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Dabalen, Andrew

Chief Economist, Africa, World Bank
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Poverty, Inequality, Economics of education, Development economics, Labor economics
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Chief Economist, Africa, World Bank
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Last updated: January 10, 2025
Biography
Andrew Dabalen is the World Bank’s Africa Region Chief Economist since July 1, 2022. The Chief Economist is responsible for providing guidance on strategic priorities and the technical quality of economic analysis in the region, as well as for developing major regional economic studies, among other roles. He has held various positions including Senior Economist in the World Bank’s Europe and Central Asia Region, Lead Economist and Practice Manager for Poverty and Equity in Africa and most recently, Practice Manager for Poverty and Equity in the South Asia Region. His research and scholarly publications focused on poverty and social impact analysis, inequality of opportunity, program evaluation, risk and vulnerability, labor markets, and conflict and welfare outcomes. He has co-authored regional reports on equality of opportunity for children in Africa, vulnerability and resilience in the Sahel, and poverty in a rising Africa. He holds a master’s degree in International Development from University of California - Davis, and a PhD in Agricultural and Resource Economics from University of California - Berkeley.
Citations 63 Scopus

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 14
  • Publication
    Mining in Africa: Are Local Communities Better Off?
    (Washington, DC: World Bank and Agence Francaise de developpement, 2017-02-21) Chuhan-Pole, Punam; Dabalen, Andrew L.; Land, Bryan Christopher; Lewin, Michael; Sanoh, Aly; Smith, Gregory; Tolonen, Anja
    This study focuses on the local and regional impact of large-scale gold mining in Africa in the context of a mineral boom in the region since 2000. It contributes to filling a gap in the literature on the welfare effects of mineral resources, which, until now, has concentrated more on the national or macroeconomic impacts. Economists have long been intrigued by the paradox that a rich endowment of natural resources may retard economic performance, particularly in the case of mineral-exporting developing countries. Studies of this phenomenon, known as the “resource curse,” examine the economy-wide consequences of mineral exports. Africa’s resource boom has lifted growth, but has been less successful in improving people’s welfare. Yet much of the focus in academic and policy circles has been on appropriate management of the macro-fiscal and governance risks that have historically undermined development outcomes. This study focuses instead on the fortune of local communities where resources are located. It aims to better inform public policy and corporate behavior on the welfare of communities in Africa in which the extraction of resources takes place.
  • Publication
    The Changing Landscape of Africa’s Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-10) Calderon, Cesar; Dabalen, Andrew; Qu, Ayan
    This paper examines the main features of real growth per capita of Sub-Saharan Africa over the past six decades, before uncovering the sources of growth—including those of growth miracles. Three distinct growth phases before the recent “lost decade” are observed. The swinging pattern of income per capita shows that the region has not converged with most benchmarks and is not resilient to shocks, although resilience has improved since the beginning of the twenty-first century. Furthermore, growth across countries in the region is heterogeneous and falls into three broad groups. Analysis of the sources of growth suggests that the region underperforms on duration during episodes of expansions/recessions, and the contribution of total factor productivity remains small, although it has improved over the past two decades. A few countries in the region, for example, Botswana, Ethiopia, and Mauritius, have sustained growth for decades, on par with the world’s best performance. These exceptional “growth miracles” are distinguished by a common set of factors that explain how such miracles start and are sustained: leadership, economic diversification, market expansion, and investment for the future.
