Person:
Joseph, George
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Impact evaluation,
Applied microeconomics
Degrees
Departments
Global Practice on Water, The World Bank
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated
June 26, 2023
Biography
George Joseph is a Senior Economist with the Water Global Practice of the World Bank, Washington, DC. His research interests are centered on development economics and behavioral and applied microeconomics. He received his PhD in economics from Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey, and an MA in economics from Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India
Publication Search Results
1 - 10 of 11
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Publication
Assessing the Potential Impact on Poverty of Rising Cereals Prices : The Case of Mali
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10)Concerns have been raised about the impact of rising food prices worldwide on the poor. To assess the (short term) impact of rising food prices in any particular country it is necessary to look at both the impact on food producers (who benefit from an increase in prices) and food consumers (who loose out when the price increases), with a focus on poor producers and consumers. In Mali the impact of a change in the price of rice is not ambiguous because about half of the rice consumed in the country is imported, so that the negative impact for consumers is much larger than the positive impact for producers. By contrast, for millet and sorghum, as well as corn, the impact is more ambiguous since much of the consumption is locally produced. Using a recent and comprehensive household survey, this paper provides an assessment of the potential impact of higher food prices on the poor in Mali using both simple statistical analysis and non-parametric methods. The paper finds that rising food prices for rice, millet and sorghum, corn, as well as wheat and bread could together lead to a substantial increase in poverty, with the increase in the price of rice having by far the largest negative impact. -
Publication
Potential Impact of Higher Food Prices on Poverty : Summary Estimates for a Dozen West and Central African Countries
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-10)Concerns have been raised about the impact of rising food prices worldwide on the poor. To assess the impact of rising food prices in any particular country it is necessary to look at both the impact on food producers who are poor or near-poor and could benefit from an increase in prices and food consumers who are poor or near-poor and would loose out when the price increases. In most West and Central African countries, the sign (positive or negative) of the impact is not ambiguous because a substantial share of food consumption is imported, so that the negative impact for consumers is larger than the positive impact for net sellers of locally produced foods. Yet even if the sign of the impact is clear, its magnitude is not. Using a set of recent and comprehensive household surveys, this paper summarizes findings from an assessment of the potential impact of higher food prices on the poor in a dozen countries. Rising food prices for rice, wheat, maize, and other cereals as well as for milk, sugar and vegetable oils could lead to a substantial increase in poverty in many of the countries. At the same time, the data suggest that the magnitude of the increase in poverty between different countries is likely to be different. Finally, the data suggest that a large share of the increase in poverty will consist of deeper levels of poverty among households who are already poor, even if there will also be a larger number of poor households in the various countries. -
Publication
Climate Change and Migration : Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-07-15)Climate change is a major source of concern in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and migration is often understood as one of several strategies used by households to respond to changes in climate and environmental conditions, including extreme weather events. This study focuses on the link between climate change and migration. Most micro-level studies measure climate change either by the incidences of extreme weather events or by variation in temperature or rainfall. A few studies have found that formal and informal institutions as well as policies also affect migration. Institutions that make government more responsive to households (for example through public spending) discourage both international and domestic migration in the aftermath of extreme weather events. Migration is often an option of last resort after vulnerable rural populations attempting to cope with new and challenging circumstances have exhausted other options such as eating less, selling assets, or removing children from school. This study is based in large part on new data collected in 2011 in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and the Republic of Yemen. The surveys were administered by in-country partners to a randomly selected set of 800 households per country. It is also important to emphasize that neither the household survey results nor the findings from the qualitative focus groups are meant to be representative of the five countries in which the work was carried, since only a few areas were surveyed in each country. This report is organized as follows: section one gives synthesis. Section two discusses household perceptions about climate change and extreme weather events. Section three focuses on migration as a coping mechanisms and income diversification strategy. Section four examines other coping and adaptation strategies. Section five discusses perceptions about government and community programs. -
Publication
