Person:
Mottaghi, Lili

Office of the Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa

Fields of Specialization

Macroeconomics, Economic growth, Trade policy

ORCID

0000-0001-9161-2499

External Links

Blog

Departments

Office of the Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa

Last updated: January 31, 2023

Biography

Lili Mottaghi is a Senior Economist in the office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank. She leads the work on regional macroeconomic outlook and has developed two semi-annual flagship publications MENA Economic Monitor and MENA Quarterly Economic Brief which presents the World Bank Group’s views on regional economic developments and prospects, growth forecast, and policy challenges. She also leads the impact evaluation research in the newly established MNA Gender Research Hub at the World Bank. Ms. Mottaghi is the author and co-author of numerous publications including articles published in international journals and World Bank reports. Her research covers a wide range of topics in macroeconomics and development including inclusive growth, technology, and the digital economy, commodity market forecast, inequality, forced displacement, and conflict. Before joining the Bank, she worked at the Management and Planning Organization in Iran where she held senior positions in the areas of economic growth, development, and macroeconomic modeling. Ms. Mottaghi received her Master and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from Claremont Graduate University and University of Tehran.

Full item page

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 34

Trading Together: Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-COVID Era
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-10-19) Arezki, Rabah; Moreno-Dodson, Blanca; Yuting Fan, Rachel; Gansey, Romeo; Nguyen, Ha; Cong Nguyen, Minh; Mottaghi, Lili; Tsakas, Constantin; Wood, Christina
The MENA Economic Update is a product of the World Bank's Office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa. This presents the short-term, macroeconomic outlook and economic challenges facing countries in the region.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, April 2017: The Economics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction in MENA
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-04-17) Devarajan, Shantayanan; Mottaghi, Lili
Plagued by war, violence and low oil prices, economic activity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remained subdued between 2013 and 2015, but the situation is expected to improve and growth to surge above 3 percent over the forecast period. Though still below potential, the improvement in growth offers hope. We see signs of "green shoots" in some countries in the region, therefore we have upgraded our short-term prospects for MENA from "cautiously pessimistic" to "cautiously optimistic" over the forecast period. The prospects of peace in Syria, Yemen and Libya are one of the keys to resuming growth over the next decade. But realizing that potential depends crucially on how the post-conflict reconstruction is conducted. On the one hand, a well-managed process could help these war-tom countries rebuild their shattered economies and re-integrate their people so that the region as a whole, and possibly the rest of the world, benefits. On the other hand, a badly managed process can risk a recurrence of conflict, continued stagnation and suffering, and perpetual fragility. The economics of postconflict reconstruction, therefore, is critical to the future of MENA's economies.
MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2016: The Economic Effects of War and Peace
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-02-03) Devarajan, Shantayanan; Mottaghi, Lili
This report estimates economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to fall short of expectations, at 2.6 percent in 2015, below the 2.8 percent predicted in October. Being constrained by war, terrorism and to some extent cheap oil, short term growth prospects in MENA remain “cautiously pessimistic.” Not only have the civil wars caused untold damage to human and physical capital, in Yemen the number of poor people has almost doubled after the war, but they have created one of the biggest forced displacement crises since World War II. The report examines the different ways in which civil wars are affecting the economies of the region, including the important channel of forced displacement. We also explore how economic fortunes will turn around if there is peace. A peace settlement in the war-torn Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen could lead to a swift rebound in oil output and exports, allowing them to increase fiscal space, improve current account balances and boost economic growth in the medium term with positive spillovers to the neighboring countries.
MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2016: Whither Oil Prices?
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-07-28) Devarajan, Shantayanan; Mottaghi, Lili
This issue of the World Bank MENA Quarterly Economic Brief seeks to understand the factors behind the new normal of the oil market to discern the evolution of world oil prices in the future, and their implications for the economies of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Our findings show that the oil price crash of 2014 was preceded by a significant increase in the size and frequency of volatility of oil prices. This volatility in turn contributed to the accumulation of oil inventories, attributing to the decline in oil prices. Noting that, historically, oil price slumps have lasted longer than spikes, we suggest that the current situation in the oil market may persist because of the changing behavior of market players, and the fact that overall oil demand is weak and not expected to rebound anytime soon. We expect the world oil market to work through its current oversupply and rebalance in early 2020 at market-clearing prices that are close to the marginal cost of the last producer (US shale oil producers). Oil prices are likely to be in the range of $53 - $60 a barrel and stay there for several years. The new normal for oil prices will prove difficult for MENA oil producers and could end up overhauling the existing social contract.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2018: A New Economy for Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-10) Arezki, Rabah; Mottaghi, Lili; Barone, Andrea; Fan, Rachel Yuting; Harb, Amani Abou; Karasapan, Omer M.; Matsunaga, Hideki; Nguyen, Ha; de Soyres, Francois
Growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is projected to rebound to an average of 2% in 2018, up from an average 1.4% in 2017. The modest rebound in growth is driven mostly by the recent rise in oil prices, which has benefitted the region’s oil exporters while putting pressure on the budgets of oil importers. The rebound also reflects the impact of modest reforms and stabilization efforts undertaken in some countries in the region. The report forecasts that regional growth will continue to improve modestly, to an average of 2.8% by the end of 2020 while there is the ongoing risk that instability in the region could worsen and dampen growth. Despite recovery, the slow pace of growth will not generate enough jobs for the region’s large youth population. New drivers of growth are needed to reach the level of job creation required. The report offers a roadmap for unlocking the enormous potential of the region’s large and well-educated youth population by embracing the new digital economy. Broader and bolder reforms will be needed to achieve this goal, along with critical investments in digital infrastructure. It will require the reorientation of education systems toward science and technology, the creation of modern telecommunications and payments systems, and a private-sector driven economy governed by regulations that encourage rather than stifle innovation.
