Islam, Asif M.

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Islam, Asif M.

Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan

Author Name Variants

Islam, Asif, Islam, Asif Mohammed

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Office of the Chief Economist, Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan

Last updated:January 9, 2026

Biography

Asif Islam is a Senior Economist at the MENAAP Chief Economist Office, World Bank. His research focuses on private sector development. He has published in peer-reviewed journals on several dimensions of the private sector including entrepreneurship, technology, crime, informality, and gender. He has also published on fiscal policy, environment, and agriculture. He co-authored several reports including the World Development Report (2019) - The Changing Nature of Work, What's Holding Back the Private Sector in MENA? Lessons from the Enterprise Survey, and Uncharted Waters: The New Economics of Water Scarcity and Variability. He holds a PhD in Applied Economics from the University of Maryland-College Park, and a Bachelor’s degree in Economics and Computer Science from Macalester College.

URI

https://hdl.handle.net/10986/39031

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Publication Search Results

Now showing1 - 10 of 65

MENAAP Economic Update, October 2025: Jobs and Women: Untapped Talent, Unrealized Growth
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-10-07) Gatti, Roberta; Özden, Çağlar; Torres, Jesica; Baghdadi, Leila; Sergenti, Ernest John; Islam, Asif M.; Gaddis, Isis; Mele, Gianluca; Chun, Sumin; Parro, Francisco; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam; Ramirez, Angel; Newsome, Richard; Suvanov, Ilias
Growth prospects in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP) are improving, in line with global trends, but conflict, fragility, and displacement remain persistent challenges. Regional GDP is projected to grow by 2.8% in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, up from 2.3% in 2024, driven by stronger-than-expected performance in Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Developing Oil Importers. The latest MENAAP Economic Update, "Jobs and Women: Untapped Talent, Unrealized Growth", argues that job creation and fully leveraging the region's workforce are essential to raising living standards. In this context, the low levels of female labor force participation in the region remain a major obstacle. The report analyzes the barriers—from household dynamics and social norms to legal frameworks and a sluggish private sector—that limit women’s economic participation and makes a compelling case for expanding their role in MENAAP labor markets.
Shifting Gears: The Private Sector as an Engine of Growth in the Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-23) Gatti, Roberta; Onder, Harun; Islam, Asif M.; Torres, Jesica; Mele, Gianluca; Bennett, Federico; Chun, Sumin; Lotfi, Rana; Suvanov, Ilias
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is estimated to have grown at a modest rate of 1.9 percent in 2024 and is expected to grow moderately at 2.6 percent in 2025. This is against a backdrop of increased global uncertainty, particularly in trade policy. The region is far from the frontier in standards of living, largely due to low productivity. This issue of the MENA Economic Update sheds light on a critical engine of productivity growth: the private sector. Businesses create jobs, boost livelihoods, and serve as a bastion of innovation in the economy. The MENA private sector, however, is not dynamic and is ill prepared to absorb shocks. To boost the performance of the private sector, governments in the region may need to rethink their role in engaging with markets including improving competition, the business environment, and the availability of data. Additionally, private sector businesses in the region can increase performance through better management practices and harnessing untapped talent in the region.
Do Informal Businesses with More-Educated Owners Adopt Better Business Practices? Evidence from the Central African Republic
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Amin, Mohammad; Islam, Asif M.; Padhi, Debasmita
The business practices of unregistered or informal enterprises can significantly affect their performance and the overall productivity of the sector. However, very little is known about the prevalence of business practices and the sorts of factors that influence their adoption among informal enterprises. This is especially the case in the context of fragile economies. The present paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by analyzing the adoption of business practices among informal enterprises in the Central African Republic, which serves as a unique context – high informality, low education attainment, and recurrent shocks including conflict and the AIDS epidemic. While several factors correlated with the decision to adopt business practices are uncovered, the focus is on the education level of the business owner or manager. A conservative estimate suggests that relative to no education or up to primary education, secondary or higher education increases the likelihood of adopting one or more of the nine business practices considered by about 10 percentage points. The