Nguyen, Ha

Development Research Group
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Financial Sector, Private Sector Development, Global Economy
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Last updated July 5, 2023
Ha Minh Nguyen is an Economist in the Macroeconomics and Growth Team of the Development Research Group. He joined the Bank in July 2009 as a Young Economist after earning a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Maryland, College Park. He also holds a M.A. and B.A. in economics from The University of Adelaide, Australia. His research interests include International Finance and Economic Growth. His current research is on the financial crisis and the real exchange rates.
Citations 37 Scopus

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
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    The Great Recession and Job Loss Spillovers: Impact of Tradable Employment Shocks on Supporting Services
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-01) Nguyen, Ha ; Rezaei, Shawheen ; Agarwal, Divya
    This paper explores the spillover effects of job losses via input-output linkages during the Great Recession. Exploiting exogenous variation in tradable employment shocks across U.S. counties, the paper finds that job losses in a county’s tradable sectors cause further job losses in the county’s supporting services. For a given county, a 10 percent exogenous decline in tradable employment reduces supporting industries’ employment by 3.8 percent. In addition, a county’s regional supporting services are relatively less affected by its tradable job losses than its local supporting services are, which reinforces the argument that the spillovers are due to input-output linkages.
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    Impact of U.S. Market Access on Local Labor Markets in Vietnam
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-03) Hoang, Trung X. ; Nguyen, Ha
    This paper examines the impact of U.S. market access on local labor markets in a developing country, Vietnam. The study finds that following the implementation of the Vietnam–United States bilateral trade agreement in December 2001, manufacturing employment increased in provinces that were more exposed to U.S. tariff cuts. In those provinces, employment also increased in many service sectors, reflecting strong spillovers of job gains. The new job opportunities have attracted labor from agriculture, thus reducing agricultural employment. The paper examines three possible channels of job gain spillovers, namely, demand, production, and real estate. Although there is evidence for all three channels, the demand channel is the most important.
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    Employment Multipliers over the Business Cycle
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-06) Nguyen, Ha ; Soh, Jiaming
    This paper estimates dynamic employment multipliers in a U.S. county during 1998-2015. On average, one exogenous tradable job gain creates 1.1 jobs in the rest of the county economy in the same year, but is offset by losses of 0.23 job one year later and 0.32 job two years later. The multiplier is modest during the 2002-2007 boom and is large during the Great Recession. It is smaller in the initial years of the Recovery but is larger in the latter years. Uncertainty and credit constraints are two possible hindrances to the propagation of job gains during the Recovery.
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    Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Financial Markets since 2014
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-01) Nguyen, Ha ; Nguyen, Huong ; Pham, Anh
    This paper investigates the causal impact of oil price fluctuations on financial markets since January 2014. Following a heteroscedasticity-based event study approach, the paper instruments changes in oil prices by exogenous shocks in oil supply. It finds that oil price declines raise uncertainty and hurt risky assets (U.S. stocks and high-yield corporate bonds) while lifting safe assets (U.S. investment-grade bonds and long-term Treasury bonds). In addition, lower oil prices boost the U.S. dollar and reduce the prices of emerging market equities. Remarkably, the declines in oil prices hurt several sectors that supposedly benefit from lower oil prices, such as basic materials, industrials, and transportation.
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    The Financial Costs of the U.S.-China Trade Tensions: Evidence from East Asian Stock Markets
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-11) De Nicola, Francesca ; Kessler, Martin ; Nguyen, Ha
    This paper examines the impacts of U.S.-China trade tensions via the lens of East Asian stock markets. Studying 10 indices of the main East Asian stock markets, it finds that announcements of "trade war" escalation translated into 50 to 60 percent of the total declines in two major Chinese stock markets over the first eight months of 2018. In other words, in the absence of the "trade war" Asian stocks would have experienced half the decline, or they would have registered gains.
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    Corporate Debt and Stock Returns: Evidence from U.S. Firms during the 2020 Oil Crash
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) Arezki, Rabah ; Cho, Caleb ; Nguyen, Ha ; Nguyen, Kate ; Pham, Anh
    This paper explores the effect of oil price fluctuations on the stock returns of U.S. oil firms using an identification strategy through heteroskedasticity, exploiting the 2020 oil price crash. The results are twofold. First, a decline in oil prices significantly reduces oil firms’ stock returns. On average, a 1 percent decline in oil prices leads to a 0.44 percent decline in stock prices. Second, firm debt appears irrelevant in mediating the effect of oil prices on oil firms’ stock returns. Moreover, the muted role of debt was not likely caused by the liquidity backstop provided by the Federal Reserve.