Person:
Umapathi, Nithin

Social Protection and Labor Global Practice, World Bank
Profile Picture
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Social assistance, Energy subsidies, Social insurance, Labor markets, Income transfers
Degrees
ORCID
0000-0001-8452-3201
Departments
Social Protection and Labor Global Practice, World Bank
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated: October 11, 2023
Biography

Nithin Umapthai works on the welfare state design spanning the design of income transfers, social insurance, and labor market interventions. He co-authored the EAP flagship report on Aging in East Asia and Pacific and has written on wide-ranging topics, including on social protection, education, early childhood interventions, and econometrics of program evaluation. He has published in peer reviewed journals such as Journal of Applied Econometrics, World Development, Journal of Development Studies, Journal of African Economies, Journal of Development Effectiveness, Asia & the Pacific Policy Studies and Asia Pacific Viewpoint. Over the last few years he has been active in advisory and technical assistance roles in supporting energy subsidy reforms. 

Citations 49 Scopus

Filters

2014 - 20173
Browse document type tree
Reset filters

Settings

Statistics
Citations
Author: Sicular, Terry × Has files: Yes ×

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Thumbnail Image
    Publication
    Unconditional Cash Transfers in China: Who Benefits from the Rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee (Dibao) Program?
    (Elsevier, 2017-05) Golan, Jennifer; Sicular, Terry; Umapathi, Nithin
    This paper analyzes China’s rural minimum living standard guarantee (dibao) program, one of the largest minimum income cash transfer schemes in the world, and examines possible changes to the program design. Despite its size and central position in China’s current poverty reduction strategy, little is known about the rural dibao program’s performance and targeting effectiveness. Our analysis uses annual household survey data from the China Household Income Project matched with published administrative data for the years 2007–09. We find that the program provides sufficient income to poor beneficiaries but does not substantially reduce the overall level of poverty. Conventional targeting analysis reveals large inclusionary and exclusionary targeting errors; propensity score targeting analysis yields smaller but still large targeting errors. Simulations of possible changes to the program design reveal that expanding coverage can potentially yield greater poverty reduction than increasing transfer amounts. Replacing locally diverse dibao lines and transfer amounts with a nationally uniform dibao threshold and transfer could in theory reduce poverty further, but the potential gains are modest without improvements in targeting. This paper makes several contributions. To our knowledge this is the first household-level empirical analysis of China’s dibao program in rural areas, so the findings provide new, policy-relevant information. Moreover, the literature has not settled the question of whether such programs should be centralized or decentralized. We show that in practice the potential gains of centralizing the eligibility rule and transfer amount are conditional on the efficiency of targeting. By varying the program’s key design parameters our analysis also yields insights into alternative policy recommendations to improve the program performance.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Publication
    Any Guarantees? China's Rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee Program
    (World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-08) Golan, Jennifer; Sicular, Terry; Umapathi, Nithin
    This paper examines China's rural minimum living standard guarantee (dibao) program, one of the largest targeted transfer schemes in the world. Using household survey data matched with published administrative data, the authors provide background on the patterns of inequality and poverty in rural China, describe the dibao program, estimate the program's impact on poverty, and carry out targeting analysis. The authors find that the program provides sufficient income to poor beneficiaries but does not substantially reduce the overall level of poverty, in part because the number of beneficiaries is small relative to the number of poor. Conventional targeting analysis reveals rather large inclusionary and exclusionary targeting errors; propensity score targeting analysis yields smaller but still large targeting errors. Simulations of possible reforms to the dibao program indicate that expanding coverage can potentially yield greater poverty reduction than increasing transfer amounts. In addition, replacing locally diverse dibao lines with a nationally uniform dibao threshold can in theory reduce poverty. The potential gains in poverty reduction, however, depend on the effectiveness of targeting.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Publication
    Unconditional Cash Transfers in China: An Analysis of the Rural Minimum Living Standard Guarantee Program
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-07) Golan, Jennifer; Sicular, Terry; Umapathi, Nithin
    This paper examines China’s rural minimum living standard guarantee (dibao) program, one of the largest minimum income cash transfer schemes in the world. Using household survey data matched with published administrative data, the paper describes the dibao program, estimates the program’s impact on poverty, and carries out targeting analysis. The analysis finds that the program provides sufficient income to poor beneficiaries but does not substantially reduce the overall level of poverty, in part because the number of beneficiaries is small relative to the number of poor. Conventional targeting analysis reveals rather large inclusionary and exclusionary targeting errors; propensity score targeting analysis yields smaller but still large targeting errors. Simulations of possible reforms to the dibao program indicate that expanding coverage can potentially yield greater poverty reduction than increasing transfer amounts. In addition, replacing locally diverse dibao lines with a nationally uniform dibao threshold could in theory reduce poverty. The potential gains in poverty reduction, however, depend on the effectiveness of targeting.