number of business practices adopted increases by 0.66 (against a mean value of 1.7). The paper shows that the positive impact of education is most likely causal using entropy balancing, inverse probability weighting, the Oster test for selection on observables, and the impact of the AIDS epidemic in the latter half of the 1990s on school enrollment as an instrument for the education level of current business owners. The analysis also finds significant heterogeneities in the relationship between education and business practices. Belonging to a business association and a business owner’s past experience in the industry may compensate for a lack of formal education, while the use of electricity, manufacturing versus services activity, and location in Bangui city versus Berberati complement and magnify the positive effect of education. The paper discusses several avenues for future research.
Long-Term Effects of Early Childhood Exposure to Droughts in MENA
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-21) Elmallakh, Nelly; Gatti, Roberta; Islam, Asif M.; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam
This paper examines the long-term impacts of early-life drought exposure on the human capital and socioeconomic outcomes of women born in the Arab Republic of Egypt, Jordan, and Morocco across more than five decades. Using a pooled cross-section of 13 rounds of the Demographic and Health Surveys, the paper demonstrates that early childhood drought exposure significantly hinders female education, leading to lower educational attainment, increased illiteracy, and reduced likelihood of secondary school completion. These adverse effects are concentrated among women from rural households, suggesting that drought impacts operate through disruptions to agricultural livelihoods. Furthermore, the paper finds that early-life drought exposure is associated with reduced adult height, an increased likelihood of early marriage, and continued engagement in agricultural labor. This study provides novel evidence on the enduring human costs of climate variability in the Middle East and North Africa region, highlighting the urgent need for targeted policy interventions to mitigate the socioeconomic vulnerabilities of rural women in the face of climate change.
The Labor Market Effects of Droughts in MENA
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-21) Elmallakh, Nelly; Faurès, Diego; Gatti, Roberta; Islam, Asif M.
This paper examines the impact of negative precipitation shocks (droughts) on labor markets in the Middle East and North Africa region. Using Labor Force Survey data across five countries over approximately 25 years and matched with fifth generation of atmospheric reanalysis produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts hourly climate data, the study finds that droughts affect labor market outcomes at both the extensive and intensive margins. A negative precipitation shock is associated with a 1 percentage point increase in unemployment and a 4.4 percent reduction in weekly hours worked for both men and women. The results are driven by urban areas, highlighting that the labor market effects of extreme weather events may extend beyond their impact on the agriculture sector and rural areas. However, extreme weather events do negatively affect a subset of the rural population—young women—by increasing unemployment. The findings provide crucial empirical evidence on the socioeconomic costs of climate variability, underscoring the need for targeted policies that address these impacts in urban settings.
Distributional Crowding Out Effects of Public Debt on Private Investment in Developing Economies
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-03) Islam, Asif M.; Nguyen, Ha
The Covid-19 pandemic, followed by financial tightening due inflationary pressure, has raised public debt in developing economies as governments grapple with public health investments to curb the pandemic and collapse in revenues due to slower economic activity. The rise in debt may further disrupt the formal private sector in developing economies. Using two to three waves of panel firm-level data across developing economies, this study finds that higher public debt is correlated with low investment by formal private sector firms. The finding is largely driven by small and medium-size enterprises, domestic firms, and non-exporters — raising concerns about the distributional impacts. Potential channels are uncovered. High levels of debt reduced the accessibility of finance for private sector firms, limiting investment. Furthermore, a regulatory channel is observed. As public debt rises, firms spend more time with regulatory and tax officials, which is possibly indicative of higher efforts of governments to raise revenues. This channel is stronger for small and medium-size enterprises.
Data Transparency and GDP Growth Forecast Errors
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-04-19) Gatti, Roberta; Lederman, Daniel; Islam, Asif M.; Nguyen, Ha; Lotfi, Rana; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam
