Winkler, Deborah

Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
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International economics, Global value chains, Export competitiveness, Foreign direct investment, Offshoring, Trade
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Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
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Last updated May 9, 2023
Deborah Winkler is a Senior Economist in the World Bank Group’s Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice. Deborah has worked on issues of global value chains, offshoring, export competitiveness, foreign direct investment, and trade in services; their determinants; and their economic and social effects. She is particularly interested in the role that policy can play in shaping the trade-development nexus and has offered her policy analysis and advice to a variety of client countries spanning all world regions. Ms. Winkler is the author and editor of several flagship publications at the World Bank, including Making Global Value Chains Work for Development (with Daria Taglioni) and Making Foreign Direct Investment Work for Sub-Saharan Africa (with Thomas Farole). Recently, Deborah was a lead author of the Women and Trade Report: The Role of Trade in Promoting Gender Equality and a core team member of the World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains. She is a former Research Associate of the New School for Social Research and received her PhD in economics from the University of Hohenheim in Germany where she authored Outsourcing Economics (with William Milberg, CUP) and Services Offshoring and Its Impact on the Labor Market (Springer). Her articles have appeared in several journals and edited volumes.

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
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    Making Global Value Chains Work for Development
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-05) Taglioni, Daria ; Winkler, Deborah
    Global value chains (GVCs) are playing an increasingly important role in business strategies, which has profoundly changed international trade and development paradigms. GVCs now represent a new path for development by helping developing countries accelerate industrialization and the servicification of the economy. From a firm perspective, production in the context of GVCs highlights the importance of being able to seamlessly connect factories across borders, as well as protect assets such as intellectual property. From the policy maker perspective, the focus is on shifting and improving access to resources while also advancing development goals, and also on the question of whether entry into GVCs delivers labor-market-enhancing outcomes for workers at home, as well as social upgrading. GVCs can lead to development, but, at the country level, constraints such as the supply of various types of labor and skills and inadequate absorptive capacity remain. GVCs can create new opportunities on the labor demand side, but supply and demand cannot meet if the supply is missing. This potential gap illustrates the importance of embedding national GVC policies into a broader portfolio of policies aimed at upgrading skills, physical and regulatory infrastructure, and enhancing social cohesion.
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    Global Value Chain Integration and Productivity: Evidence from Enterprise Surveys in Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-02-26) Winkler, Deborah ; Farole, Thomas
    In order to adequately measure a firm’s participation in GVCs in this context, it is important to first identify the different forms through which GVC integration can affect domestic firms’ productivity. Integrating a country’s domestic suppliers into GVCs increases the possibility for productivity gains through exporting to a buyer abroad or supplying to a multinational in the country. But countries should not neglect the opportunities for productivity gains that GVC participation can provide from a buyer’s perspective. Instead of building a complete array of supply chains at home, firms can join existing supply chains of multinationals through cross-border trade in intermediates and components (Taglioni and Winkler 2015). While Farole and Winkler (2014) focus on the productivity spillovers from multinationals in a country, this note looks at the impact of cross-border sales to international buyers (exporting) or purchases of inputs from international sellers (importing) in GVCs. This note is structured as follows. Section two reviews the relevant literature with regard to productivity effects from GVC participation as well as the role of domestic firm characteristics in this context. Section three introduces the data and econometric model. In section four the author presents our regression results, while section five concludes.
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    Export Competitiveness in Indonesia's Manufacturing Sector
    (World Bank, Jakarta, 2012-09) Winkler, Deborah ; Farole, Thomas
    The Indonesian manufacturing sector experienced a 'lost decade' in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis. While many believe that the sector is now in inexorable decline, this note argues that there may be a 'second chance' for export manufacturing, given Indonesia's relative cost competitiveness, the rapidly growing domestic market, and the opportunities of integrating into value chains facilitated by new regional growth poles. Simply relying on these factors, however, may result in short-term growth but will ultimately lead back to stagnation. Instead, Indonesia must use this opportunity to make an aggressive effort to improve manufacturing sector competitiveness, including addressing traditional investment climate issues, but most importantly, weaknesses in the quality and innovation environment. It is through this that the Indonesian manufacturing sector will begin to move up the value chain, build deep and competitive domestic value chains, and deliver quality and sustainable job opportunities.
