Person:
Nayyar, Gaurav
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Economic growth,
Structural transformation,
India,
Development Economics,
International Economics
Degrees
ORCID
External Links
Departments
Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated
January 31, 2023
Biography
Gaurav Nayyar is a Senior Economist in the Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Vice Presidency at the World Bank, where he joined as a Young Professional in 2013. Previously, he was an Economics Affairs Officer in the Economic Research Division of the World Trade Organization, where he co-led the World Trade Report 2013, Factors Shaping the Future of World Trade. Gaurav’s research interests lie primarily in the areas of economic growth, structural transformation, trade, industrialization, and firm productivity, and he has published in a variety of academic journals on these issues. His previous books include Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development (with Mary Hallward-Driemeier), and The Service Sector in India’s Development (published by Cambridge University Press). Gaurav holds a D.Phil in Economics from the University of Oxford, where he was a Dorothy Hodgkin Scholar. His other alma maters include the London School of Economics and Political Science, the University of Cambridge, and St. Stephen’s College, University of Delhi.
Publication Search Results
1 - 8 of 8
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Publication
Gearing Up for the Future of Manufacturing in Bangladesh
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-21)Labor-intensive, export-oriented manufacturing driven by the ready-made garments industry has transformed Bangladesh's economy. But with automation, changing trade patterns and servicification reducing the importance of wage costs globally, the creation of more sustainable jobs in the manufacturing sector now needs the upgradation of firms' capabilities and technology adoption. Drawing on the World Bank's "Bangladesh Firm-level Adoption of Technology Survey", this report shows that there is significant scope to improve the manufacturing sector's performance and future prospects by promoting the adoption of better technologies in firms. It discusses how Bangladesh can achieve this aim through policies that address informational barriers to the acquisition of capabilities in firms, leverage international connectivity for technology diffusion, and strengthen key markets and institutions that underpin firms investment in technology. -
Publication
FDI and the Skill Premium: Evidence from Emerging Economies
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10)Foreign direct investment may play an important role in transferring technologies from high-income to emerging economies, which can lead to uneven effects on the wages of skilled and unskilled workers. This paper combines project-level data on greenfield foreign direct investment with household surveys to estimate the effects of foreign direct investment on the wage skill premium across sectors and regions in seven emerging economies (Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, Mexico, the Philippines, South Africa, and Vietnam). The results suggest that foreign direct investment is associated with a higher probability of employment and higher wages for unskilled workers, relative to skilled workers, in six of the seven countries analyzed in this paper. Moreover, the effects of foreign direct investment on wages are relatively larger for unskilled women. -
Publication
Developing Countries and Services in the New Industrial Paradigm
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-12)The traditional export-led manufacturing model provided the twin benefits of productivity gains and job creation for unskilled labor in the past. Over the past two decades, however, the peak shares of manufacturing in value added and employment across a range of developing economies occurred at lower levels of per capita income compared to their high-income, early-industrializer precursors. Looking ahead, there is a concern whether labor-saving technologies associated with Industry 4.0 -- such as robotics, the Internet of Things, and 3-D printing -- will make it even more difficult for lower-income countries to have a significant role in global manufacturing. Can services-led development be an alternative? This paper provides a conceptual framework to inform the discussion, drawing on available empirical evidence from the literature on the subject. The features of manufacturing once thought to be uniquely special for productivity growth are increasingly shared by some services that yield the benefits of scale, greater competition, and technology diffusion associated with international trade. Yet, without sufficient human capital, there are limits to how much labor can be absorbed in these service sectors, which are also highly skill-intensive. Further, while some high-productivity services largely serve final demand or derive demand from several sectors, others are more closely linked to a manufacturing base. -
Publication
Trouble in the Making?: The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-09-20)Globalization and new technologies are impacting the desirability and feasibility of what has historically been the most successful development strategy. Manufacturing has been seen as special, promising both productivity gains and job creation. But trade is slowing. Global value chains (GVC) are maturing. Robotics, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, and the Internet of things are shifting what makes locations attractive for production and threatening significant disruptions in employment. There is a risk of increased polarization, within countries and across countries. Shifting the attention from high-income countries, this report takes the perspective of developing countries to ask: -- If new technologies reduce the importance of low-wage labor, how can developing countries compete? -- Do countries need to industrialize to develop? -- How can countries at different levels of development take advantage of new opportunities? Development strategies need to broaden. Different manufacturing sub-sectors can still provide productivity growth or jobs; fewer can deliver both. Many of the pro-development characteristics traditionally associated with manufacturing--tradability, scale, innovation, learning-by-doing--are increasingly features of services. With faster diffusion of technology, it will be all the more important for countries to improve the enabling environment, remain open to trade, and support capabilities of firms and workers to ensure future prosperity is shared. -
