Person:
Shrestha, Maheshwor

Last updated:August 20, 2025

Biography

Maheshwor Shrestha is a Senior Economist in the Social Protection & Jobs Africa Team at the World Bank. He has led analytical and operational engagements in various countries in West Africa, South Asia, and East Asia focusing on migration, jobs, entrepreneurship, and safety net support and delivery systems. His research work focuses on migration, labor, education, and health in developing countries. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from MIT and a bachelor’s degree from Dartmouth College.

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Migration: Africa’s Untapped Potential
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-21) Abdel Jelil, Mohamed; Adhikari, Samik; Do, Quy-Toan; Kaila, Heidi; Marzo, Federica; Nsababera, Olive; Seshan, Ganesh; Shrestha, Maheshwor
Migration in Africa is primarily driven by the search for economic opportunity, safety, and security, including from environmental hardships. However, migration’s potential to uplift African livelihoods remains largely untapped. While nearly 15 percent of the world’s migrant population is from Sub-Saharan Africa, two-thirds of Sub-Saharan migrants stay within Africa, and the majority move within regional economic communities. Africa is also home to a quarter of the world’s refugees, primarily hosted in neighboring countries. Africa is now at a pivotal crossroads. With a rapidly growing young population facing economic stagnation, conflict, and climate change, the continent’s workforce is expected to increase by 600 million people by 2050, making up a third of the world’s youth. In contrast, labor forces in high-income and upper-middle-income countries are set to decline by 200 million. This demographic divergence opens a window of opportunity for Africa to enhance its migration management systems. Realizing the potential of migration requires deliberate policies to address challenges and maximize the benefits of migration for both origin and destination countries, as well as for the migrants. Investing in migration systems can better support migrants across the migration cycle, from developing skills in demand domestically, regionally, and globally to ensuring dignity and safety in transit or at their destination. Increasing the number of legal migration pathways is crucial to disincentivize irregular movements and foster safe, orderly migration. Effective migration management also includes promoting integration in host societies and facilitating voluntary returns. This can be achieved through instruments such as bilateral labor migration agreements with destination countries. Entering these agreements as a unified bloc would strengthen individual countries’ bargaining power, improve conditions for migrants, and maximize the economic benefits of migration. Additionally, the empowerment and self-reliance of refugees and internally displaced persons call for increased collaboration among African nations.
Do Bilateral Labor Agreements Increase Migration? Global Evidence from 1960 to 2020
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-12-17) Adhikari, Samik; Cha'ngom, Narcisse; Kaila, Heidi; Shrestha, Maheshwor
This paper estimates the impact of bilateral labor arrangements on migration between two countries. It uses comprehensive data on bilateral migration and bilateral labor agreements across all country pairs for each decade from 1960 to 2020, and employs an empirical specification with a rich set of fixed effects. In the preferred and most stringent specification, the findings show that signing a bilateral labor agreement increases migration from an origin country to a destination country by 76 percent (0.57 log points) in the decade of signing. The effect persists for up to three decades. The impacts are higher for corridors without a pre-existing regular flow and for destinations in the Gulf Cooperation Council. In contrast, the effect is virtually absent for origin countries in Africa, driven by countries with weak government effectiveness. The estimates imply that bilateral labor agreements can lead to substantial welfare gains: low- and lower-middle-income countries can earn an additional US$120 million annually from a bilateral labor agreement. If countries in Sub-Saharan Africa were to experience similar impacts, the welfare gain from a single BLA could be as high as US$51 million per year for these origin countries.
