Person:
Nguyen, Ha

Development Research Group

Fields of Specialization

Financial Sector, Private Sector Development, Global Economy

ORCID

0000-0003-4549-035X

External Links

Google

Departments

Development Research Group

Last updated: June 3, 2024

Biography

Ha Minh Nguyen is an Economist in the Macroeconomics and Growth Team of the Development Research Group. He joined the Bank in July 2009 as a Young Economist after earning a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Maryland, College Park. He also holds a M.A. and B.A. in economics from The University of Adelaide, Australia. His research interests include International Finance and Economic Growth. His current research is on the financial crisis and the real exchange rates.

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Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 47

Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018: A New Economy for Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-10) Arezki, Rabah; Mottaghi, Lili; Barone, Andrea; Fan, Rachel Yuting; Harb, Amani Abou; Karasapan, Omer M.; Matsunaga, Hideki; Nguyen, Ha; de Soyres, Francois
Growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to rebound to an average of 2% in 2018, up from an average 1.4% in 2017. The modest rebound in growth is driven mostly by the recent rise in oil prices, which has benefitted the region’s oil exporters while putting pressure on the budgets of oil importers. The rebound also reflects the impact of modest reforms and stabilization efforts undertaken in some countries in the region. The report forecasts that regional growth will continue to improve modestly, to an average of 2.8% by the end of 2020 while there is the ongoing risk that instability in the region could worsen and dampen growth. Despite recovery, the slow pace of growth will not generate enough jobs for the region’s large youth population. New drivers of growth are needed to reach the level of job creation required. The report offers a roadmap for unlocking the enormous potential of the region’s large and well-educated youth population by embracing the new digital economy. Broader and bolder reforms will be needed to achieve this goal, along with critical investments in digital infrastructure. It will require the reorientation of education systems toward science and technology, the creation of modern telecommunications and payments systems, and a private-sector driven economy governed by regulations that encourage rather than stifle innovation.
From #Hashtags to Legislation: Engagement and Support for Economic Reforms in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) Arezki, Rabah; Belmejdoub, Oussama; Diab, Bilal; Kalla, Samira; Nguyen, Ha; Saif, Abdulla; Yotzov, Ivan
Ownership of reforms by citizens is often presented as important for success. This paper explores media engagement and support for economic reforms in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries using text analysis techniques on publicly available sources. The results show that while reform efforts have intensified in recent years in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, these efforts tend to focus on stronger rather than weaker policy areas, potentially limiting the growth-enhancing effect of reforms. Social media analysis using Twitter shows that the population's support for reforms has been declining. The analysis of traditional news media points to more engagement by international than by local media. However, sentiment from international media is less positive about economic reforms in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. Sentiment in international media and social media matters, as evidenced by its positive and strong correlation with foreign direct investment inflows into the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.
Calamities, Debt, and Growth in Developing Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-04) Yuting Fan, Rachel; Lederman, Daniel; Nguyen, Ha; Rojas, Claudio J.
Public debt in developing economies rose at a fast clip during 2020–21, at least partly due to the onset of the global Covid-19 pandemic. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman opined in early 2021 that “fighting covid is like fighting a war.” This paper argues that the Covid-19 pandemic shares many traits with natural disasters, except for the global nature of the pandemic shock. This paper empirically examines trends in debt and economic growth around the onset of three types of calamities, namely natural disasters, armed conflicts, and external-debt distress in developing countries. The estimations provide quantitative estimates of differences in growth and debt trends in economies suffering episodes of calamities relative to the trends observed in economies not experiencing calamities. The paper finds that debt and growth evolve quite differently depending on the type of calamity. The evidence indicates that public debt and output growth tend to rise faster after natural disasters than in the counterfactual scenario without disasters, thus illustrating how debt-financed fiscal expansions can help economic reconstruction. The findings are different for episodes of debt distress defined as periods of debt restructuring, however. Economies experiencing debt distress are associated with growth trends that are on average below the growth rates of unaffected economies prior to and after the beginning of an episode of debt restructuring.
Correcting Real Exchange Rate Misalignment : Conceptual and Practical Issues
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04) Eden, Maya; Nguyen, Ha
This paper studies the issue of real exchange rate misalignment and the difficulties in settling international real exchange rate disputes. The authors show theoretically that determining when a country should be sanctioned for real exchange rate "manipulations" is difficult: in some situations a country's real exchange rate targeting can be beneficial to other countries, while in others it is not. Regardless, it is difficult to establish whether a misaligned real exchange rate is intentionally manipulated rather than unintentionally caused by other policies or by various distortions in the economy. The paper continues by illustrating the difficulty in measuring real exchange rate misalignment, and provides a critical assessment of existing methodologies. It concludes by proposing a new method for measuring real exchange rate misalignment based on differences in marginal products between producers of tradable and non-tradable goods.
Corporate Debt and Stock Returns: Evidence from U.S. Firms during the 2020 Oil Crash
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) Arezki, Rabah; Cho, Caleb; Nguyen, Ha; Nguyen, Kate; Pham, Anh
