Hollweg, Claire H.
Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment Global Practice
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
International trade, Global value chains, Services, Labor markets, Development economics
Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment Global Practice
Externally Hosted Work
Last updated January 31, 2023
Claire H. Hollweg is a senior economist with the Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment Global Practice of the World Bank. Before studying economics, she worked as a journalist. She has worked with the government of South Australia and the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council in Singapore. Her research interests include development economics, with a focus on the nexus between trade, labor markets, servicification of manufacturing, and upgrading in global value chains. She holds a PhD and an MA in economics from the University of Adelaide.
Publication Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 12
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-04) Cali, Massimiliano ; Hollweg, Claire H.Like many emerging economies, South Africa has identified exports as an engine for more inclusive, job-intensive growth. However, employment growth did not follow the substantial export growth that South Africa experienced in the 2000s. This paper uses a newly developed World Bank database -- the Labor Content of Exports -- to show that the composition of South Africa's export growth helps to understand the weak relationship between export and employment growth. Minerals exports, which propelled export as well as wage growth, are not job intensive and as a result supported far less job growth. Minerals have also increasingly become an enclave sector with few backward linkages to the domestic economy. In contrast, manufacturing exports support jobs and wages primarily in input-providing sectors, where indirect manufacturing employment is nearly 4.5 times greater than direct manufacturing employment. The paper also documents a shift in the labor content of global value chain–intensive manufacturing sectors away from direct manufacturing to indirect services. Such a shift has been biased toward skilled labor. As a results of these trends, labor in services sectors has been the main beneficiary of South Africa's export growth, absorbing more than half of the growth in wage income from exports over the 2000s, primarily by supplying inputs to other sectors' exports.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-11) Hollweg, Claire H. ; Rocha, NadiaThe production of export goods has become increasingly unbundled, and countries positioning to become more integrated in the global economy are increasingly looking toward global value chains. This paper uses the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/World Trade Organization's Trade in Value Added Database to assess Brazil's current integration in global value chains. It uses a structural gravity model estimated with parts and components to analyze the scope for Brazil to increase global value chain–related trade. One avenue to raise participation in global value chains is through (deeper) preferential trade agreements, and to this end the paper characterizes the level of integration of Brazil's current preferential trade agreements. Brazil has witnessed high growth in total domestic value added embodied in gross exports since 1995, yet it exhibits lower international engagement in global value chains, but tends to be stronger as a seller than a buyer. Most of the participation on the selling side comes from indirect linkages with domestic input sectors, and services sectors have been important for growing the indirect value added in global value chain–oriented exports. A deep integration agenda focusing not only on border measures, but also on beyond-the-border measures, would help Brazil to maximize the benefits from participation in global value chains. Other than its natural partners, Brazil should integrate with countries where global value chains are taking place. New agreements signed by Brazil and Mercosur with other regional members such as the Pacific Alliance should also take into consideration provisions such as investment, competition policy, and intellectual property rights, which are demonstrated to be very important for integration in global value chains.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02) Ruppert Bulmer, Elizabeth ; Hollweg, Claire H.As countries become increasingly integrated into the global economy, increased trade links with other countries translate into increased access to better or cheaper imports and increased demand for exports. Both can have an impact on consumers, producers and workers through household consumption, household production, and labor incentives. The channels through which increased trade integration can affect labor include: (i) the consumption channel, typically leading to an increase in purchasing power and therefore higher real wages, and (ii) the employment effect due to increased labor demand. The extent of these gains to trade will depend on the incidence of trade policies or trade shocks; in other words, the impact will depend on which products become less expensive, which sectors increase demand for skilled or unskilled labor, and which workers can access these new jobs. This report utilizes a range of methodologies and datasets that implicitly link trade and jobs; by using these complementary analytical approaches, we generate multiple perspectives on Lao PDR’s recent labor market outcomes, and their implications for Lao PDR’s current and future trade competitiveness.