Hollweg, Claire H.

Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment Global Practice
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International trade, Global value chains, Services, Labor markets, Development economics
Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment Global Practice
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Last updated: January 31, 2023
Claire H. Hollweg is a senior economist with the Macroeconomics, Trade, and Investment Global Practice of the World Bank. Before studying economics, she worked as a journalist. She has worked with the government of South Australia and the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council in Singapore. Her research interests include development economics, with a focus on the nexus between trade, labor markets, servicification of manufacturing, and upgrading in global value chains. She holds a PhD and an MA in economics from the University of Adelaide.

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 22
  • Publication
    The Labor Content of Exports Database
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-03) Cali, Massimiliano; Francois, Joseph; Hollweg, Claire H.; Manchin, Miriam; Oberdabernig, Doris Anita; Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo; Rubinova, Stela; Tomberger, Patrick
    This paper develops a novel methodology to measure the quantity of jobs and value of wages embodied in exports for a large number of countries and sectors for intermittent years between 1995 and 2011. The resulting Labor Content of Exports database allows the examination of the direct contribution of labor to exports as well as the indirect contribution via other sectors of the economy for skilled and unskilled labor. The analysis of the new data sets documents several new findings. First, the global share of labor value added in exports has been declining globally since 1995, but it has increased in low-income countries. Second, in line with the standard Hecksher-Ohlin trade model, the composition of labor directly contained in exports is skewed toward skilled labor in high-income countries relative to developing countries. However, that is not the case for the indirect labor content of exports. Third, manufacturing exports are a key source of labor demand in other sectors, especially in middle- and low-income countries. And the majority of the indirect demand for labor spurred by exports is in services sectors, whose workers are the largest beneficiaries of exporting activities globally. Fourth, differences in the labor value added in exports share across developing countries appears to be driven more by differences in the composition of exports rather than in sector labor intensities. Finally, average wages typically increase rapidly enough with the process of economic development to more than compensate the loss in jobs per unit of exports. The paper also includes the necessary information to build the Labor Content of Exports database from the original raw data, including stata do-files and matlab files, as well as descriptions of the variables in the data set.
  • Publication
    Services for Trade Competitiveness: Country and Regional Assessments of Services Trade
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-06-04) Hollweg, Claire H.; Sáez, Sebastián
    Recognizing that services affect the ability of countries and their firms to compete on international markets, the World Bank’s Trade and Regional Integration Unit has developed an extensive work program to promote the performance of countries’ domestic services sectors, including services trade. Services for Trade Competitiveness presents selected applications of new methodologies that were developed to assess the competitiveness of countries’ services sectors, discern the types of barriers to services that exist in the regulatory environment, and identify the resulting policy implications. Its assessments are designed for a wide audience, including policy makers in developing countries and development practitioners in international organizations, policy-making institutions, and academia. The purpose of this book is to help developing countries make informed policy choices to increase their chances of benefiting from the increasing prominence of services in international trade.
  • Publication
    Vietnam at a Crossroads: Engaging in the Next Generation of Global Value Chains
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-03-07) Hollweg, Claire H.; Taglioni, Daria
    Vietnam is at a crossroads. It can grow as an export platform for GVCs, specializing in low value-added assembly functions with industrialization occurring in enclaves with little connection to the broader economy or society; or it can leverage the current wave of growth, enabled and accelerated by its successful participation in GVCs, to diversify and move up the chain into higher value-added functions. Success will require Vietnam’s policymakers to view the processes of development differently, and to take new realities of the global economy more fully into account. The purpose of this volume is to support Vietnam’s path to economic prosperity by identifying policies and targeted interventions that will drive development through leveraging GVC participation that take major shifts in trade policy and rapid technological advances in ICT into account. The volume is based on a compilation of studies completed by World Bank staff and external consultants in 2015 supporting the “Enabling Economic Modernization and Private Sector Development” chapter of the Vietnam 2035 report. The objective of these studies was to diagnose Vietnam’s current participation in GVCs, visualize where Vietnam could be by 2035 in the context of a changing global environment, and identify the policy actions needed to get there. The studies also supported topics related more broadly to export competitiveness, including firm-level productivity, services, and connectivity. It then identifies targeted strategies and policy interventions that will help overcome challenges, minimize risks, and maximize opportunities. Readers will gain a strong understanding of Vietnam’s current and potential engagement with GVCs—and will learn about strategic GVC policy tools that can help developing countries achieve economic prosperity in the context of compressed development.
  • Publication
    Firm Compliance and Public Disclosure in Vietnam
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-09) Hollweg, Claire H.
