Person:
Robertson, Raymond
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Fields of Specialization
International trade,
Labor economics
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Last updated
June 6, 2023
Biography
Dr. Raymond Robertson is a professor and holder of the Helen and Roy Ryu Chair in Economics and Government in the Department of International Affairs at the Bush School of Government and Public Service. He is a research fellow at the Institute for the Study of Labor in Bonn, Germany.
Robertson earned a BA in political science and economics from Trinity University in San Antonio, Texas, and an MS and PhD in economics from the University of Texas at Austin. He has taught at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University, and was a visiting professor in the Department of Economics at the Graduate School of Administration, Monterrey Institute of Technology’s Mexico City campus.
Widely published in the field of labor economics and international economics, Robertson currently chairs the US Department of Labor’s National Advisory Committee for Labor Provisions of the US Free Trade Agreements and is a member of the Center for Global Development’s advisory board.
Publication Search Results
1 - 6 of 6
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Publication
Has NAFTA Increased Labor Market Integration between the United States and Mexico?
(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2005-09)This article analyzes three criteria for labor market integration between Mexico and the United States (U.S.) before and since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA): the responsiveness of Mexican wages to US wage shocks, the speed at which relative wages return to a long-run differential, and changes in the rate of convergence of absolute wages. Tests for increased integration using these three criteria generate mixed results, which are then explored by directly incorporating trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), and migration. The results suggest that trade and FDI did in fact positively contribute to integration but that the increase in border enforcement depressed Mexican wages, masking the positive benefits. -
Publication
Tracking Wage Inequality Trends with Prices and Different Trade Models: Evidence from Mexico
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-11)Mexican wage inequality rose following Mexicos accession to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade/World Trade Organization in 1986. Since the mid-1990s, however, wage inequality has been falling. Since most trade models suggest that output prices can affect factor prices, this paper explores the relationship between output prices and wage inequality. The rise of inequality can be explained by the evolution of the relative price of skill-intensive goods relative to unskilled-intensive goods, but these prices flattened by 1999 and thus cannot explain the subsequent decline in wage inequality. An alternative trade model with firm heterogeneity driven by variations in the relative price of tradable relative to non-tradable goods can explain the decline in wage inequality. The paper compares this model’s predictions with Mexican inequality statistics using data on output prices, census data, and quarterly household survey data. In spite of the models simplicity, the model’s predictions match Mexican variables reasonably well during the years when wage inequality fell. -
Publication
Exports and Labor Demand: Evidence from Egyptian Firm-Level Data
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10)Unlike many countries, the Arab Republic of Egypt did not experience significant labor market improvements following trade liberalization. This paper investigates why increased Egyptian exports did not directly increase employment. To illustrate the relationship between firm-level exporting and employment, the paper presents a simplified general equilibrium model with two sectors: one able to export and one “reserve” sector. The paper tests the implications of this theory using firm-level data from the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys in 2013, 2016, and 2020. The firm-level microanalysis demonstrates that although there is a positive employment response to export expansion, it does not occur at a large enough scale to be felt at the macro level. To seize the benefits of trade, Egypt requires deeper business environment reforms to incentivize large export, labor-intensive sector growth and integrate its economy into global value chains. -
Publication
Exports to Jobs: Boosting the Gains from Trade in South Asia
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-02-24)South Asia’s economy has grown rapidly, and the region has made a significant reduction in poverty. However, the available jobs for the growing working population remain limited. Policy makers are contending with lingering concerns about jobless growth and poor job quality. Exports to Jobs: Boosting the Gains from Trade in South Asia posits that exports, could bring higher wages and better jobs to South Asia. We use a new methodology to estimate the potential impact from higher South Asian exports per worker on wages and employment. We find that increasing exports per worker would result in higher wages, mostly for the better-off groups—like the better-educated workers, men, and the more-experienced workers—although the less-skilled and rural workers would benefit from new job opportunities outside of the informal sector. Our report shows that to spread the benefits from higher exports widely, policies are needed to raise skills and get certain groups, such as women and youth, into more and better jobs. Complementary measures include removing trade barriers and investing in infrastructure, and increasing the ability of workers to find higher-paying jobs. Together, these actions would help South Asian countries spread the gains from being closely integrated into the global economy through exporting. This book, which is the product of a partnership between the International Labour Organization and the World Bank, contributes to our understanding of the impact that growing exports can have on increasing well-being, and it bridges the gap between academic research and policy making. -
Publication
Globalization, Wages, and the Quality of Jobs : Five Country Studies
(World Bank, 2009)The country studies in this volume analyze the link between globalization and working conditions in Cambodia, El Salvador, Honduras, Indonesia, and Madagascar. These countries vary significantly in population, economic circumstances, region, history, and institutions. All have experienced liberalization and globalization in the last 20 years. The heterogeneity of these countries provides the basis for a useful comparison of the effects of globalization on working conditions. As suggested in the framework, each country study has three main components: a description of the country's experience with globalization, a qualitative part that analyzes country-specific aspects of working conditions, and an analysis of changes in interindustry wage differentials (IIWDs) that can be compared across countries. In general, globalization has been characterized by export-driven foreign direct investment (FDI) concentrated in relatively few sectors. Export-driven FDI in the apparel sector plays a prominent role in each country, although to varying degrees. In Cambodia, apparel made up 82 percent of all merchandise exports in 2003. Nearly two-thirds of that total was destined for the U.S. market. Virtually all factories in the Cambodian garment sector are foreign owned. Honduras rose from being the 34th largest supplier of apparel to the United states (U.S.) market in 1990 to fourth place in 2003. In 2003, two-thirds of all Honduran exports to the U.S. were garments and more than 82 percent of all Honduran workers worked in foreign-owned factories. A similar pattern emerges for El Salvador. For Madagascar, apparel exports from the Zone Franche were the primary force behind the country's remarkable export growth and its transition from exporting primary products to exporting manufactured products between 1990 and 2005. By 2001, Madagascar had become the second most important clothing exporter in Sub-Saharan Africa as measured by total export value. -
Publication
Exports to Improve Labor Markets in the Middle East and North Africa
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-07)In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), trade liberalization measures have coincided with stable economic growth, and GDP per capita growth has surpassed that of other developing regions. However, MENA’s labor-market outcomes—such as average wage levels, informality rate, and female labor force participation—continue to underperform. Why has rising trade failed to produce better labor market outcomes in low- and middle-income countries in the region? Exports to Improve Labor Markets in the Middle East and North Africa focuses on the impact of trade policy on trade ¬flows and their relationship with local labor market outcomes in three low- and middle-income countries—the Arab Republic of Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia. Given their idiosyncratic labor markets, export diversification, and trade policy history, these three countries other important lessons for economic development in the region. Policy makers and stakeholders can use these findings to design policies to improve the chances that higher trade flows will deliver better labor market outcomes and ensure that the benefits are more equally shared.