This paper explores the effect of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns of U.S. oil firms using an identification strategy through heteroskedasticity, exploiting the 2020 oil price crash. The results are twofold. First, a decline in oil prices significantly reduces oil firms’ stock returns. On average, a 1 percent decline in oil prices leads to a 0.44 percent decline in stock prices. Second, firm debt appears irrelevant in mediating the effect of oil prices on oil firms’ stock returns. Moreover, the muted role of debt was not likely caused by the liquidity backstop provided by the Federal Reserve.
Global Imbalances : Origins and Prospects
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2013-08-01) Servén, Luis; Nguyen, Ha
This paper surveys the academic and policy debate on the origins of global imbalances, their prospects after the global crisis, and their policy implications. A conventional view of global imbalances considers them to primarily result from macroeconomic policies and cyclical forces that cause demand for goods to outstrip supply in the United States and other rich countries and that have the opposite effect in major emerging markets. An alternative view holds that global imbalances are the result of structural distortions and slow-changing factors that primarily affect assets markets. This paper reviews the analytical underpinnings of these two perspectives and the empirical evidence of their respective merits. The paper then assesses the outlook for global imbalances after the crisis, particularly in terms of policy action to reduce their magnitude. Policy intervention is warranted to the extent that the imbalances are driven by welfare-reducing distortions, but in this case, the primary target of policy intervention should be the distortions rather than the imbalances. Finally, the paper examines various forms of international spillovers that may call for multilateral action to limit global imbalances.
Does the Minimum Wage Affect Employment? Evidence from the Manufacturing Sector in Indonesia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-07) Wang, Liang Choon; Del Carpio, Ximena; Nguyen, Ha
Using survey data from the Indonesian manufacturing industry, this paper investigates the impact of minimum wage on employment and wages offered by Indonesian manufacturing firms from 1993 to 2006. It shows that the estimated effects of minimum wage on employment are positive within a province (i.e., with province fixed effects), but negative within a firm (i.e., with firm fixed effects), indicating the importance of using firm panel data to reduce the endogeneity bias in estimates. It finds significant heterogeneous effects of minimum-wage changes on employment. The employment effects of minimum wages are significant and negative among small firms and less educated workers, but not among large firms and workers with high school education and above. The negative employment impact is more severe for non-production workers than for production workers. The analysis also shows that the minimum wage disproportionally affects women: most of the non-production job losses are experienced by female workers. Lastly, the paper finds that the minimum wage is more correlated with the average wage of small firms than that of large firms, suggesting that minimum wages are more binding in small firms.
The Cross-Country Magnitude and Determinants of Collateral Borrowing
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-03) Qian, Rong; Nguyen, Ha
Using the World Bank Enterprise Survey covering 6,800 firms across 43 developing countries, this paper investigates the prevalence and determinants of collateralized borrowing. It focuses on the following two aspects: (1) whether firms' loans from financial institutions require collateral (the extensive margin) and (2) the collateral value relative to the loan value (the intensive margin). On the first aspect, it finds that collateral borrowing is prevalent. On average, 73 percent of loans from financial institutions require collateral. Firms that are small or sell domestically are significantly less likely to pledge collateral. Shorter loans and loans from non-bank financial institutions are also less often associated with collateral. On the second aspect, it finds that on average the loan value is at least 72 percent of the collateral value. The only robust and significant determinants of the collateral value are the type of assets used for collateral. The analysis also checks whether countries' income and institutions affect collateralized borrowing. It finds that firms in countries with higher income and better institutions and credit information are significantly less likely to pledge collateral. These factors, however, have little impact on collateral values.
Consumption Baskets and Currency Choice in International Borrowing
(2011-11-01) Bengui, Julien; Nguyen, Ha
Most emerging markets do not borrow much internationally in their own currency, although doing that has been argued as an attractive insurance mechanism. This phenomenon, commonly labeled "the original sin", has mostly been interpreted as evidence of the countries' inability to borrow in domestic currency from abroad. This paper provides a novel explanation for that phenomenon: not that countries are unable to borrow abroad in their currency, they might not need to do so. In the model, the small prevalence of external borrowing in domestic currency arises as an equilibrium outcome, despite the absence of exogenous frictions or limits on market participation. The equilibrium outcome is driven by the fact that domestic and foreign lenders have differential consumption baskets. In particular, a large part of domestic lenders' consumption basket is denominated in domestic currency whereas all of foreign lenders' is in dollars. A depreciation of domestic currency, which tends to occur in bad times, is therefore less harmful to domestic savers than to foreign investors. This makes domestic lenders require a lower premium than foreign lenders on domestic currency debt. For plausible calibrations, this consumption basket effect can induce foreign investors to pull out of the domestic currency debt market.
Euro Currency Risk and the Geography of Debt Flows to Peripheral European Monetary Union Members
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06) Ersal-Kiziler, Eylem; Nguyen, Ha
The pattern of debt flows to peripheral European Monetary Union members seems puzzling: they are mostly indirect and channeled through the large countries of the European Monetary Union. This paper examines to what extent the introduction of the euro and the elimination of the intra-area currency risk can explain this puzzle. A three-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework with endogenous portfolio choice and two currencies is developed. In the equilibrium, the core members of the European Monetary Union emerge as the main group of lenders to the peripheral European Monetary Union members. Outside lenders are pushed from the periphery debt markets because of currency risk. The model generates a pattern of debt flows consistent with the data despite the absence of any exogenous frictions or market segmentations.