    Global consumers, international brands, and governments in producing and outsourcing countries aim to improve working conditions in global value chains, but uncertainty exists about what is the best approach. This research uses firm-level data from the International Labour Organization–International Finance Corporation Better Work Vietnam program to assess the relationship between transparency on working conditions and firm compliance in the apparel sector in Vietnam between 2010 and 2018. It exploits a change in the policies of Better Work Vietnam when, in 2015, the program announced the launch of a new public disclosure program that would see factories' names made publicly available along with their compliance (or lack thereof) with certain "critical issues." The paper first examines which firm characteristics correlate with reductions in noncompliance rates over time, and then examines the impact of the public disclosure policy on compliance rates and firm dropout using different empirical techniques. It finds that while continued participation in the Better Work Vietnam program has the strongest effect on changes in firm compliance with labor standards over time, public disclosure is also associated with increased compliance, with stronger effects in some compliance points, including occupational health and safety, work time, and child labor. There is some evidence of increased dropout, but no evidence of firms only making progress on the critical issues is found. The research findings suggest that public disclosure within global value chains matters for firm behavior.
  • Publication
    From Evidence to Policy Supporting Nepal’s Trade Integration Strategy: Diversifying Nepal’s Economy through a Dynamic Services Sector
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06) Hollweg, Claire H.
    This note looks at the services sector and its dual role for Nepal: as a direct source of exports, and as a provider of key inputs for other sectors of the economy. It identifies sources of potential for services exports, and key obstacles for improved efficiency in the sector. It also provides some policy recommendations to alleviate the observed obstacles, and presents examples of good practices from across the world in terms of services trade performance and reforms. Three of the 12 sectors identified in Nepal’s National Trade Integration Strategy 2015 (NTIS 2015) are services-related. This note assesses Nepal’s trade potential in services, and identifies actionable policy measures that are needed for Nepal to achieve this potential. The framework used to assess Nepal’s trade potential in services starts from the idea that services play a dual role for building export competitiveness in the Nepalese economy. The remainder of this note proceeds as follows. Section I analyzes the direct services export performance of Nepal’s exports relative to comparator countries, when measuring exports in gross or value added terms. It takes a detailed look at performance of Nepal’s priority export potential services sectors. Section II analyzes the indirect services export performance, when services are used as inputs for other sectors’ exports. It takes a perspective of services for cross-cutting export competitiveness. This analysis is undertaken in value-added terms. Section III details the policy implications that arise from this analysis, taking both a cross-cutting and sector-specific point of view.
  • Publication
    The Labor Impact of Lao Export Growth
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02) Ruppert Bulmer, Elizabeth; Hollweg, Claire H.
    As countries become increasingly integrated into the global economy, increased trade links with other countries translate into increased access to better or cheaper imports and increased demand for exports. Both can have an impact on consumers, producers and workers through household consumption, household production, and labor incentives. The channels through which increased trade integration can affect labor include: (i) the consumption channel, typically leading to an increase in purchasing power and therefore higher real wages, and (ii) the employment effect due to increased labor demand. The extent of these gains to trade will depend on the incidence of trade policies or trade shocks; in other words, the impact will depend on which products become less expensive, which sectors increase demand for skilled or unskilled labor, and which workers can access these new jobs. This report utilizes a range of methodologies and datasets that implicitly link trade and jobs; by using these complementary analytical approaches, we generate multiple perspectives on Lao PDR’s recent labor market outcomes, and their implications for Lao PDR’s current and future trade competitiveness.
  • Publication
    What is Behind Labor Mobility Costs? Evidence from Indonesia
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-09) Cali, Massimiliano; Hidayat, Taufik; Hollweg, Claire H.
    The ability of workers to transition to a new job is crucial to determine the resilience of an economy to (positive or negative) shocks. This paper provides new evidence on the factors that affect labor mobility by using labor data on Indonesia, one of countries with the higher estimated labor mobility costs. To do so it investigates correlates of the probability of an individual finding a job after a negative labor market shock, as well as of the duration of job search. The results show that higher housing prices are associated with higher mobility costs, suggesting that housing benefits or policies that increase the supply of housing may help reduce mobility costs in Indonesia. More generally, public expenditure on infrastructure seems to reduce labor mobility costs, particularly in urban areas, consistently with a reduction in transaction costs – such as urban transport. The results also highlight that formal institutional mechanisms such as job advertisements do not appear to work effectively to help labor mobility in Indonesia, suggesting the need to re-think active labor market policies. On the other hand, minimum wage level – a key outcome of labor market policy - does not appear to affect labor mobility. Labor mobility costs seem higher in urban areas, which could indicate a lower opportunity cost of joblessness than in rural area, employment composition skewed towards sectors with higher mobility costs and/or large congestion costs that negatively affect labor mobility. On the other hand, the general female penalty in labor mobility is less accentuated in urban areas, which may be the result of sectoral composition and/or less discriminatory cultural norms than in rural areas.