  • Publication
    Poverty in a Rising Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-03) Beegle, Kathleen; Christiaensen, Luc; Dabalen, Andrew; Gaddis, Isis
    Perceptions of Africa have changed dramatically. Viewed as a continent of wars, famines and entrenched poverty in the late 1990s, there is now a focus on “Africa rising” and an “African 21st century.” Two decades of unprecedented economic growth in Africa should have brought substantial improvements in well-being. Whether or not they did, remains unclear given the poor quality of the data, the nature of the growth process (especially the role of natural resources), conflicts that affect part of the region, and high population growth. Poverty in a Rising Africa documents the data challenges and systematically reviews the evidence on poverty from monetary and nonmonetary perspectives, as well as a focus on dimensions of inequality. Chapter 1 maps out the availability and quality of the data needed to track monetary poverty, reflects on the governance and political processes that underpin the current situation with respect to data production, and describes some approaches to addressing the data gaps. Chapter 2 evaluates the robustness of the estimates of poverty in Africa. It concludes that poverty reduction in Africa may be slightly greater than traditional estimates suggest, although even the most optimistic estimates of poverty reduction imply that more people lived in poverty in 2012 than in 1990. A broad-stroke profile of poverty and trends in poverty in the region is presented. Chapter 3 broadens the view of poverty by considering nonmonetary dimensions of well-being, such as education, health, and freedom, using Sen's (1985) capabilities and functioning approach. While progress has been made in a number of these areas, levels remain stubbornly low. Chapter 4 reviews the evidence on inequality in Africa. It looks not only at patterns of monetary inequality in Africa but also other dimensions, including inequality of opportunity, intergenerational mobility in occupation and education, and extreme wealth in Africa.
  • Publication
    Local Economic Shocks and Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Rwandan Coffee Mills
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-05) Dabalen, Andrew; TeiMensah, Justice; Nsabimana, Aimable
    This paper examines the medium-term effects of policy- driven income shocks on human capital accumulation in low-income environments. Using administrative data on test scores of the universe of primary school students in Rwanda and the staggered rollout of coffee mills in the country, it shows a positive spillover effect of the coffee mills on students’ performance. Early life exposure to coffee mills is associated with a 0.09 standard deviation (4 percent) increase in student test scores. Improvements in household welfare, child health, and school attendance are likely operative channels of impact.
  • Publication
    Agricultural Windfalls and Electrification
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-08) Dabalen, Andrew; Mensah, Justice Tei; Nsabimana, Aimable; Nshunguyinka, Alexandre
    This paper studies how windfalls from agriculture influence demand for electrification in a developing country. Leveraging two decades of administrative data on the universe of electricity grid customers in Rwanda, and plausibly exogenous variations in international coffee prices, we document two key findings: (I) Historical coffee price booms explain about 4% of the increase in electrification rates in Rwanda. (II) Coffee price shocks are also associated with an increase in electricity consumption by connected households. Relaxing liquidity constraints associated with upfront payment of connection fees and increased demand for electrical appliances are likely mechanisms.
  • Publication
    A Global Count of the Extreme Poor in 2012: Data Issues, Methodology and Initial Results
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10) Dikhanov, Yuri; Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Hamadeh, Nada; Chen, Shaohua; Dabalen, Andrew; Prydz, Espen Beer; Jolliffe, Dean; Sangraula, Prem; Narayan, Ambar; Serajuddin, Umar; Yoshida, Nobuo; Revenga, Ana
    The 2014 release of a new set of purchasing power parity conversion factors (PPPs) for 2011 has prompted a revision of the international poverty line. In order to preserve the integrity of the goalposts for international targets such as the Sustainable Development Goals and the World Bank’s twin goals, the new poverty line was chosen so as to preserve the definition and real purchasing power of the earlier $1.25 line (in 2005 PPPs) in poor countries. Using the new 2011 PPPs, the new line equals $1.90 per person per day. The higher value of the line in US dollars reflects the fact that the new PPPs yield a relatively lower purchasing power of that currency vis-à-vis those of most poor countries. Because the line was designed to preserve real purchasing power in poor countries, the revisions lead to relatively small changes in global poverty incidence: from 14.5 percent in the old method to 14.1 percent in the new method for 2011. In 2012, the new reference year for the global count, we find 12.7 percent of the world’s population, or 897 million people, are living in extreme poverty. There are changes in the regional composition of poverty, but they are also relatively small. This paper documents the detailed methodological decisions taken in the process of updating both the poverty line and the consumption and income distributions at the country level, including issues of inter-temporal and spatial price adjustments. It also describes various caveats, limitations, perils and pitfalls of the approach taken.