This paper examines the role of a country’s data transparency in explaining gross domestic product growth forecast errors. It reports four sets of results that have not been previously reported in the existing literature. First, forecast errors—the difference between forecasted and realized gross domestic product growth—are large. Globally, between 2010 and 2020, the average same-year forecast error was 1.3 percentage points for the World Bank’s forecasts published in January of each year, and 1.5 percentage points for the International Monetary Fund’s January forecasts. Second, the Middle East and North Africa region has the largest forecast errors compared to other regions. Third, data capacity and transparency significantly explain forecast errors. On average, an improvement in a country’s Statistical Capacity Index, a measure of data capacity and transparency, is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors. A one standard deviation increase in the log of the Statistical Capacity Index is associated with a decline in absolute forecast errors by 0.44 percentage point for World Bank forecasts and 0.49 percentage point for International Monetary Fund forecasts. The results are robust to a battery of control variables and robustness checks. Fourth, the role of the overall data ecosystem, not just those elements related to gross domestic product growth forecasting, is important for the accuracy of gross domestic product growth forecasts. Finally, gross domestic product growth forecasts from the World Bank are more accurate and less optimistic than those from the International Monetary Fund and the private sector.
Conflict and Debt in the Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-15) Gatti, Roberta; Bennett, Federico; Assem, Hoda; Lotfi, Rana; Mele, Gianluca; Suvanov, Ilias; Islam, Asif M.
The global economy is in its third year of deceleration amidst declining inflation and oil prices. The MENA region grew at 1.9 percent in 2023 and is forecasted to grow at 2.7 percent in 2024. And for the first time since the pandemic, MENA oil exporters and importers will grow at similar rates. The tragedy of the conflict in the Middle East has increased uncertainty. Rising debt leaves many countries in the region exposed. This report unpacks the nature of debt in the region. Oil importers have been unable to either inflate or grow out of debt. Exchange rate fluctuations, and particularly stock flow adjustments (SFA) play a sizeable role. The report highlights the need to address debt transparency. Extrabudgetary items, especially for developing oil importers, need to be accounted for. Primary balances are key, but only to the extent that they capture the true state of government finances.
Extreme Weather Shocks and Firms in the Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-19) Zaveri, Esha; Gatti, Roberta; Islam, Asif M.
The Middle East and North Africa is the most water scarce region in the world. Although studies have explored the effect of extreme weather events on agriculture, much less is known about the effect on businesses. Using geocoded firm-level data from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys across the Middle East and North Africa region, this study analyzes the effects of precipitation shocks on firm performance. The findings show that firms in areas that experience negative precipitation shocks have lower sales, labor productivity, and investment. The study tests a number of channels identified in the literature. Poor infrastructure, such as water and electricity outages, and lower access to finance that occur as a result of negative precipitation shocks are found to be key channels. Negative precipitation increases the share of temporary workers, possibly explaining the drop in labor productivity. A new channel of governance is also uncovered—negative precipitation shocks increase the time spent by senior management in dealing with regulations and expectations of solicitations of bribes. The results also show that firms respond to precipitation shocks by adopting greener practices, suggesting scope for adaptation in the region.
Altered Destinies: The Long-Term Effects of Rising Prices and Food Insecurity in the Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2023-04-06) Gatti, Roberta; Lederman, Daniel; Islam, Asif M.; Andree, Bo, Pieter Johannes; Lotfi, Rana; Mousa, Mennatallah Emam; Bennett, Federico; Assem, Hoda
Growth is forecasted to slow down for the Middle East and North Africa region. The war in Ukraine in 2022 exacerbated inflationary pressures as the world recovered from the COVID 19 pandemic induced recession. The response by central banks to raise rates to curb inflation is slowing economic activity, while rising food prices are making it difficult for families to put meals on the table. Inflation, when it stems from food prices, hits the poor harder than the rich, thus compounding food insecurity in MENA that had been rising over decades. The immediate effects of food insecurity can be a devastating loss of life, but even temporary increases in food prices can cause long-term irreversible damages, especially to children. The rise in food prices due to the war in Ukraine may have altered the destinies of hundreds of thousands of children in the region, setting them on paths to limited prosperity. Food insecurity imposes challenges to a region where the state of child nutrition and health were inadequate before the shocks from the COVID-19 pandemic. The report discusses policy options and highlights the need for data to guide effective decision making.