Person: Islam, Asif M.
Loading...
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Degrees
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated: June 3, 2024
Biography
Asif Islam is a senior economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank Group. His research focuses on private sector development. He has published in peer-reviewed journals on several dimensions of the private sector including entrepreneurship, technology, crime, informality, and gender. He has also published on fiscal policy, environment, and agriculture. He co-authored several reports including the World Development Report (2019) - The Changing Nature of Work, What's Holding Back the Private Sector in MENA? Lessons from the Enterprise Survey, and Uncharted Waters: The New Economics of Water Scarcity and Variability. He holds a PhD in Applied Economics from the University of Maryland-College Park, and a Bachelor’s degree in Economics and Computer Science from Macalester College.
5 results
Publication Search Results
Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
Publication Data Transparency in the Middle East and North Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-03) Islam, Asif M.; Islam, Asif M.Data transparency about critical economic issues may be key to driving growth and enhancing trust in government in the Middle East and North Africa. Several knowledge products and technical analyses on the region have been greatly constrained by the lack of availability of detailed data, and the relatively outdated nature of many available datasets. The goal of this study is to ascertain the state of data systems in the Middle East and North Africa region. Through analysis of several indicators, with their limitations in mind, the study uses descriptive analyses and uncovers six stylized facts of the region: (i) developing economies in the Middle East and North Africa have poor data ecosystems, largely due to the prevalence of conflict; (ii) developing economies in the Middle East and North Africa as a group have experienced the largest deterioration in data systems over time; (iii) data systems in richer economies in the Middle East and North Africa region underperform relative to their income peers; (iv) Gulf Cooperation Council economies underperform in data openness, especially online access, despite having the resources for online features; (v) the regulatory framework for data (data infrastructure) is poor throughout the region, especially in Gulf Cooperation Council economies; and (vi) the dispersion of source data scores – a measure of availability and timeliness of micro data – in the region suggests that national statistical offices in the region could learn from each other. Furthermore, the study summarizes data availability and timeliness for specific macro, micro, and public health indicators for countries across the region. The need for forging a social contract for data is discussed, as well as the role international institutions can play through a statistics compact for the region.Publication The Resilience of SMEs and Large Firms in the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Decomposition Analysis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-12) Amin, Mohammad; Jolevski, Filip; Islam, Asif M.This study analyzes the difference in the decline in sales between small and medium-size enterprises and large firms (the “gap”) following the outbreak of COVID-19 in 19 developing countries. The decline in sales as a percentage of the pre-pandemic level was bigger for small and medium-size enterprises by 12.2 percentage points. The paper uses the Kitagawa-Oaxaca-Blinder and quantile decomposition methods to estimate individual factors’ contributions to the gap at the mean and across the sales decline distribution. Several important results emerge. First, relative to large firms, small and medium-size enterprises faced greater incidence of input supply disruptions during the pandemic, had lower initial labor productivity levels, and were concentrated in country-industry cells with a bigger sales declines. These differences in the level of factors widened the gap. Small and medium-size enterprises also suffered more than large firms from a given level of financial constraints, input supply disruptions, and country-industry-specific factors, and benefitted less from a given level of initial labor productivity. These differences in the returns to factors also widened the gap. Second, the gap was much larger at the relatively high quantiles of sales decline distribution, indicating that relative to large firms, small and medium-size enterprises were much less resilient to large shocks than small shocks. Third, individual factors’ contribution to the gap varied across the sales decline distribution. Thus, the optimal policy mix depends on the size of the shock. Fourth, there were some important differences between geographical regions in what drove the gap. Thus, an eclectic policy approach is needed that duly accounts for the prevailing local conditions.Publication How Prevalent Are Credit-Constrained Firms in the Formal Private Sector?: Evidence Using Global Surveys(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-07-13) Islam, Asif M.This study develops a measure of firm-level credit constraints by leveraging refinements in survey instruments for a widely used database. Using data on more than 65,000 firms across 109 economies, the study uncovers several insights. Around 30 percent of firms in the formal private sector are credit constrained. Firms that are credit-constrained tend to be smaller and negatively correlated with performance. The more developed the economy, the lower the share of credit-constrained firms. One striking finding is that 52 percent of firms do not apply for loans as they have sufficient credit. For some economies, this may be more indicative of poor opportunities for the expansion of firms and thus the lack of demand for credit. The findings suggest that for policies that improve access to credit to be effective, they should go hand in hand with interventions that provide opportunities for firms to expand.Publication Distributional Crowding Out Effects of Public Debt on Private Investment in Developing Economies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-03) Islam, Asif M.; Nguyen, HaThe Covid-19 pandemic, followed by financial tightening due inflationary pressure, has raised public debt in developing economies as governments grapple with public health investments to curb the pandemic and collapse in revenues due to slower economic activity. The rise in debt may further disrupt the formal private sector in developing economies. Using two to three waves of panel firm-level data across developing economies, this study finds that higher public debt is correlated with low investment by formal private sector firms. The finding is largely driven by small and medium-size enterprises, domestic firms, and non-exporters — raising concerns about the distributional impacts. Potential channels are uncovered. High levels of debt reduced the accessibility of finance for private sector firms, limiting investment. Furthermore, a regulatory channel is observed. As public debt rises, firms spend more time with regulatory and tax officials, which is possibly indicative of higher efforts of governments to raise revenues. This channel is stronger for small and medium-size enterprises.Publication Dysfunctional Family Management: Family-Managed Businesses and the Quality of Management Practices(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-01-29) Gatti, Roberta; Islam, Asif M.Better managed firms perform better. Existing evidence has shown that family-managed firms have poorer management practices. Several reasons have been proposed. Limiting to family members reduces the talent pool of potential managers. Family management creates disincentives for other talented workers given that the environment is not meritocratic. Family managers themselves may be less motivated given that they may not have to compete for the position. This study scales up the evidence by exploring the relationship between family managers and management practices for about 9,000 medium and large firms across 41 developing and advanced economies. The study contributes to the literature by investigating several internal and external operating factors that attenuate or accentuate the relationship between family management and the quality of management practices. The engagement of governments in terms of corruption and political connections is found to be influential.