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-07-16) Farole, Thomas ; Hollweg, Claire ; Winkler, DeborahThe paper is structured in six further sections following this introduction. Section two develops a conceptual framework, and reviews the literature on the relationship between trade integration and labor market outcomes. Section three outlines the empirical framework and data used in the analysis. Section four presents results on the relationship between overall trade integration (through exports) and labor market outcomes. Section five then focuses specifically on GVC trade, and assesses the relationship between labor market outcomes and GVC integration as a buyer and as a seller. Section six tests if select policy indicators mediate these relationships between trade integration and labor market outcomes. Finally, section seven concludes, with a summary of results and areas for future research.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10) Hollweg, Claire H. ; Ong Lopez, AnneUsing firm-level data for Georgia, the paper estimates the quasi-elasticity of employment and wages with respect to the share of exports in total sales, to explore whether changes in the structure of sales (exporting versus selling to the domestic market) matter for labor market outcomes. The methodology uses exogenous fluctuations in exchange rates combined with firms' initial exposure to various markets as instrumental variables to identify a causal effect. The results differentiate employment levels and average wages by gender and consider whether export destination or the competiveness of economies matters for the magnitude of this elasticity. The data are from the National Statistics Office of Georgia Statistics Survey of Enterprises merged with customs data for 2006-17. The instrumental variables regression results show that the act of exporting improves female employment but reduces overall average wages and female wages. Increasing exports to the European Union as well as high-income countries drives this positive result for female employment, whereas exporting to upper-middle-income countries is found to have a negative relationship with female employment.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06) Cali, Massimiliano ; Hollweg, Claire H. ; Ruppert Bulmer, ElizabethIncreasing the trade integration of developing countries can make a vital contribution to boosting shared prosperity, but it also exposes producers and consumers to exogenous shocks that alter relative prices, sometimes positively and sometimes negatively. This paper discusses the short-run effects of trade-related shocks on households to capture the potential welfare impact on the poor. The discussion explores the channels through which trade shocks are transmitted to households in the bottom of the income distribution, namely through consumption, household production, and market-based labor activities. The degree to which price shocks are passed through from borders to point of sale is a key determinant of the gains from trade and the ultimate welfare impact. Trade changes in agriculture directly affect households through their consumption basket. Lower agricultural prices reduce the cost of consumables, but these welfare gains may be offset by lower earnings for households that produce these same goods. Poorer households tend to be net consumers of agricultural products, suggesting a net welfare gain, but agricultural wage workers could suffer from wage cuts. Because poorer households tend to consume relatively fewer nonagricultural products, that is nonessentials, any trade-related shocks to prices of nonagricultural product are likely to be transmitted via labor channels. Despite significant evidence that nonagricultural trade reform ultimately leads to job creation and enhanced productivity, the short-run effects can be mixed. The costs incurred by workers to transition to new jobs slow the adjustment of the economy to a new steady state. Labor mobility costs, which tend to be higher in developing countries and for unskilled workers, reduce the potential gains to trade by diverting labor market adjustment from its most efficient path.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05) Cusolito, Ana Paula ; Hollweg, Claire H.Despite trade liberalization efforts made by Eurasian countries, the export structure of the region shows significant levels of concentration across export destinations. To shed light on this observation, this research analyzes trade policy barriers in Eurasia, East Asia and the Pacific, and the European Union. Using the most recent data from sources including the World Trade Organization, the United Nations, and the World Bank including the Overall Trade Restrictiveness Indices, the Services Trade Restrictions Database, and the Temporary Trade Barriers Database the role of tariffs, non-tariff measures, temporary trade barriers, trade agreements, and trade barriers in services are explored to explain the lack of diversification by destination. Several conclusions can be drawn from the analysis. First, China, Korea, and Japan, as well as the European Union, impose high levels of protection on products of animal origin, which may explain the lack of Eurasian export diversification toward the East Asia and the Pacific and the European Union regions. It also highlights the potential benefits of diversifying the structure of production in Eurasia toward more sophisticated and technologically intensive goods. Second, the East Asia and the Pacific region (especially China) appears to be more protectionist than the European Union, suggesting a greater challenge for Eurasian countries in diversifying exports to the destination. And third, few or no regional trade agreements exist between Eurasian countries and countries in the European Union or East Asia and the Pacific.