A Deeper Dive into the Relationship between Economic Development and Migration
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-02) Shrestha, Maheshwor
This descriptive paper provides a nuanced perspective on the relationship between development and migration, extending the non-parametric analysis in Clemens (2020). A few stylized patterns of migration emerge as countries develop. First, the migration response to development differs by the types of origin and destination countries. As low-income countries develop, their migration to high-income destinations increases slowly but steadily, whereas migration to other low-income or neighboring countries decreases at early levels of development. As middle-income countries develop, their migration to high-income countries increases steadily and plateaus once they reach sufficiently high levels of income. Second, the composition of migrants changes as countries develop. In particular, migrants to high-income destination countries become more educated. Third, the emigration response from middle-income countries is muted for countries with larger populations, particularly toward high-income destinations. These patterns suggest a strong role multiple transformations—such as increasing incomes, increased global integration, a demographic transition, increased human capital, and domestic structural change—play in changing migration patterns as countries develop. The paper explores these migration patterns in light of these transformations.
Potential Responses to the COVID-19 Outbreak in Support of Migrant Workers
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04-21) Shrestha, Maheshwor; Moroz, Harry; Testaverde, Mauro
The note describes the key challenges facing the health, livelihoods, and mobility of internal and international migrants and their families due to the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak. The note presents the policy options available to governments to address these challenges and describes the assistance that the World Bank can offer in areas related to social protection and jobs to support these efforts. The living and working conditions of internal and international migrants make them vulnerable to contracting COVID-19 (Coronavirus). Measures put in place to control disease transmission both within and across countries have resulted in significant disruption in transportation networks and in labor markets that have hit migrant workers hard. The resulting decline in remittances will transmit these negative impacts to the families of migrants. Travel restrictions may lead to labor shortages in critical sectors like agriculture that are dominated by migrant workers. While the specific type of support that should be targeted to migrants depends on location, legal status, and type of migration, most migrants will need access to safety nets in the form of cash or in-kind assistance to support them as they comply with transmission control measures and cope with the impacts of the crisis. Policies to support employment retention and promotion will be particularly important as a complement to these safety nets for internal migrants and migrants returning from abroad. Policies to offset the expected declines in remittances will be important for all migrants and their families. Programs created to respond to the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) outbreak should be migrant-sensitive to take into account the unique challenges facing migrants.
Get Rich or Die Tryin’: Perceived Earnings, Perceived Mortality Rates, and Migration Decisions of Potential Work Migrants from Nepal
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2020-02) Shrestha, Maheshwor
This article reports on a randomized field experiment in which potential work migrants from Nepal to Malaysia and the Persian Gulf countries are provided with information on wages and mortality incidences at their intended destinations. It is found that, particularly for the group of potential migrants without prior foreign migration experience, the information changes their expectations of earnings and mortality risks abroad, which further changes their actual migration decisions. Using the exogenous variation in expectations, it is estimated that the elasticity of migration with respect to mortality rate expectation is 0.8, and the elasticity of migration with respect to earnings expectation is 1.1.
Returns to Low-Skilled International Migration: Evidence from the Bangladesh-Malaysia Migration Lottery Program
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-02) Mobarak, Mushfiq; Sharif, Iffath; Shrestha, Maheshwor
Many economists believe that the returns to migration are high. However, credible experimental estimates of the benefits of migration are rare, particularly for low-skilled international migrants and their families. This paper studies a natural experiment in Bangladesh, where low-skilled male migrant workers to Malaysia were selected via a large-scale lottery program. This study tracked the households of lottery applicants and surveyed 3,512 lottery winners and losers. Five years after the lottery, 76 percent of the winners had migrated internationally compared with only 19 percent of the lottery losers. Using the lottery outcome as an instrument, the paper finds that the government intermediated migration increased the incomes of migrants by over 200 percent and their household per capita consumption by 22 percent. Furthermore, low-skilled international migration leads to large improvements in a wide array of household socioeconomic outcomes, including female involvement in key household decisions. Such large gains arise, at least in part, due to lower costs of government intermediation.
The Impact of Minimum Wage Hikes on Employment and Wages in Cambodia
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-05) Shrestha, Maheshwor
Using an event-study framework, this paper examines the impact of four minimum wage hikes between 2008 and 2015 on the Cambodian labor market. The analysis finds that, except for immediate adjustments around the time of the hikes, the minimum wage hikes did not affect participation rates in the affected sector -- garments and footwear -- or the unaffected sectors. However, the minimum wage hikes increased wages modestly (3 percent) for workers in the affected sectors and modestly decreased wages (1.5 percent) for workers in the unaffected sectors. The gains for the affected sectors are slightly larger at higher quantiles than at lower quantiles. This is suggestive of a change in compensation structure within the affected firms as a result of the hikes.