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    Why the Manufacturing Sector Still Matters for Growth and Development in Indonesia
    (World Bank, Jakarta, 2012-09) Rahardja, Sjamsu ; Winkler, Deborah ; Varela, G. ; Ing, Lili Yan
    Is Indonesia's manufacturing sector still relevant for growth and development? As a result of the last boom in global commodity prices between 2003 and 2008, resources in Indonesia shifted towards commodities and resource-based manufacturing as these sectors seemed to promise higher returns on investment. In recent quarters, however, the manufacturing sector has exhibited stronger output growth rates and attracted more investment. This note argues that building on the current momentum of manufacturing growth is critical for Indonesia's development (i) to support the creation of higher-productivity jobs, (ii) to sustain higher economic growth and progress in structural change, and (iii) to achieve long-term prosperity. Finally, this note also shows how the Master Plan for the acceleration and expansion of Indonesia's economic development (MP3EI) acknowledges the importance of the manufacturing sector for economic growth.
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    Firm Location and the Determinants of Exporting in Developing Countries
    ( 2011-08-01) Farole, Thomas ; Winkler, Deborah
    Using a cross-section of more than 40,000 manufacturing and services firms in 79 developing countries from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys Database, this paper assesses how firm location determines the likelihood and extent of exporting in developing countries. Descriptive statistics confirm higher export participation (but not intensity) for firms in core versus non-core regions, despite the finding that firms in the core assess many aspects of the investment climate more negatively. Results from a probit model show that, in addition to firm-specific characteristics, both regional investment climate and agglomeration factors have a significant impact on export participation. Specifically, customs clearance and electricity quality matter for export participation for manufacturing firms. Although localization economies and export spillovers are associated with increased exporting, the opposite is found for urbanization economies for both manufacturing and services firms. The analysis finds that firm-level determinants of exporting matter more for firms located in non-core regions, while regional determinants and agglomeration economies play a larger role in core regions. The findings point to the presence of congestion costs in the core, and suggest that policy interventions to target export participation are likely to have a greater impact if they are focused on core regions over non-core regions, where firm-specific factors predominate. Moreover, the importance of export spillovers and localization economies highlights the potential value of efforts to remove barriers to natural agglomeration both in core and non-core regions, for example through investments in infrastructure, the provision of social services, and regional integration arrangements.
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    Trade Crisis and Recovery : Restructuring of Global Value Chains
    ( 2010-05-01) Milberg, William ; Winkler, Deborah
    The recent large and rapid slowdown in economic activity has resulted in even larger and more rapid declines in international trade. As world trade is set to rebound, this paper addresses three questions: (i) Will trade volumes rebound in a symmetric fashion as world economic growth rebounds? (ii) Will the crisis result in a change in the structure of trade, and in particular will it lead to a reversal of the pattern of more diversified sourcing and thus to a consolidation of global value chains? (iii) What policies can improve the prospects for developing country growth in the event that trade volumes do not rebound symmetrically and there is a consolidation of some global value chains?
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    SACU in Global Value Chains: Measuring GVC Integration, Position, and Performance of Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-01) Engel, Jakob ; Winkler, Deborah ; Farole, Thomas
    Once concentrated among a few large economies, global flows of goods, services, and capital now reach an ever larger number of economies worldwide. Global trade in goods and services increased 10 times between 1980 and 2011, while FDI flows increased almost 30-fold. The sales from foreign-owned firms amount to $26 trillion. As many as 3,000 bilateral investment treaties have been signed to create the framework of deep agreements needed not only to facilitate the global movement of final goods and services but also to internationalize entire processes of production. All these flows have grown over time, creating increasingly dense and complex networks. This note is intended provide an overview of SACU countries’ participation and performance in GVCs, drawing on several data sources and indicators, and most importantly the recently released 189-country Eora multi-region-input-output (MRIO) database (Lenzen et al. 2012, 2013). Following this introduction, the note is structured in five additional sections. Section two discusses in greater detail the scope of the report, including the data sources and methodological approaches, as well as their respective limitations. Section three looks at structural integration in trade, including the degree to which SACU countries import and export intermediates. Section four analyzes trends in value-added exports as a first step in exploring GVC participation. Section five hones in on the core measures of GVC participation and a brief analysis of SACU countries’ position in GVCs. Finally, section six concludes by bringing together the main findings from the analysis.