Freund, Caroline

Person:
Freund, Caroline

Macroeconomics Trade & Investment

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Macroeconomics Trade & Investment

Last updated: November 1, 2023

Biography

Caroline Freund is Director of Trade, Regional Integration and Investment Climate. Previously she was a Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. She has also worked as Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa at the World Bank, after working for nearly a decade in the international trade unit of the research department. Freund began her career in the international finance division of the Federal Reserve Board and spent a year visiting the research department of the IMF. She has published extensively in academic journals and is the author of Rich People Poor Countries: The Rise of Emerging Market Tycoons and their Mega Firms. She is a US national and received a PhD in economics from Columbia University.

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Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 12

Regional Trade Agreements
(2010-05-01) Ornelas, Emanuel; Freund, Caroline
This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on regionalism. The formation of regional trade agreements has been, by far, the most popular form of reciprocal trade liberalization in the past 15 years. The discriminatory character of these agreements has raised three main concerns: that trade diversion would be rampant, because special interest groups would induce governments to form the most distortionary agreements; that broader external trade liberalization would stall or reverse; and that multilateralism could be undermined. Theoretically, all of these concerns are legitimate, although there are also several theoretical arguments that oppose them. Empirically, neither widespread trade diversion nor stalled external liberalization has materialized, while the undermining of multilateralism has not been properly tested. There are also several aspects of regionalism that have received too little attention from researchers, but which are central to understanding its causes and consequences.
Is 3D Printing a Threat to Global Trade? The Trade Effects You Didn't Hear About
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-09) Mulabdic, Alen; Freund, Caroline; Ruta, Michele
In the mid-2000s, the production of hearing aids shifted almost entirely to 3D printing. Using difference-in-differences and synthetic control methods, this paper examines the effects of this shift on trade flows. The analysis finds that trade increased roughly 60 percent following the introduction of 3D printing. Revealed comparative advantage was reinforced, with exports growing most rapidly for middle- and high-income countries. The analysis also finds that developing countries increased their imports of hearing aids as a result of the innovation, benefitting consumers. As a robustness check, the paper examines 35 products that are partially 3D printed and finds positive and significant effects on trade. The results counter widespread views that 3D printing will shorten supply chains and reduce trade.
Export Surges : The Power of a Competitive Currency
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10) Freund, Caroline; Pierola, Martha Denisse
How can countries stimulate and sustain strong export growth? To answer this question, the authors examine 92 episodes of export surges, defined as significant increases in manufacturing export growth that are sustained for at least seven years. They find that export surges in developing countries tend to be preceded by a large real depreciation-which leaves the exchange rate significantly undervalued-and a reduction in exchange rate volatility. In contrast, in developed countries, the role of the exchange rate is less pronounced. The authors examine why the exchange rate is so important in developing countries and find that the depreciation leads to a significant reallocation of resources in the export sector. In particular, depreciation generates more entries into new export products and new markets, and the percentage of new entries that fail after one year declines. These new products and new markets are important, accounting for 25 percent of export growth during the surge in developing countries. The authors argue that maintaining a competitive currency leads firms to expand the product and market space for exports, inducing a large reorientation of the tradable sector.
Does Regionalism Affect Trade Liberalization toward Non-Members?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10) Estevadeordal, Antoni; Freund, Caroline; Ornelas, Emanuel
This paper examines the effect of regionalism on unilateral trade liberalization using industry-level data on applied most-favored nation tariffs and bilateral preferences for ten Latin American countries from 1990 to 2001. The findings show that preferential tariff reduction in a given sector leads to a reduction in the external (most-favored nation) tariff in that sector. External liberalization is greater if preferences are granted to important suppliers. However, these "complementarity effects" of preferential liberalization on external liberalization do not arise in customs unions. Overall, the results suggest that concerns about a negative effect of preferential liberalization on external trade liberalization are unfounded.
Trading on Time
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-05) Djankov, Simeon; Freund, Caroline; Pham, Cong S.
The authors determine how time delays affect international trade using newly collected World Bank data on the days it takes to move standard cargo from the factory gate to the ship in 126 countries. They estimate a modified gravity equation, controlling for endogeneity and remoteness. On average, each additional day that a product is delayed prior to being shipped reduces trade by at least 1 percent. Put differently, each day is equivalent to a country distancing itself from its trade partners by 70 kilometers on average. Delays have an even greater impact on developing country exports and exports of time-sensitive goods, such as perishable agricultural products. In particular, a day's delay reduces a country's relative exports of time-sensitive to time-insensitive agricultural goods by 6 percent.
The Anatomy of China's Export Growth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-05) Amiti, Mary; Freund, Caroline