A Multiple-Arm, Cluster-Randomized Impact Evaluation of the Clean India (Swachh Bharat) Mission Program in Rural Punjab, India
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05)This study reports the findings of a large-scale, multiple-arm, cluster-randomized control study carried out in rural Punjab, India, to assess the impact of a flagship sanitation program of the Government of India. The program, the Clean India Mission for Villages, was implemented between October 2014 and October 2019 and aimed to encourage the construction of toilets, eliminate the practice of open defecation, and improve the awareness and practice of good hygiene across rural India. It utilized a combination of behavioral change campaigns, centered on the community-led total sanitation approach, and financial incentives for eligible households. The study also evaluates the incremental effects of intensive hygiene awareness campaigns in selected schools and follow-up initiatives in selected communities. The study finds that the coverage of “safely managed” toilets among households without toilets increased by 6.8–10.4 percentage points across various intervention arms, compared with a control group. Open defecation was reduced by 7.3–7.8 percentage points. The program also had significant positive impacts on hygiene awareness among adults and children, although the interventions of school campaigns and intensive follow-up were of limited additional impact. -
Publication
Impact of Salinity on Infant and Neonatal Mortality in Bangladesh
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-11)In this paper, the impact of salinity on maternal and child health in Bangladesh is analyzed using data from the Bangladesh Demographic Health Surveys. A U-shaped association between drinking water salinity and infant and neonatal mortality is found, suggesting higher mortality when salinity is very low or high. With fresh drinking water, the marginal effect of salinity measured by groundwater electricity conductivity on infant death is always negative. With brackish drinking water and slightly saline water, the negative effect is small. As drinking water becomes moderately saline, the predicted probability of infant death starts to increase, and the marginal effect becomes and remains positive. The relationship between drinking water salinity and neonatal death shows a similar pattern. Finally, freshwater with very low concentration of healthy minerals and severely saline water with very high detrimental sodium can be harmful for infant and neonatal health during pregnancy. Severe salinity needs to be addressed if the recent gains in infant and neonatal mortality are to be sustained, especially in the coastal areas of Bangladesh. -
Publication
Children Need Clean Water to Grow: E. Coli Contamination of Drinking Water and Childhood Nutrition in Bangladesh
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-11)Water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions are increasingly recognized as essential for improving nutritional outcomes in children. Emerging literature describes the negative effects of poor sanitation on child growth. However, limited evidence has shown a link between water quality and nutritional outcomes. Similar to poor sanitation, it is plausible that water contaminated with E. coli could affect the nutritional status of children through various possible biological pathways, such as repeated episodes of diarrhea, environmental enteropathy, parasites, or other mechanisms that inhibit nutrient uptake and absorption. This study explores the relationship between contaminated water and stunting prevalence among children younger than age five years, using unique cross-sectional data from the 2012–13 Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey, which was one of the first nationally representative surveys to include water quality testing for E. coli. E. coli contamination in drinking water is measured at household and source points. Stunting is measured using height-for-age z-scores for children under five, where a child is considered stunted when he or she is two or more standard deviations below the median of the World Health Organization reference population. The results of multiple probit regression models indicate a 6 percent increase in the prevalence of stunting in children who are exposed to highly contaminated drinking water at household point compared with those exposed to low-to-medium contamination. When contamination is measured at the source level, the association is greater, with a 9 percent increase in the likelihood of stunting when exposed to a high level of contamination. -
Publication
Remittances and Natural Disasters : Ex-post Response and Contribution to Ex-ante Preparedness
( 2009-06-01)Macro- and micro-economic evidence suggests a positive role of remittances in preparing households against natural disasters and in coping with the loss afterwards. Analysis of cross-country macroeconomic data shows that remittances increase in the aftermath of natural disasters in countries that have a larger number of migrants abroad. Analysis of household survey data in Bangladesh shows that per capita consumption was higher in remittance-receiving households than in others after the 1998 flood. Ethiopian households that receive international remittances seem to rely more on cash reserves and less on selling household assets or livestock to cope with drought. In Burkina Faso and Ghana, international remittance-receiving households, especially those receiving remittances from high-income developed countries, tend to have housing built of concrete rather than mud and greater access to communication equipment, suggesting that they are better prepared against natural disasters. -
Publication
Cholera Risk in Lusaka: A Geospatial Analysis to Inform Improved Water and Sanitation Provision
