Low Share of Industrial Employment?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-03)This paper investigates the relative importance of different channels in explaining the low share of industrial employment in Latin America relative to the economies that employ a large share of the workforce in industry. Differences in domestic final consumption shares play a pivotal role and can account for 50-70 percent of the industrial share gap. The paper finds limited support for the comparative advantage hypothesis, as differences in trading patterns account for less than 15 percent of the gap. More important are the differences in sectoral linkages and wage gaps which account for more than 30 percent of the industrial employment gap individually. -
Publication
Investment Under Risks and Uncertainty in Afghanistan
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-05)This paper investigates the state of low investment in Afghanistan by studying how investment decisions interact with risks and uncertainty in the presence of underdeveloped financial markets. The analysis shows that investing firms experience a higher probability of being affected by events related to crime and corruption and spend more on security arrangements. Firms that participate in the formal financial sector are also subject to higher levels of risk and uncertainty. As more productive firms face higher risks and uncertainty, a model of resource allocation with heterogeneous firms is used to quantify the economic loss from crime and corruption. The estimated aggregate output loss of 12 percent is significantly higher than the 7 percent loss observed in the absence of the resource allocation channel. -
Publication
Closer, but No Cigar: Intergenerational Mobility across Caste Groups in India
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-04)This paper compares the intergenerational mobility of educational and occupational attainment of men from disadvantaged groups (Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST)) in India with the intergenerational mobility of men outside these groups during 1983-2009. Although there has been a modest convergence in mobility rates of non-SC/ST and SC/ST men in educational attainment, there has been no significant convergence in the mobility rates of occupational attainment. Upward mobility of SC/ST men remains much lower compared to non-SC/ST men. Additionally, the former are more susceptible than the latter to moving down the intergenerational ladder. The mobility gap varies over a large range across states, but the cross-state variation has declined, with convergence being higher in states with larger gaps initially. The paper finds no evidence of higher convergence in states with higher economic growth. As such, policies that focus on growth may not necessarily deliver convergence in outcomes across social groups. -
Publication
Input Substitutability and Cross-Country Variation in Sectoral Linkages
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-03)Using panel data on input-output intensities and expenditure prices from 28 countries, this paper finds the elasticity of substitution across sectoral inputs to be less than one in each of the three broad sectors of the economy. Intermediates are most complementary in the production of services while it is easiest to substitute across intermediates in the production of agricultural goods. Differences in relative prices alone account for a non-trivial fraction of the cross-country variation in sectoral linkages. Abstracting from the price channel that allows for substitution across inputs in response to changes in relative prices delivers biased aggregate implications of changes in productivity and distortions. -
Publication
Conflict and the Nature of Precautionary Wealth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-05-23)The paper uses a detailed household survey to document precautionary wealth accumulation in Afghanistan, with wealth being significantly higher for households facing higher income uncertainty. Annual household expenditure on nondurable goods is also lower for these households. There is no significant difference in the wealth response to income uncertainty across high- and low-conflict provinces. However, the constituents of precautionary wealth vary drastically. While households in the low-conflict regions rely almost exclusively on livestock to iron out uncertainty, households in the high-conflict areas also build up a reserve of gold and silver. This shift in household portfolio suggests a more substantial decline in real returns of livestock relative to jewelry in high-conflict provinces. -
Publication
Going Viral: COVID-19 and the Accelerated Transformation of Jobs in Latin America and the Caribbean
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-09-28)The economic impact of COVID-19 is unprecedented in size and scope. It has quickly evolved from a health emergency into an employment crisis. It also has far-reaching implications for workers beyond the immediate employment effects, as it most likely has accelerated the transformation process of jobs that had already started in the region and the world. This book focuses on three important pre-pandemic trends observed in the region—namely, premature deindustrialization, servicification of the economy, and task automation—that were significantly changing the labor market landscape in the region and that have been accelerated by the crisis. While there is still uncertainty about the economic impacts of Covid-19, policymakers need to start planning for a rapidly evolving future that will come sooner than expected. A strong focus on productivity, technology development and adoption, and training in relevant skills will be key to adapting and taking advantage of the new opportunities in the post-pandemic world. Importantly, the accelerated transformation of jobs calls for a rethinking of labor regulations and social protection policies geared towards wage earners employed in the formal sector of the economy. The three trends identified in Going Viral, the effects of the pandemic itself, and the growing reliance on electronic platforms raise doubts that wage employment will increase substantially in the coming years. At the same time, earnings and transactions processed through electronic platforms are more visible to the authorities, bringing an opportunity to increase tax revenue and social security contributions. The flexible regulation of the emerging forms of work in a way that encourages employment, supports formalization, and expands the coverage of social protection to larger segments of the population will be of utmost importance for policymakers preparing for a new and changed world. -
Publication
Long-Term Growth Scenarios for Bangladesh
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-01)Bangladesh has achieved robust economic growth over the past 10 years, with real GDP growing by more than 6 percent on average each year. This paper investigates whether the country will be able to maintain such high levels of growth going forward. A simple growth model calibrated to the Bangladesh economy is used to analyze various growth scenarios. The main finding of the paper is that it is crucial for the country to focus on reforms to raise total factor productivity (TFP) growth, to sustain the high real GDP growth seen in the recent past. The country will fail to achieve high growth in absence of strong TFP growth despite meeting the levels of investment as outlined in the Seventh Five Year Plan. The model is also used to gain insights on government debt sustainability given different growth scenarios. The analysis highlights the significance of meeting revenue targets in maintaining sustainability, considering the planned expansion in expenditures. -
Publication
Crop Yield Convergence across Districts in India's Poorest State
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07)Bihar, India's poorest state, witnessed impressive yield growth in each of its three principal crops over 2005-17. This paper examines whether a convergence in district yields accompanied the improvement in yields at the state level, thereby reducing regional inequalities in land productivity. The convergence test allows the idiosyncratic element of productivity to be time-varying, thus allowing yields to diverge in some interim phases. Rice yields across districts appear to be converging to a common level, while maize yields have diverged over the same period. However, the sub-period analysis shows a trend of divergence for both crops going forward. In contrast, wheat yields seem to be converging to a common level recently, although the convergence for the entire period is weak. The analysis also identifies district clubs, which are converging to similar steady states. The club classification transcends agro-climatic boundaries, indicating a need for policy action to aid yield growth in lagging districts. Finally, there is no evidence that the divergence in yields was driven by a divergence in credit allocation, highlighting the limitations of a macro credit-driven policy. Credit supply might not be enough when there are structural snags in the availability of direct agricultural inputs. -
Publication
Central America’s Deindustrialization
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10)The paper assembles and harmonizes sectoral data from several sources to study the industrial trends in six Central American economies. The industrial employment share contracted by 2.5 percentage points on average over the past two decades. This deindustrialization was not trade-driven in which economies substitute domestic production of industrial goods via cheaper imports. Instead, an increase in barriers restricting the efficient flow of labor across sectors drives this decline. Adopting policies that target such barriers can potentially deliver considerable industrial expansion. But the economic impact of this policy is likely to be marginal, with aggregate output increasing by 3 percent or less if barriers are eliminated. At the same time, this approach also carries several risks, and rather than reining in inefficiency might introduce new distortions making the economy more inefficient. Perhaps a more prudent growth strategy will be to concentrate on boosting productivity, which, although challenging, has a direct effect on output.