Lugo, Maria Ana

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Lugo, Maria Ana

Global Practice for Poverty Reduction, The World Bank

Fields of Specialization

equality of opportunities; poverty measurement and analysis; multi-dimensional poverty

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Global Practice for Poverty Reduction, The World Bank

Last updated: September 4, 2024

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 12

How Redistributive Is Fiscal Policy in China? New Evidence on the Distributional Impacts of Taxes and Spending
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-04) Lugo, Maria Ana; Lustig, Nora; Montalva Talledo, Veronica Sonia; Tiwari, Sailesh; Wang, Yang
How redistributive are fiscal policies in China This paper applies the standard fiscal incidence analysis to data from the China Family Panel Study 2018 to study the effect of government taxes and spending on inequality in China. The analysis includes fiscal elements, such as personal income tax, contributions to social insurance, value-added tax, consumption tax, cash transfers, contributory pensions, and spending on education and health, and accounts for 63 percent of total revenues and 43 percent of total government spending. Consistent with previous studies, the paper finds that fiscal policy in China continues to redistribute quite effectively, achieving inequality reduction of about 10.3 Gini points, placing China around the median of upper-middle-income country peers on the level of redistribution achieved by fiscal policy. Not unlike several other countries where similar analysis has been done, most of the inequality reduction achieved by China is through education and health spending. Findings from the paper further suggest that while the fiscal system delivers more to those who need the most support, the heavy burden of user fees—relative to disposable income—may prevent some families from accessing needed health care services and imply high costs of raising children. In addition, there is room for the progressivity of the overall package to be enhanced. In particular, the fiscal system could make a greater dent in inequality by collecting more from those who could afford to pay more and leaving more money in the pockets of those who need it the most. This could be done by increasing the share of fiscal revenues collected through progressive taxes such as personal income tax and increasing the level of cash-based social benefits (such as residents’ pensions and transfers).
Rural Poverty Reduction and Economic Transformation in China: A Decomposition Approach
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11) Niu, Chiyu; Lugo, Maria Ana; Yemtsov, Ruslan
Rural poverty in China fell from 96 percent in 1980 to less than 1 percent of the population in 2019. Using PovcalNet data for China and a set of comparable countries, this paper estimates growth-poverty elasticities. It finds that China stands out for its record of sustained, fast growth, rather than because of an unusually high growth-poverty elasticity. In addition, changes in mean consumption, rather than changes in the distribution, drive poverty reduction. Furthermore, until 2010, changes in inequality attenuated the impact of growth on poverty. The paper also studies which channels mattered the most for rural poverty reduction by applying a decomposition framework to multiple rounds of Chinese Household Income Project surveys conducted in 1988, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2013, and 2018. The findings show that broad-based, labor-intensive growth in agriculture was initially the main driving force for rural poverty reduction, followed by the expansion of non-agriculture sectors. As the country’s poverty rate approached 10 percent by 2007, transfers from migrant workers and, later, public transfers became the major drivers of further rural poverty reduction. Throughout the period, the fall in the demographic dependency rate also played a significant role. As China’s living standards continue to rise, the official definition of poverty will have to adjust to the higher minimum. Continued structural transformation and the inclusive growth agenda retain crucial importance for sustained poverty reduction.
Inequality under COVID-19: Taking Stock of High-Frequency Data for East Asia and the Pacific
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-11) Kim, Lydia Y.; Lugo, Maria Ana; Mason, Andrew D.; Uochi, Ikuko
While the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been well-documented in high-income countries, studies in low- and middle-income countries have been relatively rare due to data limitations. This paper uses pre-pandemic household welfare data and high-frequency household phone survey data from seven middle-income countries in East Asia and the Pacific, spanning May 2020 to May 2021, to analyze the distributional impacts of the pandemic and their implications for equitable recovery. The results indicate that employment impacts at the extensive margin have been large and widespread across the welfare distribution during times of stringent mobility restrictions (low mobility). When mobility restrictions have been relaxed, however, employment impacts have been larger among poorer workers who have found it more difficult to return to employment. Data on the loss of labor income also suggests that the pandemic has exacerbated existing inequalities. In addition to being more susceptible to employment and income shocks, poorer households in East Asia and the Pacific are at higher risk of experiencing long-term scarring from the pandemic – due to rising food insecurity, increased debt, distress sale of assets, and fewer distance/interactive learning opportunities for their children. Taken together, the findings indicate that inequality has worsened during the pandemic, raising concerns about the prospects for an inclusive recovery in the absence of appropriate policy measures.
Economic Mobility and the Rise of the Latin American Middle Class
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013) Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Messina, Julian; Rigolini, Jamele; López-Calva, Luis-Felipe; Lugo, Maria Ana; Vakis, Renos
After decades of stagnation, the size of Latin America's middle class recently expanded to the point where, for the first time ever, the number of people in poverty is equal to the size of the middle class. This volume investigates the nature, determinants and possible consequences of this remarkable process of social transformation. We propose an original definition of the middle class, tailor-made for Latin America, centered on the concept of economic security and thus a low probability of falling into poverty. Given our definition of the middle class, there are four, not three, classes in Latin America. Sandwiched between the poor and the middle class there lies a large group of people who appear to make ends meet well enough, but do not enjoy the economic security that would be required for membership of the middle class. We call this group the 'vulnerable'. In an almost mechanical sense, these transformations in Latin America reflect both economic growth and declining inequality in over the period. We adopt a measure of mobility that decomposes the 'gainers' and 'losers' in society by social class of each household. The continent has experienced a large amount of churning over the last 15 years, at least 43% of all Latin Americans changed social classes between the mid 1990s and the end of the 2000s. Despite the upward mobility trend, intergenerational mobility, a better proxy for inequality of opportunity, remains stagnant. Educational achievement and attainment remain to be strongly dependent upon parental education levels. Despite the recent growth in pro-poor programs, the middle class has benefited disproportionally from social security transfers and are increasingly opting out from government services. Central to the region's prospects of continued progress will be its ability to harness the new middle class into a new, more inclusive social contract, where the better-off pay their fair share of taxes, and demand improved public services.
