Development Research Group
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Financial Sector, Private Sector Development, Global Economy
Development Research Group
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Last updated July 5, 2023
Ha Minh Nguyen is an Economist in the Macroeconomics and Growth Team of the Development Research Group. He joined the Bank in July 2009 as a Young Economist after earning a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Maryland, College Park. He also holds a M.A. and B.A. in economics from The University of Adelaide, Australia. His research interests include International Finance and Economic Growth. His current research is on the financial crisis and the real exchange rates.
Publication Search Results
Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07) Arezki, Rabah ; Djankov, Simeon ; Nguyen, Ha ; Yotzov, IvanThis paper explores the dynamics of media chatter about economic reforms using text analysis from about a billion newspaper articles in 28 languages. The paper shows that the intensity of reform chatter increases during economic downturns. This increase is more significant in democracies. Using instrumental variable techniques, the analysis finds the relationship to be causal. The paper also documents that reform chatter is followed by actual reforms, suggesting that democracies benefit from a "self-correcting" mechanism stemming from changing popular attitudes toward reform.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07) Arezki, Rabah ; Dama, Alou Adesse ; Djankov, Simeon ; Nguyen, HaThis paper explores the spillover of protests across countries using data on nonviolent and spontaneous demonstrations for 200 countries from 2000 to 2020. Using an autoregressive spatial model, the analysis finds strong evidence of "contagious protests," with a catalyzing role of social media. In particular, social media penetration in the source and destination of protests leads to protest spillovers between countries. There is evidence of parallel learning between streets of nations alongside the already documented learning between governments.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018: A New Economy for Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-10) Arezki, Rabah ; Mottaghi, Lili ; Barone, Andrea ; Fan, Rachel Yuting ; Harb, Amani Abou ; Karasapan, Omer M. ; Matsunaga, Hideki ; Nguyen, Ha ; de Soyres, FrancoisGrowth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to rebound to an average of 2% in 2018, up from an average 1.4% in 2017. The modest rebound in growth is driven mostly by the recent rise in oil prices, which has benefitted the region’s oil exporters while putting pressure on the budgets of oil importers. The rebound also reflects the impact of modest reforms and stabilization efforts undertaken in some countries in the region. The report forecasts that regional growth will continue to improve modestly, to an average of 2.8% by the end of 2020 while there is the ongoing risk that instability in the region could worsen and dampen growth. Despite recovery, the slow pace of growth will not generate enough jobs for the region’s large youth population. New drivers of growth are needed to reach the level of job creation required. The report offers a roadmap for unlocking the enormous potential of the region’s large and well-educated youth population by embracing the new digital economy. Broader and bolder reforms will be needed to achieve this goal, along with critical investments in digital infrastructure. It will require the reorientation of education systems toward science and technology, the creation of modern telecommunications and payments systems, and a private-sector driven economy governed by regulations that encourage rather than stifle innovation.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Update, October 2019: Reaching New Heights - Promoting Fair Competition in the Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-10-09) Arezki, Rabah ; Ait Ali Slimane, Meriem ; Barone, Andrea ; Decker, Klaus ; Detter, Dag ; Fan, Rachel Yuting ; Nguyen, Ha ; Miralles Murciego, Graciela ; Senbet, LemmaPart I of this report discusses the short- and medium-term growth prospects for countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The region is expected to grow at a subdued rate of 0.6 percent in 2019, rising to 2.6 percent in 2020 and 2.9 percent in 2021. The growth forecast for 2019 is revised down by 0.8 percentage points from the April 2019 projection. MENA’s economic outlook is subject to substantial downside risks—most notably, intensified global economic headwinds and rising geopolitical tensions. Part II argues that promoting fair competition is key for MENA countries to complete the transition from an administered to a market economy. Part II first examines current competition policies in MENA countries and to promote fair competition calls for strengthening competition law and enforcement agencies. It also calls for corporatizing state-owned enterprises, promoting the private sector and creating a level-playing field between them. Any moves to reform MENA economies would be aided by professional management of public assets, which could tap into a new source of national wealth.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06) Arezki, Rabah ; Djankov, Simeon ; Nguyen, Ha ; Yotzov, IvanUsing a new data set of 207 national elections across 50 democracies, this paper is the first to systematically examine the effects of oil price shocks on incumbents’ political fortunes in developed oil-importing countries. We find that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents and increase the likelihood of changes in the ideology of the incoming government. These shocks are found to operate through lowering consumption growth.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10) Bruhn, Miriam ; Cho, Caleb ; Marusic, Andreja ; Nguyen, Ha ; Reyes, Jose-Daniel ; Tran, TrangThis paper studies the effects of a reform in Serbia that transferred business registration from regional courts to a centralized agency. Using administrative data, the analysis employs a difference-in-difference strategy that compares new firms before and after the reform across districts based on the level of distrust in regional courts. The results suggest that the reform increased the number of new firms more in regions with higher initial levels of distrust, by up to 34 percent. The reform also increased the survival rates of new firms. These effects are large compared to those of other types of registration reforms, suggesting that courts can pose significant barriers to new firm creation.