Child Care Subsidies, Employment Services and Women's Labor Market Outcomes in Egypt: First Midline Results
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-07) Caria, Stefano; Crepon, Bruno; ElBehairy, Hala; Fadlalmawla, Noha; Krafft, Caroline; Nagy, Abdelrahman; Mottaghi, Lili; Zeitoun, Nahla; El Assiouty, Souraya
This paper contributes to the existing literature in several important ways. The existing literature on the impact of childcare subsidies is from contexts with relatively higher rates of female labor force participation. This work is thus an important test of whether alleviating care responsibilities and reducing the opportunity cost of women working through childcare subsidies can increase women’s participation in contexts and populations with lower participation. Likewise, although there is a sizable body of literature on employment services interventions, there is less evidence on whether they can help married women with young children. Lastly, recognizing that women in Egypt face a multitude of employment constraints, our experiment tests whether a combination of employment services and childcare subsidies has important complementarities, by alleviating multiple constraints at the same time. This paper examines the impact of the interventions on job search outcomes for women 3-4 months after the baseline survey and assignment to treatment for approximately half the planned sample. The first midline survey examines specifically job search behaviors: reservation wages, reservation job quality, and job search effort. The authors also discuss take-up of the two interventions and contextualize take-up and outcomes with information on norms about women’s work and childcare.
MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, July 2015: Economic Implications of Lifting Sanctions on Iran
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-07) Devarajan, Shanta; Mottaghi, Lili
Iran and the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council and Germany (P5+1) reached a deal on July 14, 2015 that limits Iranian nuclear activity in return for lifting all international sanctions that were placed on Iran (Box 1). This issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief (QEB) traces the economic effects of this development—removing sanctions on Iran—on the world oil market, on Iran’s trading partners, and on the Iranian economy.
Middle East and North Africa Economic Monitor, October 2016: Economic and Social Inclusion to Prevent Violent Extremism
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-10-05) Do, Quy-Toan; Devarajan, Shantayanan; Brockmeyer, Anne; Mottaghi, Lili; Joubert, Clement; Bhatia, Kartika; Abdel-Jelil, Mohamed
The year 2016 appears to be one of the toughest for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as their governments face serious policy challenges. The biggest challenge for oil exporters is managing their finances and diversification strategies with oil below $45 a barrel. Fiscal consolidation in a difficult sociopolitical environment and spillovers from conflicts are creating challenges for oil importers as well. Real GOP growth in MENA for 2016 is projected to fall to its lowest level since 2013 -- 2.3 percent -- lower than last year's growth by half a percentage point and about one percentage point lower than predicted in April 2016. It is clear that the disappointing performance of the MENA economies, and possibly the global economy, is partly due to the rise of terrorist attacks and spread of violent extremism. In this report, we attempt to shed light on the underlying causes of this phenomenon by applying an economic perspective to the demand for and supply of violent extremists. Looking at a dataset on foreign fighters joining Daesh, we find that the factors most strongly associated with foreign individuals' joining Daesh have to do with a lack of inclusion -- economic, social and religious -- in their country of origin. Promoting greater inclusion, therefore, could not only bring down the level of violent extremism, but it could improve economic performance in the MENA region.
MENA’s Forced Displacement Crisis
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-03) Mottaghi, Lili
The latest MENA Quarterly Economic Brief estimates growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region to fall short of expectation at 2.6 percent in 2015, about 0.2 percentage points below the October 2015 forecast. The World Bank expects the economic outlook to remain “cautiously pessimistic” in the short term. The recent poor performance of several MENA economies, and their dim prospects for the future, are partly driven by the civil wars that have created death, destruction and significant growth shortfalls in both conflict countries; Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya and their neighbors. This Quick Note summarizes the findings of the report including the important channel of forced displacement, which has become a crisis.Overall, millions of Syrians, Iraqis, Yemenis and Libyans have been forced to flee their homes or displaced with in the country. They are in need of urgent humanitarian and financial assistance. According to the United Nations (U.N.) for Syria only, it will take US 7.7 billion dollars to meet the urgent needs of the most vulnerable people in 2016.
Evidence to Inform Policy: What Works to Close the Gender Gaps in Middle East and North Africa
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05) Mottaghi, Lili; Krafft, Caroline; Caria, Stefano; Nagy , Abdelrahman; Fadl, Noha
The traditional unequal division of household chores and caregiving hinder women from entering the labor market. Women in Egypt spend 9.5 hours more on unpaid household chores for every hour spent by men. Forty percent of women reported spending more time on household chores during the COVID–19 pandemic. Lack of access to affordable childcare is a constraint on the female labor supply in Egypt. Almost 96 percent of women in the pilot study expressed interest in childcare centers, but high costs are a concern. Weak demand for female workers, especially in the STEM fields, limits women’s job opportunities. About 60 percent of employers reported that they prefer to hire men due to women’s household responsibilities. About 87 percent of respondents noted approval with women working. However, the support declined steadily as additional information about the nature of the job or working hours was specified. One-third of women said that their husbands would not allow them to work outside of the house, and none of the men agreed with women working in a mixed-gendered environment, highlighting restrictive gender norms’ impact on female labor supply. These findings underscore the importance of our two randomized interventions designed to provide low-cost childcare services and signal firms to hire women through our employment services.