The Incidence of Subsidies to Residential Public Services in Argentina: The Subsidy System in 2014 and Some Alternatives
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016) Puig, Jorge; Lakner, Christoph; Salinardi, Leandro; Lugo, Maria Ana; Viveros, Martha
More than a decade of energy and transport subsidies have weakened Argentina’s fiscal capacity. Following the 2001 crisis, public services tariffs were frozen in an attempt to offset the negative effects on households’ real purchasing power. However, these subsidies steadily increased over the years, particularly since 2006, becoming a significant fiscal burden. Though subsidies can be a tool to protect the poor, in Argentina they led to distortions and a large share have been absorbed by upper classes and non-residential consumers. This report starts by analyzing the incidence of the 2014 system of residential federal subsidies to residential public services (defined as electricity, gas, water and transport) building on the work by Puig and Salinardi (2015). This paper consists of six main sections. Section two presents the results on the incidence of subsidies to public services. Section three simulates the distributional impacts of alternative systems for electricity, gas and transport subsidies. Section four concludes. The methodological Appendix provides full details of the methods and data used in this paper.
Inequality of Opportunity and Economic Growth : A Cross-Country Analysis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-06) Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Lakner, Christoph; Lugo, Maria Ana; Ozler, Berk
Income differences arise from many sources. While some kinds of inequality, caused by effort differences, might be associated with faster economic growth, other kinds, arising from unequal opportunities for investment, might be detrimental to economic progress. This study uses two new metadata sets, consisting of 118 household surveys and 134 Demographic and Health Surveys, to revisit the question of whether inequality is associated with economic growth and, in particular, to examine whether inequality of opportunity -- driven by circumstances at birth -- has a negative effect on subsequent growth. The results are suggestive but not robust: while overall income inequality is generally negatively associated with growth in the household survey sample, we find no evidence that this is due to the component associated with unequal opportunities. In the Demographic and Health Surveys sample, both overall wealth inequality and inequality of opportunity have a negative effect on growth in some of the preferred specifications, but the results are not robust to relatively minor changes. On balance, although the results are suggestive of a negative association between inequality and growth, the data do not permit robust conclusions as to whether inequality of opportunity is bad for growth.
Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001/02 Argentine Crisis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-04) Cabanillas, Oscar Barriga; Lugo, Maria Ana; Nielsen, Hannah; Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos; Zanetti, Maria Pia
The 2001/02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay's economy. Uruguay's gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in just two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its pre-crisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be considerably lower, inequality would not change significantly, and household incomes would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower for those households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). Young individuals, female-headed households, those living in Montevideo, and those who do not have complete secondary education are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike.
Income and Beyond: Multidimensional Poverty in Six Latin American Countries
(Springer Netherlands, 2013-06) Battiston, Diego; Cruces, Guillermo; López-Calva, Luis F.; Lugo, Maria Ana; Santos, Maria Emma
This paper studies multidimensional poverty for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, El Salvador, Mexico and Uruguay for the period 1992–2006. The approach overcomes the limitations of the two traditional methods of poverty analysis in Latin America (income-based and unmet basic needs) by combining income with five other dimensions: school attendance for children, education of the household head, sanitation, water and shelter. The results allow a fuller understanding of the evolution of poverty in the selected countries. Over the study period, El Salvador, Brazil, Mexico and Chile experienced significant reductions in multidimensional poverty. In contrast, in urban Uruguay there was a small reduction in multidimensional poverty, while in urban Argentina the estimates did not change significantly. El Salvador, Brazil and Mexico, and rural areas of Chile display significantly higher and more simultaneous deprivations than urban areas of Argentina, Chile and Uruguay. In all countries, deprivation in access to proper sanitation and education of the household head are the highest contributors to overall multidimensional poverty.
Opportunity-Sensitive Poverty Measurement
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-12) Brunori, Paolo; Ferreira, Francisco; Lugo, Maria Ana; Peragine, Vito
This paper offers an axiomatic characterization of two classes of poverty measures that are sensitive to inequality of opportunity, one a strict subset of the other. The proposed indices are sensitive not only to income shortfalls from the poverty line, but also to differences in the opportunities faced by people with different predetermined characteristics, such as race or family background. Dominance conditions are established for each class of measures and a sub-family of scalar indices, based on a rank-dependent aggregation of type-specific poverty levels, is also introduced. In empirical analysis using household survey data from eighteen European countries in 2005, substantial differences in country rankings based on standard Foster-Greer-Thorbecke indices and on the new opportunity-sensitive indices are found. Cross-country differences in opportunity-sensitive poverty are decomposed into a level effect, a distribution effect, and a population composition effect.
Multidimensional Poverty Analysis : Looking for a Middle Ground
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2013-08-01) Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Lugo, Maria Ana
Widespread agreement that poverty is a multifaceted phenomenon encompassing deprivations in multiple dimensions clashes with the vociferous disagreement about how best to measure these deprivations. Drawing on the recent literature, this short paper reviews three methodological alternatives to the false dichotomy between scalar indices of multidimensional poverty, on the one hand, and a “dashboard” approach that considers only marginal distributions, on the other. These alternatives include simple Venn diagrams of the overlap of deprivations across dimensions, multivariate stochastic dominance analysis, and the analysis of copula functions, which capture the extent of interdependency across dimensions. Examples are provided from the literature on both developing and developed countries.