Publication
Does Premature Deindustrialization Matter? The Role of Manufacturing versus Services in Development
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-09)The shares of manufacturing in value added and employment across a range of developing economies peaked at lower levels of per capita income compared with their high-income, early-industrializer precursors. Based on the statistical analysis of input-output tables and firm-level data, the paper contributes to the discussion on whether this "premature deindustrialization" matters by showing that: a) the premature declining share of the manufacturing sector is largely not driven by a statistical artifice whereby what was earlier subsumed in manufacturing value added is now accounted for as service sector contributions; b) Some features of manufacturing that were thought of as uniquely special for development, such as scale economies, exports, and innovation, are increasingly shared by services sector firms. Yet, a given service subsector is unlikely to provide opportunities for productivity growth and job creation for unskilled labor simultaneously; c) Some high-productivity services serve final demand or derive demand from several sectors, while others are more closely linked to a manufacturing base. -
Publication
Are the 'Poor' Getting Globalized?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10)One reason that poor people may not capture the full benefit from participation in international markets is that the goods they produce tend to be subject to relatively high trade barriers. This paper analyzes market access barriers faced by households in different income deciles by matching household survey data from India based on the industrial classification of their economic activity. Tariffs in international markets are higher, and nontariff measures more numerous, on goods produced by poor workers than on goods produced by rich workers. Tariffs faced by exporters are higher on goods produced in rural and more remote areas than on those in urban centers, on goods produced by informal enterprises than by formal ones, and on goods produced by women than by men. Furthermore, the global reduction in tariffs from 1996 to 2012 failed to ameliorate these differences. How did we get there? Efforts to protect poor workers across countries resulted in a coordination problem. Indeed, tariff protection in China and the United States is higher on goods produced by poor workers than on goods produced by rich workers. Therefore, if poor workers are employed in similar sectors, then each country's attempts to protect its poor workers by imposing higher tariffs and more nontariff measures on such goods will reduce the access of all poor workers to international markets, and thus limit the gains from trade. -
Publication
Have Robots Grounded the Flying Geese? Evidence from Greenfield FDI in Manufacturing
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-12)For decades, manufacturers around the world have outsourced production to countries with lower labor costs. However, there is a concern that robotization in high-income countries will challenge this shifting international division of labor known as the "flying geese" paradigm. Greenfield foreign direct investment decisions constitute a forward-looking indicator of where production is expected, rather than trade flows that reflect past investment decisions. Exploiting differences across countries and industries, the intensity of robot use in high-income countries has a positive impact on foreign direct investment growth from high-income countries to low- and middle-income countries over 2004-15. Past a threshold, however, increased robotization in high-income countries has a negative impact on foreign direct investment growth. Only 3 percent of the sample exceeds the threshold level beyond which further automation results in negative foreign direct investment growth and is consistent with re-shoring. For another 25 percent of the sample, the impact of robotization on the growth of foreign direct investment is positive, but at a rate that is declining. So, although these are early warning signs, automation in high-income countries has resulted in growing foreign direct investment for more than two-thirds of the sample under consideration. Some geese may be slowing, but for now, most continue to fly. -
Publication
Europe 4.0: Addressing the Digital Dilemma
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11-09)This report examines the underlying economics of different types of digital technologies. It highlights what the new drivers of change are, why the dynamics with this latest round of technological change may be different, and what the distributional impacts may be within and across countries. It then examines the evidence for how different digital technologies are – or are not – contributing to competitiveness and opportunities for small and young firms, and firms in less developed areas, and what can be done about it. Europe faces a digital dilemma. European firms are particularly strong in operational technologies such as smart robotics and 3D printing. While this helps Europe's competitiveness, it also widens the divide between large and small firms, and leading and lagging regions. On the other hand, digital technologies, such as transactional technologies or matching platforms, have the greatest potential for market inclusion and convergence, but this is where Europe remains less competitive. The report lays out how Europe 4.0 is attainable. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has highlighted the importance of the data economy — and raised the risks if the digital dilemma is not addressed. This report provides a framework, evidence and recommendations on how governments can respond. Europe has the chance to attain a dynamic and inclusive technologically enhanced future, it should take that chance.