  • Publication
    How Does Participation in Value Chains Matter to African Farmers?
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-07) Dihel, Nora; Goswami, Arti Grover; Hollweg, Claire H.; Slany, Anja
    Trade and participation in global value chains can play a key role in economic diversification and development. This paper deepens the discussion about productivity growth and upgrading in agriculture in Africa, and the role of national, regional, and international value chains in supporting such structural change. The analysis in this report is based on quantitative and qualitative surveys undertaken in 2016 in Ghana, Kenya, and Zambia, where 3,935 farmers, 60 aggregators, and 56 buyers in the maize, cassava, and sorghum value chains were interviewed in the three countries. The descriptive results show that farmers who were on a contract saw greater structural transformation; higher output; and better access to seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, technology, and extension services compared with farmers who were not on a contract. To identify more robustly the link between value chain participation and contract farming with productivity and upgrading, the paper looks at the relationship using a variety of empirical methodologies, ranging from ordinary least squares and probit regressions to propensity score matching. Based on the empirical evidence, the hypothesis that value chain participation leads to structural transformation cannot be confirmed. The paper does find evidence that formal or informal contractual arrangements that regulate the provision of inputs to production, such as fertilizer, technology, extension services, and market information, positively affect upgrading. It remains nevertheless important to understand the impact of government policies on the emergence of value chains given that value chains support contractual arrangements.
  • Publication
    GVC Participation and Deep Integration in Brazil
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-11) Rocha, Nadia; Hollweg, Claire H.
    The production of export goods has become increasingly unbundled, and countries positioning to become more integrated in the global economy are increasingly looking toward global value chains. This paper uses the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/World Trade Organization's Trade in Value Added Database to assess Brazil's current integration in global value chains. It uses a structural gravity model estimated with parts and components to analyze the scope for Brazil to increase global value chain–related trade. One avenue to raise participation in global value chains is through (deeper) preferential trade agreements, and to this end the paper characterizes the level of integration of Brazil's current preferential trade agreements. Brazil has witnessed high growth in total domestic value added embodied in gross exports since 1995, yet it exhibits lower international engagement in global value chains, but tends to be stronger as a seller than a buyer. Most of the participation on the selling side comes from indirect linkages with domestic input sectors, and services sectors have been important for growing the indirect value added in global value chain–oriented exports. A deep integration agenda focusing not only on border measures, but also on beyond-the-border measures, would help Brazil to maximize the benefits from participation in global value chains. Other than its natural partners, Brazil should integrate with countries where global value chains are taking place. New agreements signed by Brazil and Mercosur with other regional members such as the Pacific Alliance should also take into consideration provisions such as investment, competition policy, and intellectual property rights, which are demonstrated to be very important for integration in global value chains.
  • Publication
    Structural Reforms and Labor Market Outcomes : International Panel Data Evidence
    (World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-11) Hollweg, Claire H.; Lederman, Daniel
    This paper explores the impact of structural reforms on a comprehensive set of macro-level labor-market outcomes, including the unemployment rate, the average wage index, and overall and female employment levels and labor force participation rates. Together these outcome variables capture the overall health of the labor market and the aggregate welfare of workers. Yet, there seems to be no other comprehensive empirical investigation in the existing literature of the impact of structural reforms at the cross-country macro level on labor-market outcomes other than the unemployment rate. Data were collected from a variety of sources, including the World Bank World Development Indicators, the International Monetary Fund International Financial Statistics, and the International Labor Organization Key Indicators of the Labor Market. The resulting dataset covers up to 88 countries, the majority being developing, for 10 years on either side of structural reforms that took place between 1960 and 2001. After documenting the average trends across countries in the labor-market outcomes up to 10 years on either side of each country s structural reform year, the authors run fixed-effects ordinary least squares as well as instrumental variables regressions to account for the likely endogeneity of structural reforms to labor-market outcomes. Overall the results suggest that structural reforms lead to positive outcomes for labor. Unlike related literature, the paper does not find conclusive evidence on unemployment. Redistributive effects in favor of workers, along the lines of the Stolper-Samuelson effect, may be at work.