  • Publication
    Pathways to Prosperity in Rural Malawi
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-05-31) Karamba, Wendy; Dabalen, Andrew; Nguyen, Nga Thi Viet; de la Fuente, Alejandro; Tanaka, Tomomi; Goyal, Aparajita
    By most accounts, rural Malawi has lacked dynamism in the past decade. Growth has been mostly volatile, in large part due to unstable macroeconomic fundamentals evidenced by high inflation, fiscal deficits, and interest rates. When rapid economic growth has materialized, the gains have not always reached the poorest. Poverty remains high and the rural poor face significant challenges in consistently securing enough food. Several factors contribute to stubbornly high rural poverty. They include a low-productivity and non-diversified agriculture, macroeconomic and recurrent climatic shocks, limited non-farm opportunities and low returns to such activities, especially for the poor, and poor performance from some of the prominent safety net programs. The Report proposes complementary policy actions that offer a possible path for a more dynamic and prosperous rural economy. The key pillars of this comprise macroeconomic stability, increased productivity in agriculture, faster urbanization, better functioning safety nets, and more inclusive financial markets. Some recommendations call for a reorientation of existing programs such as the Malawi Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP) and the Malawi Social Action Fund Public Works Program (MASAF-PWP). Others identify promising new areas of intervention, such as the introduction of digital IDs and biometric technologies to enhance the reach of mobile banking and deepen financial inclusion. Finally, and importantly, the report recommends the scaling up of investments on girls’ secondary education to curb early child marriage and early child bearing among adolescents. This will empower women at home and work and bend the trajectory of fertility rates in rural areas in order to boost human development and reduce poverty.
  • Publication
    The Local Socioeconomic Effects of Gold Mining: Evidence from Ghana
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-04) Chuhan-Pole, Punam; Dabalen, Andrew L.; Kotsadam, Andreas; Sanoh, Aly; Tolonen, Anja
    Ghana is experiencing its third gold rush, and this paper sheds light on the socioeconomic impacts of this rapid expansion in industrial production. The paper uses a rich data set consisting of geocoded household data combined with detailed information on gold mining activities, and conducts two types of difference-in-differences estimations that provide complementary evidence. The first is a local-level analysis that identifies an economic footprint area very close to a mine; the second is a district-level analysis that captures the fiscal channel. The results indicate that men are more likely to benefit from direct employment as miners and that women are more likely to gain from indirect employment opportunities in services, although these results are imprecisely measured. Long-established households gain access to infrastructure, such as electricity and radios. Migrants living close to mines are less likely to have access to electricity and the incidence of diarrheal diseases is higher among migrant children. Overall, however, infant mortality rates decrease significantly in mining communities.
  • Publication
    Can We Measure Resilience? A Proposed Method and Evidence from Countries in the Sahel
    (World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015-01) Alfani, Federica; Dabalen, Andrew; Fisker, Peter; Molini, Vasco
    Although resilience has become a popular concept in studies of poverty and vulnerability, it has been difficult to obtain a credible measure of resilience. This difficulty is because the data required to measure resilience, which involves observing household outcomes over time after every exposure to a shock, are usually unavailable in many contexts. This paper proposes a new method for measuring household resilience using readily available cross section data. Intuitively, a household is considered resilient if there is very little difference between the pre- and post-shock welfare. By obtaining counterfactual welfare for households before and after a shock, households are classified as chronically poor, non-resilient, and resilient. This method is applied to four countries in the Sahel. It is found that Niger, Burkina Faso, and Northern Nigeria have high percentages of chronically poor: respectively, 48, 34, and 27 percent. In Senegal, only 4 percent of the population is chronically poor. The middle group, the non-resilient, accounts for about 70 percent of the households in Senegal, while in the other countries it ranges between 34 and 38 percent. Resilient households account for about 33 percent in all countries except Niger, where the share is around 18 percent.
  • Publication
    Data for Policy Initiative
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06) Himelein, Kristen; Dabalen, Andrew; Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos
    The Data for Policy (D4P) initiative (D4P) is a new World Bank engagement to improve National Statistical Systems (NSS) by enhancing the availability, timeliness, quality, and relevance of key data for evidence-based decision making. Working at national and regional levels, the D4P ‘package’ includes production of a core set of economic, social, and sustainability statistics essential for monitoring and evaluating public policies and programs. Good quality, timely, and relevant statistics are crucial to monitor social and human development outcomes. They can also help identify what policies work, and which do not, in promoting inclusive growth and eradicating poverty. Having reliable, timely data is particularly important for poor countries to allow them to allocate limited resources most efficiently. At the same time, the World Bank’s support for countries’ statistical capacity has become even more critical as the world strives to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).