Person:
Kose, M. Ayhan
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
International macroeconomics,
International finance
Degrees
External Links
Departments
Prospects Group, The World Bank
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated
January 31, 2023
Biography
M. Ayhan Kose is Director of the World Bank Group’s Prospects Group. He previously worked in the Research and Western Hemisphere Departments of the International Monetary Fund. He is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Research Fellow at the Center for Economic Policy Research, a Dean’s Fellow at University of Virginia’s Darden School of Business, and a Research Associate at the Center for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis.
Publication Search Results
1 - 3 of 3
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Publication
Understanding Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-02)Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) have experienced an extraordinary decline in inflation since the early 1970s. After peaking in 1974 at 17.3 percent, inflation in these economies declined to 3.5 percent in 2017. Despite a checkered history of managing inflation among many EMDEs, disinflation occurred across all regions. This paper presents a summary of a recent book, "Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies," that analyzes this remarkable achievement. The findings suggest that many EMDEs enjoy the benefits of stability-oriented and resilient monetary policy frameworks, including central bank transparency and independence. Such policy frameworks need to be complemented by strong macroeconomic and institutional arrangements. Inflation expectations are more weakly anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies. In EMDEs that do not operate inflation targeting frameworks, exchange rate movements tend to have larger and more persistent effects on inflation. -
Publication
Challenges of Fiscal Policy in Emerging and Developing Economies
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06)This paper presents a systematic analysis of the availability and use of fiscal space in emerging and developing economies. These economies built fiscal space in the run-up to the Great Recession of 2008-09, which was then used for stimulus. This reflects a more general trend over the past three decades, where availability of fiscal space has been associated with increasingly countercyclical (or less procyclical) fiscal policy. However, fiscal space has shrunk since the Great Recession and has not returned to pre-crisis levels. Emerging and developing economies face downside risks to growth and prospects of rising financing costs. In the event that these cause a sharp cyclical slowdown, policy makers may need to employ fiscal policy as a possible tool for stimulus. An important prerequisite for fiscal policy to be effective is that these economies have the necessary fiscal space to employ countercyclical policies. Over the medium-term, credible and well-designed institutional arrangements, such as fiscal rules, stabilization funds, and medium-term expenditure frameworks, can help build fiscal space and strengthen policy outcomes. -
Publication
How Does the Sensitivity of Consumption to Income Vary Over Time?: International Evidence
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-04)This paper studies how the sensitivity of consumption to income has changed over time as the degree of financial integration has risen. In standard theory, greater financial integration facilitates international borrowing and lending, helping to reduce the sensitivity of consumption growth to fluctuations in income. The paper examines the empirical validity of this prediction using an array of indicators of financial integration for a large sample of advanced and developing countries over the period 1960-2011. Two main results are reported. First, the sensitivity of consumption to income has declined over time as the degree of financial integration has risen. The decline has been more pronounced in advanced economies than in developing ones. Second, the regression analysis indicates that a higher degree of financial integration is associated with a lower sensitivity of consumption to income. This finding is robust to the use of a wide range of empirical specifications, country-specific characteristics, and other controls, such as interest rates and outcome-based measures of financial integration. The paper also discusses other potential sources of the temporal changes in the sensitivity of consumption to income.