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Mottaghi, Lili
Office of the Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa
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Macroeconomics,
Economic growth,
Trade policy
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Office of the Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa
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January 31, 2023
Biography
Lili Mottaghi is a Senior Economist in the office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa Region of the World Bank. She leads the work on regional macroeconomic outlook and has developed two semi-annual flagship publications MENA Economic Monitor and MENA Quarterly Economic Brief which presents the World Bank Group’s views on regional economic developments and prospects, growth forecast, and policy challenges. She also leads the impact evaluation research in the newly established MNA Gender Research Hub at the World Bank. Ms. Mottaghi is the author and co-author of numerous publications including articles published in international journals and World Bank reports. Her research covers a wide range of topics in macroeconomics and development including inclusive growth, technology, and the digital economy, commodity market forecast, inequality, forced displacement, and conflict. Before joining the Bank, she worked at the Management and Planning Organization in Iran where she held senior positions in the areas of economic growth, development, and macroeconomic modeling. Ms. Mottaghi received her Master and Ph.D. degrees in Economics from Claremont Graduate University and University of Tehran.
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Publication
Middle East and North Africa Data Book, September 2014
(Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2014-09) Devarajan, Shanta ; Mottaghi, LiliThe Middle East and North Africa (MENA) data book serves as a quick reference and a reliable dataset for monitoring economic and social developments in the region. The data are drawn from the 2014 World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) and International Monetary Fund's (IMF's) direction of trade statistics. It contains macroeconomic, sectoral, and social indicators for 19 countries in the MENA region and aggregates for other developing regions. The data book presents following topics: basic indicators; national and fiscal accounts; trade; infrastructure; and human development. -
Publication
Middle East and North Africa Region Little Data Book, September 2012
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-09) Mottaghi, LiliThe data in this book are for 2009 -2011 or the most recent years available, unless otherwise noted in the table or the glossary. This data book presents regional tables which is based on the World Bank's analytical regions and may differ from common geographic usage. -
Publication
Middle East and North Africa Region Little Data Book, April 2012
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04) Mottaghi, LiliThe data in this book are based on World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) 2011. The data are for 2009 and 2010 or the most recent year unless otherwise noted. Glossary contains definitions of the terms used in the tables. -
Publication
The Middle East and North Africa : A Year in Transition
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-12) Freund, Caroline ; Ianchovichina, Elena ; Wood, Christina ; Mottaghi, LiliThis note is based on report entitled Looking Ahead after a Year in Transition that was issued by the Chief Economist s office of the Middle East and North Africa region of the World Bank. Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, and Yemen are given special attention because each of them experienced a revolution and a major political change in 2011 and is undergoing a process of political transition toward democracy. In each of the four focus countries, the transition authorities have been charged with implementing agreed time-bound actions leading to democratic elections for new constitutions, presidents and /or parliamentary bodies. Tunisia s new elections are expected to be held no later than June 30, 2013. Egypt lacks a full constitution and parliament, and the transition framework remains uncertain, having been reshaped multiple times by a series of constitutional declarations, laws, decrees, legal challenges and court rulings. Libya barring major disruptions appears to be on track to adopt its new constitution in 2013. In Yemen the new government led by President Hadi is overseeing a two year transition period that is to end with elections. -
Publication
Harnessing the Global Recovery : A Tough Road Ahead
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-04) Mottaghi, LiliCompared with the past three years, 2014 seems hopeful and 2015 can be a turning point for Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. After a slowdown in 2013, recovery in high income economies is expected to boost global growth to 3.2 percent in 2014, an increase of 0.8 percent from 2013. Global output is to improve further in 2015 with real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.4 percent. In addition to growth expansion in the United States, the United Kingdom, as well modest recovery in the Euro zone countries, global growth will continue to be driven by growth in developing countries, expected to be between 5.3 to 5.5 percent in 2014 and 2015 respectively, led by China and India. Higher global demand is expected to boost MENA energy and manufactured exports in countries that have trade linkages with high-income countries. MENA countries share many structural problems that have prevented economies from moving to a higher, sustainable growth path. Fiscal spending in almost all MENA countries is dominated by a large civil-service wage bill and general subsidies. The global recovery remains fragile and downside risks, including continued low inflation in high-income economies, can weaken demand and delay economic recovery. -
Publication
MENA Quarterly Economic Brief, January 2015 : Plunging Oil Prices
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2015-01) Devarajan, Shanta ; Mottaghi, LiliThis issue of the MENA Quarterly Economic Brief focuses on the implications of low oil prices for eight developing countries, or the MENA-8 (oil importers: Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon and Jordan and oil exporters: Iran, Iraq, Yemen and Libya) and the economies of the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council), who play a major role in providing funds in the form of aid, investment, tourism revenues and remittances to the rest of the countries of the region. We make the following assumptions about the future price of oil: (i) The price will average $65 Brent p/b in 2015; (ii) a higher price $78 Brent p/b will be used for comparison analysis. As with other economic variables, there is uncertainty associated with the future price of oil, which adds to the error involved in projections. The data for 2015 2017 in the figures and tables are projections. These projections are based on statistical information available through early January 2015. -
Publication
Recent Economic Developments and Prospects
( 2015-04) Mottaghi, LiliThe global economy will grow 3 to 3.5 percent this year, 0.5 percent higher than last year s 2.6 percent, and surpassing the average growth rate of 3.1 percent during 2000-08, before the financial crisis. The magnitude of the gains will depend on, among other factors, the share of oil imports in gross domestic product (GDP). Oil exporters (including Russia) can see a sharp fall in growth deteriorating fiscal balances with significant regional consequences. Low oil prices have significantly affected the economies of the oil exporters - accounting for 2-3 of the countries in the region. Economic growth in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is expected to continue on the same path in 2016. If the security situation in Libya improves and oil exports increase, the regional average can surge to 4 percent to 5 percent in 2016. -
Publication
Trading Together: Reviving Middle East and North Africa Regional Integration in the Post-COVID Era
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020-10-19) Arezki, Rabah ; Moreno-Dodson, Blanca ; Yuting Fan, Rachel ; Gansey, Romeo ; Nguyen, Ha ; Cong Nguyen, Minh ; Mottaghi, Lili ; Tsakas, Constantin ; Wood, ChristinaThe MENA Economic Update is a product of the World Bank's Office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East and North Africa. This presents the short-term, macroeconomic outlook and economic challenges facing countries in the region. -
Publication
MENA Economies Hit by Conflicts, Civil Wars, and Lower Oil Prices
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10) Mottaghi, LiliAgainst the backdrop of a slowing global economy and lower commodity prices, economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is stagnating. The World Bank 2015 MENA economic monitor report projects overall gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be less than 3 percent for the third year running - about 2.8 percent for 2015. Low oil prices, conflicts, and the global economic slowdown make short-term prospects of recovery unlikely. In a positive scenario of decreasing tensions in Libya, Iraq, and Syria, together with recovery in the Euro area that can boost external demand, growth in the region can rebound to 4.4 percent in 2016 and the following year. However, if current circumstances persist, overall growth is not expected to recover any time soon. Since the 2011 Arab spring, though not necessarily because of it, the MENA region has seen a slowdown in economic growth, an escalation of violence and civil war and, more recently, substantial macroeconomic imbalances from lower oil prices. -
Publication
How Do People in MENA Evaluate their Economic Prospects?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-04) Mottaghi, LiliIn the global environment with the risk of prolonged low growth, the short-term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remains “cautiously "pessimistic”, according to the World Bank’s latest MENA Economic Monitor. Growth in theregion is expected to average about 3 percent i