The Impact of Large-Scale Migration on Poverty, Expenditures, and Labor Market Outcomes in Nepal
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-10) Shrestha, Maheshwor
This paper studies the impact of migration on poverty, expenditures, and labor market outcomes in Nepal. Between 2001 and 2011, the share of male working age population abroad more than doubled, mostly due to young men leaving to work in Malaysia and the Persian Gulf countries. The paper studies the impact using instrumental variables as well as difference-in-difference methods. The findings show that increases in migration to Gulf-Malaysia explain 40 percent of the decline in poverty between 2001 and 2011. The estimates of the marginal propensity of consumption show that a $1 increase in remittance income increases consumption by $0.5, with the largest share going to expenditures on food. The paper also finds that migration increases school enrollment of children, particularly of girls. Furthermore, the findings show that large-scale migration in villages improves labor market outcomes for households without a migrant. An increase in village migration rates of 10 percentage points increases wages by 25 percent, and labor force participation by 4 percentage points. The participation effects are driven by increases in female participation in non-farm sectors, and increased male participation in agriculture. The wage effects are driven by higher agricultural wages for all, and higher non-farm wages for females.
Push and Pull: A Study of International Migration from Nepal
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-02) Shrestha, Maheshwor
This paper studies migration choices in the presence of liquidity constraints and varying costs of migration. This paper presents a simple theoretical framework that analyzes migration response to both push and pull factors in such settings. This framework implies that a shock to the push factors in the origin leads to differential observed response to migration to various destinations, as the shocks affect different parts of the wealth distribution. The implications of this framework are tested in the context of international migration from Nepal, using a panel of 452 villages observed at three periods in the 2000s. The analysis uses rainfall shocks and deaths due to conflict as "push" shocks and growth in manufacturing and construction in destination countries as "pull" shocks. The findings show that a rainfall shock that increases household income by US$ 100 increases migration to India by 54 percent but has no effect on migration elsewhere. An increase in conflict, which reduces consumption and amenity of the wealthier more, increases migration abroad, especially from urban areas. An increase in demand from the destination countries, especially the Gulf countries and Malaysia, has strong effects on migration to those destinations. These findings are consistent with the theoretical framework, and suggest the presence of large liquidity constraints. An increase in income can boost migration to India, whereas a reduction in the cost of migration might increase profitable migration elsewhere. The responsiveness to "pull" shocks suggests that households are willing to take advantage of these opportunities.
Get Rich or Die Tryin': Perceived Earnings, Perceived Mortality Rate and the Value of a Statistical Life of Potential Work-Migrants from Nepal
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-01) Shrestha, Maheshwor
Do potential migrants have accurate information about the risks and returns of migrating abroad? And, given the information they have, what is their revealed willingness to trade risks for higher earnings? To answer these questions, this paper sets up and analyzes a randomized field experiment among 3,319 potential work migrants from Nepal to Malaysia and the Persian Gulf countries. The experiment provides them with information on wages and mortality incidences in their choice destination, and tracks their migration decision three months later. The findings show that potential migrants severely overestimate their mortality rate abroad, and that information on mortality incidences lowers this expectation. Potential migrants without prior foreign migration experience also overestimate their earnings potential abroad, and information on earnings lowers this expectation. Using exogenous variation in expectations for the inexperienced potential migrants generated by the experiment, the study estimates migration elasticities of 0.7 in expected earnings and 0.5 in expected mortality. The experiment allows the calculation of the trade-off the inexperienced potential migrants make between earnings and mortality risk, and hence their value of a statistical life. The estimates range from US$0.28 million to US$0.54 million, which is a reasonable range for a poor population.