Development Research Group
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Financial Sector, Private Sector Development, Global Economy
Development Research Group
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Last updated July 5, 2023
Ha Minh Nguyen is an Economist in the Macroeconomics and Growth Team of the Development Research Group. He joined the Bank in July 2009 as a Young Economist after earning a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Maryland, College Park. He also holds a M.A. and B.A. in economics from The University of Adelaide, Australia. His research interests include International Finance and Economic Growth. His current research is on the financial crisis and the real exchange rates.
Publication Search Results
Now showing 1 - 8 of 8
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-07) Del Carpio, Ximena ; Nguyen, Ha ; Wang, Liang ChoonUsing survey data from the Indonesian manufacturing industry, this paper investigates the impact of minimum wage on employment and wages offered by Indonesian manufacturing firms from 1993 to 2006. It shows that the estimated effects of minimum wage on employment are positive within a province (i.e., with province fixed effects), but negative within a firm (i.e., with firm fixed effects), indicating the importance of using firm panel data to reduce the endogeneity bias in estimates. It finds significant heterogeneous effects of minimum-wage changes on employment. The employment effects of minimum wages are significant and negative among small firms and less educated workers, but not among large firms and workers with high school education and above. The negative employment impact is more severe for non-production workers than for production workers. The analysis also shows that the minimum wage disproportionally affects women: most of the non-production job losses are experienced by female workers. Lastly, the paper finds that the minimum wage is more correlated with the average wage of small firms than that of large firms, suggesting that minimum wages are more binding in small firms.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-04) Hoang, Trung ; Le, Duong Trung ; Nguyen, Ha ; Vuong, Nguyen Dinh TuanThis paper examines the labor market impacts of a large-scale marine environmental crisis caused by toxic chemical contamination in Vietnam's central coast in 2016. Combining labor force surveys with satellite data on fishing-boat detection, the analysis finds negative and heterogeneous impacts on fishery incomes and employment and uncovers interesting coping patterns. Satellite data suggest that upstream fishers traveled to safe fishing grounds, and thus bore lower income damage. Downstream fishers, instead, endured severe impact and were more likely to substitute fishery hours for working secondary jobs. The paper also finds evidence on an impact recovery to fishing intensity and fishery income, and a positive labor market spillover to freshwater fishery.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-03) Hoang, Trung X. ; Nguyen, HaThis paper examines the impact of U.S. market access on local labor markets in a developing country, Vietnam. The study finds that following the implementation of the Vietnam–United States bilateral trade agreement in December 2001, manufacturing employment increased in provinces that were more exposed to U.S. tariff cuts. In those provinces, employment also increased in many service sectors, reflecting strong spillovers of job gains. The new job opportunities have attracted labor from agriculture, thus reducing agricultural employment. The paper examines three possible channels of job gain spillovers, namely, demand, production, and real estate. Although there is evidence for all three channels, the demand channel is the most important.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-06) Dang, Hai-Anh H. ; Hoang, Trung X. ; Nguyen, HaVery few studies currently exist on the long-term impacts of schooling policies in developing countries. This paper examines the impacts -- half a century later -- of a mass education program conducted by the Democratic Republic of Vietnam in the occupied areas during the First Indochina War. Difference-in-difference estimation results suggest that school-age children who were exposed to the program obtained significantly higher levels of education than their peers who were residing in French-occupied areas. The impacts are statistically significant for school-age girls and not for school-age boys. The analysis finds beneficial spillover and inter-generational impacts of education: affected girls enjoyed higher household living standards, had more educated spouses, and raised more educated children. The paper discusses various robustness checks and extensions that support these findings.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-03) Chuah, Lay Lian ; Loayza, Norman V. ; Nguyen, HaThe reallocation of resources from low- to high-productivity firms can generate large aggregate productivity gains. The paper uses data from the Malaysian manufacturing census to measure the country's hypothetical productivity gains when moving toward the level of within-sector allocative efficiency in the United States to be between 13 and 36 percent. Across three census periods in 2000, 2005, and 2010 (the most recent available), the productivity gaps appear to have somewhat widened. This suggests that the "catching-up" process remains a challenge and a potential opportunity, particularly if total factor productivity is expected to be the dominant source of future economic growth. The simulations, based on different magnitudes of the realization of hypothetical productivity gains, show that Malaysia's gross domestic product growth can potentially increase by 0.4 to 1.3 percentage points per year over five years. The analysis accounts only for resource misallocation within sectors. There may be other, possibly large, resource misallocation across sectors. If so, closing those gaps could boost total factor productivity and gross domestic product growth even further.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11) de Nicola, Francesca ; Nguyen, Ha ; Loayza, NormanThis paper examines within-sector resource misallocation in three Southeast Asian countries -- Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam. The methodology accounts for measurement error in revenues and costs. The firm-level evidence suggests that measurement error is substantial, resulting in an overestimation of misallocation by as much as 30 percent. Nevertheless, resource misallocation across firms within a sector remains large, albeit declining. The findings imply that there are considerable potential gains from efficient reallocation -- above 80 percent for Indonesia and around 20 to 30 percent for Malaysia and Vietnam. Private domestic firms and firms with higher productivity appear to face larger distortions that prevent them from expanding.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10) De Nicola, Francesca ; Kehayova, Vera ; Nguyen, HaOver the past decades, East Asia and Pacific's productivity has been gradually catching up with the frontier (the United States), with China leading the pack. Productivity growth has been driven by sustained within-sector productivity growth. Reallocation of labor to sectors with higher productivity, such as industry and services, also contributed to productivity improvements. Nevertheless, resource misallocation remains. Firm-level evidence from four East Asia and Pacific countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam) suggests that resource misallocation across firms within a sector is large, albeit declining over time. Private domestic firms and firms with higher productivity face larger distortions.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-11) De Nicola, Francesca ; Kessler, Martin ; Nguyen, HaThis paper examines the impacts of U.S.-China trade tensions via the lens of East Asian stock markets. Studying 10 indices of the main East Asian stock markets, it finds that announcements of "trade war" escalation translated into 50 to 60 percent of the total declines in two major Chinese stock markets over the first eight months of 2018. In other words, in the absence of the "trade war" Asian stocks would have experienced half the decline, or they would have registered gains.