From Evidence to Policy Supporting Nepal’s Trade Integration Strategy: Diversifying Nepal’s Economy through a Dynamic Services Sector(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06) Hollweg, Claire H.This note looks at the services sector and its dual role for Nepal: as a direct source of exports, and as a provider of key inputs for other sectors of the economy. It identifies sources of potential for services exports, and key obstacles for improved efficiency in the sector. It also provides some policy recommendations to alleviate the observed obstacles, and presents examples of good practices from across the world in terms of services trade performance and reforms. Three of the 12 sectors identified in Nepal’s National Trade Integration Strategy 2015 (NTIS 2015) are services-related. This note assesses Nepal’s trade potential in services, and identifies actionable policy measures that are needed for Nepal to achieve this potential. The framework used to assess Nepal’s trade potential in services starts from the idea that services play a dual role for building export competitiveness in the Nepalese economy. The remainder of this note proceeds as follows. Section I analyzes the direct services export performance of Nepal’s exports relative to comparator countries, when measuring exports in gross or value added terms. It takes a detailed look at performance of Nepal’s priority export potential services sectors. Section II analyzes the indirect services export performance, when services are used as inputs for other sectors’ exports. It takes a perspective of services for cross-cutting export competitiveness. This analysis is undertaken in value-added terms. Section III details the policy implications that arise from this analysis, taking both a cross-cutting and sector-specific point of view.
Publication(Alex Publishers, 2017) Sanghi, Apurva ; Burns, Andrew ; Djiofack, Calvin ; Prihardini, Dinar ; Dissanayake, Jagath ; Hollweg, ClaireThis report assesses the future impact of two dynamically transforming economies – China and India – on Russia’s economy. China is slowing down and rebalancing its economy whereas India is rapidly expanding. What does this hold for Russia? The report begins with a snapshot of findings, followed by eight chapters. Chapter one motivates the topic and identifies analytical and empirical gaps that this report fills. Chapter two examines the current pattern of trade between Russia and the two countries, and it discusses how important – or not – China and India’s economies are for Russia. Chapter three follows by summarizing the results of three complementary approaches for measuring Russia’s trade potential with China and India (and also the rest of the world). Chapter fourth intuitively describes the customized methodology developed for this report; its major caveats and assumptions, and its possible extensions (technical details, for those interested, are in the annexes). Chapter fifth outlines four plausible scenarios of the potential impact on Russia of changes in China and India, and chapter sixth presents the results. Chapter seventh explores the sensitivity of results to changes key in assumptions. Finally, chapter eighth concludes with emerging policy implications for Russia.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-01) Calì, Massimiliano ; Hollweg, ClaireThe LACEX dataset has been recently assembled to compute the (direct and indirect) value of the compensation of employees linked to exports for each sector/country/year. The data has been computed on the basis of a panel of global input-output data spanning intermittent years from 1995 to 2007 from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). This represents a form of social accounting data - a variation on the social accounting matrix (SAM) where incomes are shown in the rows of the SAM while expenditures are shown in the columns. The structure of the data provides a comprehensive and consistent record of national income accounting relationships between different sectors and regions, including intermediate and final demand linkages. This structure of the dataset allows one to obtain the value added content of final output and exports, including its compensation of employees’ component. That includes both the direct and indirect compensation, based on the backward linkages of each sector with the rest of the economy. In order to obtain these labor value added measures, two intermediate multiplier matrixes need to be calculated. The first is the Leontief inverse matrix, which measures the inputs contained in a unit of final output. This matrix contains both direct and indirect inputs. Next, one needs to calculate a matrix which has the compensation of employees’ shares of total output. Using these two matrixes as multipliers one can obtain the compensation of employees’ shares of exports and final outputs. These shares are also split between skilled and unskilled workers.