Winkler, Hernán

Poverty and Equity Global Practice of the World Bank
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Labor economics, Poverty, Inequality, Migration
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Last updated January 31, 2023
Hernan Winkler is a Senior Economist in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice. He specializes in labor economics, migration, and the sources and consequences of inequality and poverty. His research has been published in peer-reviewed journals including the Review of Economics and Statistics, the Journal of Development Economics and the Journal of Human Resources. He has led several World Bank reports including Reaping Digital Dividends: Leveraging the Internet for Development in Europe and Central Asia. Before joining the World Bank, he was a Researcher at CEDLAS. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of California at Los Angeles (UCLA).
Citations 116 Scopus

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 5 of 5
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    Explaining the Evolution of Job Tenure in Europe, 1995–2020
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10) Bussolo, Maurizio ; Capelle, Damien ; Lokshin, Michael M. ; Torre, Iván ; Winkler, Hernan
    During the last quarter century, job tenure in Europe has shortened. Using data from Eurostat Labor Force Surveys of 29 countries from 1995 to 2020 and applying an age-period-cohort decomposition to analyze changes in tenure for specific birth cohorts, this paper shows that tenure has shrunk for cohorts born in more recent years. To account for compositional changes within cohorts, the analysis estimates the probability of holding jobs of different durations, conditional on individual and employment-related characteristics. The estimations demonstrate that, over time, the likelihood of having a medium- or long-term job decreased and holding a short-term job increased. The paper also finds that stricter job protection legislation appears to decrease the probability of holding a short-term job, and higher trade openness and ICT-related technological change are correlated with an increase of that probability.
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    Reaping Digital Dividends: Leveraging the Internet for Development in Europe and Central Asia
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-03-07) Kelly, Tim ; Liaplina, Aleksandra ; Tan, Shawn W. ; Winkler, Hernan
    From East to West, the economies of Europe and Central Asia (ECA) are not taking full advantage of the internet to foster economic growth and job creation. The residents of Central Asia and the South Caucasus pay some of the highest prices in the world for internet connections that are slow and unreliable. In contrast, Europe enjoys some of the world’s fastest and affordable internet services. However, its firms and individuals are not fully exploiting the internet to achieve higher productivity growth as well as more and better jobs. Reaping Digital Dividends investigates the barriers that are holding back the broader adoption of the internet in ECA. The report identifies the main bottlenecks and provides policy recommendations tailored to economies at varying levels of digital development. It concludes that policies to increase internet access are necessary but not sufficient. Policies to foster competition, international trade and skills supply, as well as adapting regulations to the changing business environment and labor markets, will also be necessary. In other words, Reaping Digital Dividends not only requires better connectivity, but also complementary factors that allow governments, firms and individuals to make the most out of it.
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    Greying the Budget: Ageing and Preferences over Public Policies
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-02) de Mello, Luiz ; Schotte, Simone ; Tiongson, Erwin R. ; Winkler, Hernan
    This paper looks at how individual preferences for the allocation of government spending change along the life cycle. Using the Life in Transition Survey II for 34 countries in Europe and Central Asia, the study finds that older individuals are less likely to support a rise in government outlays on education and more likely to support increases in spending on pensions. These results are very similar across countries, and they do not change when using alternative model specifications, estimation methods, and data sources. Using repeated cross-sections, the analysis controls for cohort effects and confirms the main results. The findings are consistent with a body of literature arguing that conflict across generations over the allocation of public expenditures may intensify in ageing economies.
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    How is the Internet Changing Labor Market Arrangements?: Evidence from Telecommunications Reforms in Europe
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-02) Vazquez, Emmanuel ; Winkler, Hernan
    This paper exploits variations in the timing of telecommunications reforms across Europe to analyze the relationship between the rise of alternative work arrangements and the emergence of the Internet. The paper evaluates whether sectors that are technologically more dependent on information and communications technologies experienced disproportionately larger changes in their employment outcomes after telecommunications reforms were introduced. The main results point to a disproportionate increase in total employment, part-time work, and home-based work among information and communications technologies–intensive sectors after the implementation of telecommunications reforms. The analysis does not find a link between the incidence of temporary employment, self-employment, second job holding, and telecommunications reforms. The main results are robust to several specifications.
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    The Labor Market Effects of Financial Crises: The Role of Temporary Contracts in Central and Western Europe
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-06) Sharma, Siddharth ; Winkler, Hernan
    This paper examines how the 2008-09 financial crisis affected labor markets in Central and Western Europe, and how this impact depended on employment protections laws. Using a differences-in-differences approach that compares industries with varying degrees of inherent dependence on external financing, the analysis finds that the crisis had significant negative impacts on employment, particularly on temporary, less skilled, and younger workers. These impacts on the level and composition of employment were significantly stronger in countries with stronger legal protection of permanent workers from dismissal. This finding suggests that, given regulatory inflexibility in adjusting the permanent workforce, firms responded to tightening financial constraints by disproportionately laying off temporary workers (who tend to be younger and less skilled than permanent workers).