Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
International economics, Global value chains, Export competitiveness, Foreign direct investment, Offshoring, Trade
Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
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Last updated May 9, 2023
Deborah Winkler is a Senior Economist in the World Bank Group’s Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice. Deborah has worked on issues of global value chains, offshoring, export competitiveness, foreign direct investment, and trade in services; their determinants; and their economic and social effects. She is particularly interested in the role that policy can play in shaping the trade-development nexus and has offered her policy analysis and advice to a variety of client countries spanning all world regions. Ms. Winkler is the author and editor of several flagship publications at the World Bank, including Making Global Value Chains Work for Development (with Daria Taglioni) and Making Foreign Direct Investment Work for Sub-Saharan Africa (with Thomas Farole). Recently, Deborah was a lead author of the Women and Trade Report: The Role of Trade in Promoting Gender Equality and a core team member of the World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains. She is a former Research Associate of the New School for Social Research and received her PhD in economics from the University of Hohenheim in Germany where she authored Outsourcing Economics (with William Milberg, CUP) and Services Offshoring and Its Impact on the Labor Market (Springer). Her articles have appeared in several journals and edited volumes.
Publication Search Results
Now showing 1 - 9 of 9
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-05) Taglioni, Daria ; Winkler, DeborahGlobal value chains (GVCs) are playing an increasingly important role in business strategies, which has profoundly changed international trade and development paradigms. GVCs now represent a new path for development by helping developing countries accelerate industrialization and the servicification of the economy. From a firm perspective, production in the context of GVCs highlights the importance of being able to seamlessly connect factories across borders, as well as protect assets such as intellectual property. From the policy maker perspective, the focus is on shifting and improving access to resources while also advancing development goals, and also on the question of whether entry into GVCs delivers labor-market-enhancing outcomes for workers at home, as well as social upgrading. GVCs can lead to development, but, at the country level, constraints such as the supply of various types of labor and skills and inadequate absorptive capacity remain. GVCs can create new opportunities on the labor demand side, but supply and demand cannot meet if the supply is missing. This potential gap illustrates the importance of embedding national GVC policies into a broader portfolio of policies aimed at upgrading skills, physical and regulatory infrastructure, and enhancing social cohesion.
Global Value Chain Integration and Productivity: Evidence from Enterprise Surveys in Namibia, South Africa, and Swaziland(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-02-26) Winkler, Deborah ; Farole, ThomasIn order to adequately measure a firm’s participation in GVCs in this context, it is important to first identify the different forms through which GVC integration can affect domestic firms’ productivity. Integrating a country’s domestic suppliers into GVCs increases the possibility for productivity gains through exporting to a buyer abroad or supplying to a multinational in the country. But countries should not neglect the opportunities for productivity gains that GVC participation can provide from a buyer’s perspective. Instead of building a complete array of supply chains at home, firms can join existing supply chains of multinationals through cross-border trade in intermediates and components (Taglioni and Winkler 2015). While Farole and Winkler (2014) focus on the productivity spillovers from multinationals in a country, this note looks at the impact of cross-border sales to international buyers (exporting) or purchases of inputs from international sellers (importing) in GVCs. This note is structured as follows. Section two reviews the relevant literature with regard to productivity effects from GVC participation as well as the role of domestic firm characteristics in this context. Section three introduces the data and econometric model. In section four the author presents our regression results, while section five concludes.
Potential and Actual FDI Spillovers in Global Value Chains : The Role of Foreign Investor Characteristics, Absorptive Capacity and Transmission Channels(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-04) Winkler, DeborahUsing newly collected survey data on direct supplier-multinational linkages in Chile, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Swaziland, and Vietnam, this paper first evaluates whether foreign investors differ from domestic producers in terms of their potential to generate positive spillovers for local suppliers. It finds that foreign firms outperform domestic producers on several indicators, but have fewer linkages with the local economy and offer less supplier assistance, resulting in offsetting effects on the spillover potential. The paper also studies the relationship between foreign investor characteristics and linkages with the local economy as well as assistance extended to local suppliers. It finds that foreign investor characteristics matter for both. The paper also examines the role of suppliers' absorptive capacities in determining the intensity of their linkages with multinationals. The results indicate that several supplier characteristics matter, but these effects also depend on the length of the supplier relationship. Finally, the paper assesses whether assistance or requirements from a multinational influence spillovers on suppliers. The results confirm the existence of positive effects of assistance (including technical audits, joint product development, and technology licensing) on foreign direct investment spillovers, while the analysis finds no evidence of demand effects.
Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-06-06) Taglioni, Daria ; Winkler, DeborahEconomic, technological, and political shifts as well as changing business strategies have driven firms to unbundle production processes and disperse them across countries. Thanks to these changes, developing countries can now increase their participation in global value chains (GVCs) and thus become more competitive in agriculture, manufacturing and services. This is a paradigm shift from the 20th century when countries had to build the entire supply chain domestically to become competitive internationally. For policymakers, the focus is on boosting domestic value added and improving access to resources and technology while advancing development goals. However, participating in global value chains does not automatically improve living standards and social conditions in a country. This requires not only improving the quality and quantity of production factors and redressing market failures, but also engineering equitable distributions of opportunities and outcomes - including employment, wages, work conditions, economic rights, gender equality, economic security, and protecting the environment. The internationalization of production processes helps with very few of these development challenges. Following this perspective, Making Global Value Chains Work for Development offers a strategic framework, analytical tools, and policy options to address this challenge. The book conceptualizes GVCs and makes it easier for policymakers and practitioners to discuss them and their implications for development. It shows why GVCs require fresh thinking; it serves as a repository of analytical tools; and it proposes a strategic framework to guide policymakers in identifying the key objectives of GVC participation and in selecting suitable economic strategies to achieve them.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-03) Fernandes, Ana ; Kee, Hiau Looi ; Winkler, DeborahThe past decades witnessed big changes in international trade with the rise of global value chains. Some countries, such as China, Poland, and Vietnam, rode the tide, while other countries, many in the Africa region, faltered. This paper studies the determinants of participation in global value chains, based on empirical evidence from a panel data set covering more than 100 countries over the past three decades. The evidence shows that factor endowments, geography, political stability, liberal trade policies, foreign direct investment inflows, and domestic industrial capacity are very important in determining participation in global value chains. These factors affect participation in global value chains more than traditional exports.
Publication(World Bank, Jakarta, 2012-09) Winkler, Deborah ; Farole, ThomasThe Indonesian manufacturing sector experienced a 'lost decade' in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis. While many believe that the sector is now in inexorable decline, this note argues that there may be a 'second chance' for export manufacturing, given Indonesia's relative cost competitiveness, the rapidly growing domestic market, and the opportunities of integrating into value chains facilitated by new regional growth poles. Simply relying on these factors, however, may result in short-term growth but will ultimately lead back to stagnation. Instead, Indonesia must use this opportunity to make an aggressive effort to improve manufacturing sector competitiveness, including addressing traditional investment climate issues, but most importantly, weaknesses in the quality and innovation environment. It is through this that the Indonesian manufacturing sector will begin to move up the value chain, build deep and competitive domestic value chains, and deliver quality and sustainable job opportunities.
Publication(World Bank, Jakarta, 2012-09) Rahardja, Sjamsu ; Winkler, Deborah ; Varela, G. ; Ing, Lili YanIs Indonesia's manufacturing sector still relevant for growth and development? As a result of the last boom in global commodity prices between 2003 and 2008, resources in Indonesia shifted towards commodities and resource-based manufacturing as these sectors seemed to promise higher returns on investment. In recent quarters, however, the manufacturing sector has exhibited stronger output growth rates and attracted more investment. This note argues that building on the current momentum of manufacturing growth is critical for Indonesia's development (i) to support the creation of higher-productivity jobs, (ii) to sustain higher economic growth and progress in structural change, and (iii) to achieve long-term prosperity. Finally, this note also shows how the Master Plan for the acceleration and expansion of Indonesia's economic development (MP3EI) acknowledges the importance of the manufacturing sector for economic growth.
Publication( 2011-08-01) Farole, Thomas ; Winkler, DeborahUsing a cross-section of more than 40,000 manufacturing and services firms in 79 developing countries from the World Bank's Enterprise Surveys Database, this paper assesses how firm location determines the likelihood and extent of exporting in developing countries. Descriptive statistics confirm higher export participation (but not intensity) for firms in core versus non-core regions, despite the finding that firms in the core assess many aspects of the investment climate more negatively. Results from a probit model show that, in addition to firm-specific characteristics, both regional investment climate and agglomeration factors have a significant impact on export participation. Specifically, customs clearance and electricity quality matter for export participation for manufacturing firms. Although localization economies and export spillovers are associated with increased exporting, the opposite is found for urbanization economies for both manufacturing and services firms. The analysis finds that firm-level determinants of exporting matter more for firms located in non-core regions, while regional determinants and agglomeration economies play a larger role in core regions. The findings point to the presence of congestion costs in the core, and suggest that policy interventions to target export participation are likely to have a greater impact if they are focused on core regions over non-core regions, where firm-specific factors predominate. Moreover, the importance of export spillovers and localization economies highlights the potential value of efforts to remove barriers to natural agglomeration both in core and non-core regions, for example through investments in infrastructure, the provision of social services, and regional integration arrangements.
Publication( 2010-05-01) Milberg, William ; Winkler, DeborahThe recent large and rapid slowdown in economic activity has resulted in even larger and more rapid declines in international trade. As world trade is set to rebound, this paper addresses three questions: (i) Will trade volumes rebound in a symmetric fashion as world economic growth rebounds? (ii) Will the crisis result in a change in the structure of trade, and in particular will it lead to a reversal of the pattern of more diversified sourcing and thus to a consolidation of global value chains? (iii) What policies can improve the prospects for developing country growth in the event that trade volumes do not rebound symmetrically and there is a consolidation of some global value chains?