Decomposing China's real export growth, of over 500 percent since 1992, reveals a number of interesting findings. First, China's export structure changed dramatically, with growing export shares in electronics and machinery and a decline in agriculture and apparel. Second, despite the shift into these more sophisticated products, the skill content of China's manufacturing exports remained unchanged, once processing trade is excluded. Third, export growth was accompanied by increasing specialization and was mainly accounted for by high export growth of existing products (the intensive margin) rather than in new varieties (the extensive margin). Fourth, consistent with an increased world supply of existing varieties, China's export prices to the United States fell by an average of 1.5 percent per year between 1997 and 2005, while export prices of these products from the rest of the world to the United States increased by 0.4 percent annually over the same period.
Trade, Regulations, and Growth
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2004-03) Bolaky, Bineswaree; Freund, Caroline
Trade does not stimulate growth in economies with excessive business and labor regulations. The authors examine the effect of openness on growth using cross-country regressions in both levels and changes. Results from the levels regressions imply that increased openness is associated with a lower standard of living in heavily-regulated economies. Growth regressions confirm that the effect of increased trade on growth is absent in these countries. The authors also find that once they control for the effect of trade on growth in heavily regulated economies, the evidence that trade positively affects growth is stronger than has been found in previous studies. Excessive regulations restrict growth because resources are prevented from moving into the most productive sectors and to the most efficient firms following liberalization. In addition, in highly regulated economies, increased trade is more likely to occur in the wrong goods-that is, goods where comparative advantage does not lie. The results imply that countries must create a sound business environment before trade can be used as an engine of growth.
Exporter Behavior, Country Size and Stage of Development: Evidence from the Exporter Dynamics Database
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10) Fernandes, Ana M.; Freund, Caroline; Pierola, Martha Denisse
This paper presents new data on the micro structure of the export sector for 45 countries and studies how exporter behavior varies with country size and stage of development. Larger countries and more developed countries have more exporters, larger exporters, and a greater share of exports controlled by the top 5 percent. The extensive margin (more firms) plays a greater role than the intensive margin (average size) in supporting exports of larger countries. In contrast, the intensive margin is relatively more important in explaining the exports of richer countries. Exporter entry and exit rates are higher and entrant survival is lower at an early stage of development. The paper discusses the results in light of trade theories with heterogeneous firms and the empirical literature on resource allocation, firm size, and development. An implication from the findings is that developing countries export less because the top of the firm-size distribution is truncated.
Exporter Dynamics Database
(2012-10) Cebeci, Tolga; Fernandes, Ana M.; Freund, Caroline; Pierola, Martha Denisse
This paper introduces the Exporter Dynamics Database. The database includes exporter characteristics and measures of exporter growth based on firm-level customs information from 38 developing and seven developed countries, primarily for the period between 2003 and 2010. The measures are available at different levels of aggregation, including: a) country-year, b) country-year-product, and c) country-year-destination. Several new stylized facts about exporter behavior across countries emerge from the database. (i) Larger or more developed economies have more exporters, larger and more diversified exporters, and lower entry and exit rates than smaller or developing economies. (ii) In the short run, expansions along the intensive margin (exporter size) contribute more to export growth than expansions along the extensive margin (number of exporters). (iii) Exit rates are highly correlated with entry rates and both are negatively correlated with survival rates, average exporter size, and diversification. (iv) The number of exporters and the entry and exit rates in a country-product group are partially driven by country and product-group effects; however, the average size of exporters in a country-product group is not. Although the first three facts can be explained by models incorporating firm heterogeneity and uncertainty, the fourth fact is more difficult to explain with existing models. Several findings are confirmed in this database, including the importance of large multi-product firms. This database can be a valuable tool to improve the understanding of the micro-foundations of export growth, by providing new insights about exporter characteristics and dynamics.
Factory Europe? Brainier but Not Brawnier
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-04) Behar, Alberto; Freund, Caroline
While intermediates comprise the majority of total goods trade in the European Union (EU), their share of total trade has remained flat since 1996. This implies that EU enlargement has had a limited effect on the size of Factory Europe. However, enlargement coincides with an increase in Factory Europe’s complexity. Using two new measures of the complexity of intermediates products, we show that internal EU intermediates trade has become more sophisticated and uses more relationship-specific inputs over time and relative to external EU trade. In other words, Factory Europe has become brainier but not necessarily brawnier. There is also an asymmetry. While the 1995 EU members have not become more significant trading partners for the new members, the new members have become a more important source of intermediates for the EU15 and also a more important market. In sum, the structure of EU trade has changed--not only is the EU15 giving the new members a bigger share of its tasks, it is also giving them harder ones.