Development Research Group
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Financial Sector, Private Sector Development, Global Economy
Development Research Group
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Last updated July 5, 2023
Ha Minh Nguyen is an Economist in the Macroeconomics and Growth Team of the Development Research Group. He joined the Bank in July 2009 as a Young Economist after earning a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Maryland, College Park. He also holds a M.A. and B.A. in economics from The University of Adelaide, Australia. His research interests include International Finance and Economic Growth. His current research is on the financial crisis and the real exchange rates.
Publication Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 32
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06) Calderon, Cesar ; Nguyen, HaThis paper examines whether domestic output growth helps attract capital inflows and, in turn, capital inflows help boost output growth in a set of 38 Sub-Saharan African countries. Using a two-step approach to address reverse causality and omitted variable issues, the paper finds that output growth in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa does not attract capital inflows. However, aid and foreign direct investment inflows enhance growth, while sovereign debt inflows do not. A 1 percent increase in the level of real aid inflows raises growth of real output per capita by 0.022 percentage point. For foreign direct investment inflows, the figure is 0.002 percentage point.
The Great Recession and Job Loss Spillovers: Impact of Tradable Employment Shocks on Supporting Services(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-01) Nguyen, Ha ; Rezaei, Shawheen ; Agarwal, DivyaThis paper explores the spillover effects of job losses via input-output linkages during the Great Recession. Exploiting exogenous variation in tradable employment shocks across U.S. counties, the paper finds that job losses in a county’s tradable sectors cause further job losses in the county’s supporting services. For a given county, a 10 percent exogenous decline in tradable employment reduces supporting industries’ employment by 3.8 percent. In addition, a county’s regional supporting services are relatively less affected by its tradable job losses than its local supporting services are, which reinforces the argument that the spillovers are due to input-output linkages.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06) Ersal-Kiziler, Eylem ; Nguyen, HaThe pattern of debt flows to peripheral European Monetary Union members seems puzzling: they are mostly indirect and channeled through the large countries of the European Monetary Union. This paper examines to what extent the introduction of the euro and the elimination of the intra-area currency risk can explain this puzzle. A three-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework with endogenous portfolio choice and two currencies is developed. In the equilibrium, the core members of the European Monetary Union emerge as the main group of lenders to the peripheral European Monetary Union members. Outside lenders are pushed from the periphery debt markets because of currency risk. The model generates a pattern of debt flows consistent with the data despite the absence of any exogenous frictions or market segmentations.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-03) Nguyen, Ha ; Nguyen, HuongDid unemployment in the Great Recession hurt people's health? The broad answer is no: job losses have statistically insignificant impacts on mortality. The exogenous sources of job losses in a U.S. county is the tradable job losses driven by external demand collapses during the Great Recession. The insignificant relationship holds for males and females, for all age groups, and for almost all categories of mortality. Three important exceptions are Alzheimer's, poisoning, and homicide.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-05) Arezki, Rabah ; Fan, Rachel Yuting ; Nguyen, HaThis paper documents the existence of a "middle-income trap" for the Middle East and North Africa region. It argues that the economic woes of the Middle East and North Africa offer new insights into the debate on the trap which has thus far focused on the East Asia and Pacific region. The results are two-folds. First, non-parametric regressions show that the average rate of economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa has not only been significantly lower than that in the East Asia and Pacific region, but it has also tended to drop at an earlier level of income. Second, econometric results point to Middle East and North Africa having experienced a relatively slow pace of technology adoption in general-purpose technologies. The paper concludes that barriers to the adoption of general-purpose technologies related to the lack of contestability in key sectors could constitute an important channel of transmission for the middle-income trap.
Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-10-19) Arezki, Rabah ; Moreno-Dodson, Blanca ; Yuting Fan, Rachel ; Gansey, Romeo ; Nguyen, Ha ; Cong Nguyen, Minh ; Mottaghi, Lili ; Tsakas, Constantin ; Wood, ChristinaThe MENA Economic Update is a product of the World Bank's Office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa. This presents the short-term, macroeconomic outlook and economic challenges facing countries in the region.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07) Arezki, Rabah ; Djankov, Simeon ; Nguyen, Ha ; Yotzov, IvanThis paper explores the dynamics of media chatter about economic reforms using text analysis from about a billion newspaper articles in 28 languages. The paper shows that the intensity of reform chatter increases during economic downturns. This increase is more significant in democracies. Using instrumental variable techniques, the analysis finds the relationship to be causal. The paper also documents that reform chatter is followed by actual reforms, suggesting that democracies benefit from a "self-correcting" mechanism stemming from changing popular attitudes toward reform.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07) Arezki, Rabah ; Dama, Alou Adesse ; Djankov, Simeon ; Nguyen, HaThis paper explores the spillover of protests across countries using data on nonviolent and spontaneous demonstrations for 200 countries from 2000 to 2020. Using an autoregressive spatial model, the analysis finds strong evidence of "contagious protests," with a catalyzing role of social media. In particular, social media penetration in the source and destination of protests leads to protest spillovers between countries. There is evidence of parallel learning between streets of nations alongside the already documented learning between governments.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10) Geiger, Michael ; Nguyen, Ha ; Nguyen, HoungThis paper examines the pros and cons of gradual versus big-bang approaches toward devaluations. It presents original empirical evidence regarding output, consumption, investment and trade balances associated with gradual and big-bang devaluation episodes. It finds that big-bang devaluations are associated with lower output, investment and consumption, while gradual devaluations are not associated with any contemporaneous drops. Five case studies of gradual devaluations are also conducted.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08) Banuri, Sheheryar ; Nguyen, HaThe quest for status is a powerful motivator, but does it affect inequality? This paper presents a novel lab experiment that was designed and conducted to identify the relationship between inequality, status signaling, debt, and conspicuous consumption. It reports three main findings: First, consumption increases when it is "conspicuous" (i.e. is both observable, and signals ability/status). Second, borrowing increases when consumption is conspicuous. More critically, this increase in loan-taking is driven by those at the bottom of the income distribution. Third, in the presence of conspicuous consumption, access to finance exacerbates inequality. The results point to a vicious cycle of inequality and costly borrowing.