Trade and Regional Integration
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
INTERNATIONAL TRADE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CARBON ACCOUNTING, TRADE POLICY
Trade and Regional Integration
Externally Hosted Work
Last updated January 31, 2023
Paul Brenton is Lead Economist in the Trade and Regional Integration Unit of the World Bank. He focuses on analytical and operation work on trade and regional integration. He has led the implementation of World Bank lending operations such as the Great Lakes Trade Facilitation Project in DR Congo, Rwanda and Uganda. He co-authored the joint World Bank-WTO report on The Role of Trade in Ending Poverty and has managed a range of policy-oriented volumes including: De-Fragmenting Africa: Deepening Regional Trade Integration in Goods and Services; Africa can Help Feed Africa; and Carbon Footprints and Food Systems: Do Current Accounting Methodologies Disadvantage Developing Countries? Paul joined the World Bank in 2002, having previously been Senior Research Fellow and Head of the Trade Policy Unit at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels. Before that, he lectured in economics at the University of Birmingham in the UK. He has a PhD in Economics from the University of East Anglia. A collection of Paul’s work has been published in the volume International Trade, Distribution and Development: Empirical Studies of Trade Policies (https://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/9172 ).
Publication Search Results
Now showing 1 - 8 of 8
Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-09-29) Brenton, Paul ; Chemutai, VickyWhile trade exacerbates climate change, it is also a central part of the solution because it has the potential to enhance mitigation and adaptation. This timely report explores the different ways in which trade and climate change intersect. Trade contributes to the emissions that cause global warming and is itself also affected by climate change through changing comparative advantages. The report also confronts several myths concerning trade and climate change. The report focuses on the impacts of, and adjustments to, climate change in developing countries and on how future trade opportunities will be affected by both the changing climate and the policy responses to address it. The report discusses how trade can provide the goods and services that drive mitigation and adaptation. It also addresses how climate change creates immense challenges for developing countries, but also new opportunities to promote trade diversification in the transition to a low-carbon world. Suitable trade and environmental policies can offer effective economic incentives to attain both sustainable growth and poverty reduction.
Reshaping Global Value Chains in Light of COVID-19: Implications for Trade and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-03-04) Brenton, Paul ; Ferrantino, Michael J. ; Maliszewska, MarylaGlobal value chains (GVCs) have driven dramatic expansions in trade, productivity, and economic growth in developing countries over the past three decades. Reshaping Global Value Chains in Light of COVID-19: Implications for Trade and Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries examines the economic impact of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic on GVCs and explores whether they can continue to be a driver of trade and development. The book undertakes the following: • Assesses what the impact of previous crises, such as the global financial crisis of 2008–09, can say about of the resilience of GVC firms to shocks • Examines what high-frequency data on trade flows can show about the impact of COVID-19 during the sharp global recession of 2020 • Uses discussions with GVC firms to gain a deeper understanding of the impacts of—and their responses to—the COVID-19 shock • Explores simulations from a global economic model to assess the potential longer-term impacts of COVID-19 on low- and middle-income countries and key factors shaping the global economy, including the evolving role of China, the rise of trade restrictions, and policy responses to global warming • Asks what steps countries and international institutions can take to enhance the resilience of GVCs in low-income countries to future shocks. The analysis shows that well-operating GVCs are a source of resilience more than a source of vulnerability. Moreover, steps to maintain and enhance trade contribute to managing a crisis and recovery, while measures to reshore production make all countries worse off. This economic crisis offers countries an opportunity to reshape the global economy into a greener, more resilient, and inclusive system that is better equipped for a changing world. Trade is a powerful tool for achieving this aim.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04-06) Brenton, Paul ; Chemutai, VickyCountries in Africa should strive to maintain trade flows during the crisis to secure access to medical goods and services, and food and other essential items such as farm inputs. This requires keeping borders open to the largest extent possible and avoiding measures such as export bans or taxes. Countries should take action to reduce taxes and duties on trade, to streamline trade procedures and to support transport and logistics services in maintaining cross-border and international value chains. By joining together, countries in Africa can implement coordinated trade measures that result in better responses to the crisis. Joint actions include bilateral cooperation on border management, joint information campaigns, coordinated purchasing of medical equipment, partnering on repurposing production to produce medical goods, and management of health specialists to deal with emerging hotspots on the continent. Development partners should support coordinated actions by regional institutions through analysis, technical assistance and perhaps operational projects. Identifying the appropriate level (sub-national, national, regional, continental) for interventions and the most effective institutions, in terms of relevance and capacity, to manage coordinated actions will be essential.