Winkler, Deborah

Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
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Fields of Specialization
International economics, Global value chains, Export competitiveness, Foreign direct investment, Offshoring, Trade
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Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice
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Last updated May 9, 2023
Deborah Winkler is a Senior Economist in the World Bank Group’s Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice. Deborah has worked on issues of global value chains, offshoring, export competitiveness, foreign direct investment, and trade in services; their determinants; and their economic and social effects. She is particularly interested in the role that policy can play in shaping the trade-development nexus and has offered her policy analysis and advice to a variety of client countries spanning all world regions. Ms. Winkler is the author and editor of several flagship publications at the World Bank, including Making Global Value Chains Work for Development (with Daria Taglioni) and Making Foreign Direct Investment Work for Sub-Saharan Africa (with Thomas Farole). Recently, Deborah was a lead author of the Women and Trade Report: The Role of Trade in Promoting Gender Equality and a core team member of the World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains. She is a former Research Associate of the New School for Social Research and received her PhD in economics from the University of Hohenheim in Germany where she authored Outsourcing Economics (with William Milberg, CUP) and Services Offshoring and Its Impact on the Labor Market (Springer). Her articles have appeared in several journals and edited volumes.

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
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    Potential and Actual FDI Spillovers in Global Value Chains : The Role of Foreign Investor Characteristics, Absorptive Capacity and Transmission Channels
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-04) Winkler, Deborah
    Using newly collected survey data on direct supplier-multinational linkages in Chile, Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Swaziland, and Vietnam, this paper first evaluates whether foreign investors differ from domestic producers in terms of their potential to generate positive spillovers for local suppliers. It finds that foreign firms outperform domestic producers on several indicators, but have fewer linkages with the local economy and offer less supplier assistance, resulting in offsetting effects on the spillover potential. The paper also studies the relationship between foreign investor characteristics and linkages with the local economy as well as assistance extended to local suppliers. It finds that foreign investor characteristics matter for both. The paper also examines the role of suppliers' absorptive capacities in determining the intensity of their linkages with multinationals. The results indicate that several supplier characteristics matter, but these effects also depend on the length of the supplier relationship. Finally, the paper assesses whether assistance or requirements from a multinational influence spillovers on suppliers. The results confirm the existence of positive effects of assistance (including technical audits, joint product development, and technology licensing) on foreign direct investment spillovers, while the analysis finds no evidence of demand effects.
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    Export Competitiveness in Indonesia's Manufacturing Sector
    (World Bank, Jakarta, 2012-09) Winkler, Deborah ; Farole, Thomas
    The Indonesian manufacturing sector experienced a 'lost decade' in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis. While many believe that the sector is now in inexorable decline, this note argues that there may be a 'second chance' for export manufacturing, given Indonesia's relative cost competitiveness, the rapidly growing domestic market, and the opportunities of integrating into value chains facilitated by new regional growth poles. Simply relying on these factors, however, may result in short-term growth but will ultimately lead back to stagnation. Instead, Indonesia must use this opportunity to make an aggressive effort to improve manufacturing sector competitiveness, including addressing traditional investment climate issues, but most importantly, weaknesses in the quality and innovation environment. It is through this that the Indonesian manufacturing sector will begin to move up the value chain, build deep and competitive domestic value chains, and deliver quality and sustainable job opportunities.
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    Why the Manufacturing Sector Still Matters for Growth and Development in Indonesia
    (World Bank, Jakarta, 2012-09) Rahardja, Sjamsu ; Winkler, Deborah ; Varela, G. ; Ing, Lili Yan
    Is Indonesia's manufacturing sector still relevant for growth and development? As a result of the last boom in global commodity prices between 2003 and 2008, resources in Indonesia shifted towards commodities and resource-based manufacturing as these sectors seemed to promise higher returns on investment. In recent quarters, however, the manufacturing sector has exhibited stronger output growth rates and attracted more investment. This note argues that building on the current momentum of manufacturing growth is critical for Indonesia's development (i) to support the creation of higher-productivity jobs, (ii) to sustain higher economic growth and progress in structural change, and (iii) to achieve long-term prosperity. Finally, this note also shows how the Master Plan for the acceleration and expansion of Indonesia's economic development (MP3EI) acknowledges the importance of the manufacturing sector for economic growth.
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    Vietnam: Connecting Value Chains for Trade Competitiveness
    (World Bank, Hanoi, 2019-12) Pham, Duc Minh ; Hollweg, Claire Honore ; Mtonya, Brian ; Winkler, Deborah Elisabeth ; Nguyen, Thuy
    Vietnam's export-led growth strategy and global integration are among the key factors behind thecountry's remarkable achievements in growth and poverty reduction over the last two and a halfdecades. During this period, Vietnam's per capita income increased nearly fourfold and povertywas reduced from around 53 percent in 1992 to 2 percent in 2016. Vietnam has become one of themost open economies in the world with a trade-to-GDP ratio of 187.52 percent in 2018. Merchandiseexport growth averaged more than 15 percent per annum in the last ten years; nearly five times theglobal export growth. The country's export basket has improved in its technological content and hasdiversified in both its geographic destination and its product mix. There are nevertheless challenges that continue to confront Vietnam’s export performance. Many of Vietnam's manufacturing exports have low domestic value addition, where Vietnam performs primarily assembly functions. Trade costs remain high compared to the average regional level. Domestic firms' participation in key global value chains (GVCs) is limited, and instead, export performance is largely driven by the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector, accounting for more than 70 percent of total exports. Vietnam will likely be able to maintain its high export performance even if these challenges are not addressed, but there is scope for Vietnam to benefit even more from trade.