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-06-26)Urbanization combined with climate change are exacerbating water scarcity for an increasing number of the world’s emerging cities. Water and sanitation infrastructure, which in the first place was largely built to cater only to a small subsector of developing city populations during colonial times, are increasingly coming under excessive strain. In the rapidly growing cities of the developing world, expansion does not always keep pace with population demand, leading to waterborne diseases, such as cholera (Vibrio cholerae) and typhoid (Salmonella serotype Typhi). Funding gaps therefore make targeting for efficient spending on infrastructure upgrades essential for reducing the burden of disease. This paper applies geospatial analysis in Lusaka, Zambia, in the context of the cholera outbreak of October 2017 to May 2018, to identify different water and sanitation infrastructure investment scenarios and their relative impact on reducing the risk of cholera in the city. The analysis presented uses cholera case location data and geospatial covariates, including the location of and access to networked and non-networked Water and sanitation infrastructure, groundwater vulnerability, and drainage, to generate a high-resolution map of cholera risk across the city. The analysis presents scenarios of standalone or combined investments across sewerage coverage and maintenance, on-site sanitation improvements, piped water network coverage and quality, and ensuring the safety of point source water. It identifies the investment most strongly correlated with the largest reduction in cholera risk as the provision of flush to sewer infrastructure citywide. However, it also considers the trade-offs in terms of financial cost versus health benefits and takes note of where the next highest health benefits could be achieved for a much lower cost. Finally, the analysis was done in the context of a considered restructuring of an existing World Bank investment, the Lusaka Sanitation Program. It identifies what appears to be the most efficient combined initiative as partial sanitation investment scale-up and investment in piped water in 10 priority wards where the cholera risk was highest. -
Publication
Understanding the Geographical Distribution of Stunting in Tanzania: A Geospatial Analysis of the 2015-16 Demographic and Health Survey
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-01)Tanzania is home to the third highest population of stunted children in Sub-Saharan Africa, with about 2.7 million children under the age of five failing to reach their full potential of growth attainment compared with the reference population as per the World Health Organization standards. Several studies have shown that stunted growth during childhood entraps the future of children in a vicious circle of recurrent diseases, reduced human development, and lower earnings, thus increasing their likelihood of being poor when they grow up. To reduce stunting, the Government of Tanzania and development partners are introducing a convergence of multisectoral interventions adapted to local needs. However, the existing stunting data are representative only at higher administrative levels, thus making it difficult to implement these efforts. The paper uses the 2016 geo-referenced Demographic and Health Survey in conjunction with relevant spatially gridded covariate data, such as nighttime lights, water and sanitation access, vegetation index, travel time, and so on. Geospatial techniques, such as model-based statistics and Bayesian inference implemented using the INLA algorithm, along with appropriate model validation exercises are employed to develop high-resolution maps of stunting in Tanzania at 1×1-kilometer spatial resolution. The maps show that areas of consistently high stunting rates tend to be more common in rural parts of the country, especially throughout the western and southwestern border areas. There is high prevalence of low stunting in the urban areas around Dar es Salaam, Arusha, and Dodoma, as well as in the south of Lake Victoria. -
Publication
Does Arsenic-Contaminated Drinking Water Limit Early Childhood Development in Bangladesh?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-08)Arsenic contamination in shallow groundwater aquifers remains a major barrier to providing access to safe drinking water in Bangladesh. Chronic exposure to arsenic has been shown to cause serious health impacts, including various cancers, skin lesions, neurological damage, heart disease, and hypertension. Numerous epidemiological studies have shown cognitive impacts on memory, linguistic-abstraction, attention, learning, and physical ability. The neurotoxic effects of arsenic could be particularly harmful for children during their critical growth periods and have impacts on early childhood development. This study uses cross-sectional data from the nationally representative 2012-13 Bangladesh Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey to investigate the effects of arsenic contamination in drinking water on early childhood development outcomes in a sample of around 7,500 children ages 3-5 years. Early childhood development is measured in four skills domains: literacy-numeracy, physical, social-emotional, and learning using the Early Childhood Development Index. Arsenic contamination is measured in source drinking water at the cluster-level. After controlling for a range of demographic, social, and economic characteristics of households, the results show that arsenic contamination is significantly and negatively associated with the overall Early Childhood Development Index, on outcomes within the physical, social-emotional, and learning skills domains. Further, there is a clear dose-response relationship, where those children with exposure to higher concentrations of arsenic have worse developmental outcomes.