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-21) Brenton, Paul ; Bundervoet, Tom ; Edjigu, Habtamu ; Masaki, Takaaki ; Sienaert, AlexisThe objective of this Regional Economic Memorandum (REM) is to strengthen the economic analysis available to policymakers on the challenges and opportunities for regional economic integration to support job creation and economic transformation in the Horn of Africa. It assesses the current state of regional economic integration, how policies and investments can deepen this integration, and how this could help to address the opportunities and challenges confronting the region. The analysis applies both an economic geography perspective (based on the 3Ds framework of the 2009 WDR – density, distance, and division) and the lens of the jobs and economic transformation (JET) agenda, whilst taking into account fragility and conflict and the region’s complex and evolving political economy. This overview synthesizes the key findings of the analysis conducted for the HoA REM, full details of which are presented in a series of Background Papers. The overview briefly describes key aspects of the region’s economy and development progress (Section 2). Next, in Section 3, it presents features of the economic geography of the region and some key results from economic modeling and transport connectivity analysis. The findings demonstrate the salience of the JET agenda in the Horn, and this and its implications are discussed in Section 4. Finally, Section 5 concludes by highlighting the main policy messages which emerge from the REM’s regional-level analysis.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05-21) Jensen, Michael Friis ; Sela, Shane ; Brenton, Paul ; Keyser, JohnThe urgency of effective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and the reliance of many low-income countries on imports of medical products, requires new approaches to regulation of these products. The challenge will be particularly acute for the new tests to identify infection, drugs to alleviate symptoms and machines to aid recovery as well as vaccines that are all expected to be developed in the coming months. Increased transparency, information sharing and greater cooperation among agencies responsible for the approval and inspection of medical goods around the world can help officials in low-income countries implement their mandate more effectively while maximizing efficient access to these commodities. Responsible agencies should focus on implementing technical regulations to protect health and safety, including interception of counterfeit and substandard products, and avoid wasting resources and creating delays by maintaining procedural practices that may be better addressed through alternative risk management strategies or seeking to regulate quality issues, which are best left to the market. Where there is a need to rapidly approve, test and inspect new goods or varieties that have not previously been imported, such as new equipment and medicines, the adoption of mutual recognition and/or equivalence can provide effective mechanisms to avoid regulatory delays while maintaining high levels of safety.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-21) Brenton, Paul ; Edjigu, HabtamuThis paper provides a review of existing literature on cross-border trade among the Horn of African countries Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia. It offers analysis on key traded products particularly food crops and livestock, a review on main trade routes and border marketing centers;the operation of cross-border value chains in the borderlands, including the economic impact on border communities and a summary of commonchallenges facing cross-border trade within the region. The review is augmented with analysis of available data on trade between these countriesfrom UN COMETRADE, FEWS NET and FAO.To put cross-border trade in context, the paper starts by reviewing the available information from officially recorded trade data.
Publication(Taylor and Francis, 2021-07-06) Brenton, Paul ; Nyawo, MikeThis paper looks at how changing cereal prices affect child undernutrition in Ethiopia. It derives height for age (stunting) and weight for height (wasting) as indicators of child undernutrition from the two most recent years of the Livings Standards Measurement Survey and utilizes market prices for key cereals, teff, wheat, and maize at the enumeration area across all regions of the country. Using a panel data fixed effects model, the analysis finds that, contrary to previous studies, rising cereal prices are positively associated with improved child stunting rates for children between ages 6 months and 5 years. There is no evidence to suggest that cereal prices have a significantly greater impact on height for age for children that come from households who are net sellers of these crops. Cereal prices do not appear to be associated with wasting, which is a shorter-term negative health outcome.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12) Cui, Can ; Guan, Dabo ; Wang, Daoping ; Chemutai, Vicky ; Brenton, PaulInternational efforts to avoid dangerous climate change have historically focused on reducing energy-related carbon-di-oxide (CO2) emissions from countries with the largest economies, including the EU and U.S., and/or the largest populations, such as, China and India. However, in recent years, emissions have surged among a different, much less-examined group of countries, raising the issue of how to address a next generation of high-emitting economies that need strong growth to reduce relatively high levels of poverty. They are also among the countries most at risk from the adverse impacts of climate change. Compounding the paucity of analyses of these emerging emitters, the long-term effects of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on economic activity and energy systems remain unclear. Here, the authors analyze the trends and drivers of emissions in each of the fifty-nine developing countries whose emissions over 2010-2018 grew faster than the global average (excluding China and India), and then project their emissions under a range of pandemic recovery scenarios. Although future emissions diverge considerably depending on responses to Coronavirus (COVID-19) and subsequent recovery pathways, the authors find that emissions from these countries nonetheless reach a range of 5.1-7.1 Gt CO2 by 2040 in all their scenarios, substantially in excess of emissions from these regions in published scenarios that limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius . The authors results highlight the critical importance of ramping up mitigation efforts in countries that to this point have played a limited role in contributing the stock of atmospheric CO2 while also ensuring the sustained economic growth that will be necessary to eliminate extreme poverty and drive the extensive adaptation to climate change that will be required.