Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Economic growth, Structural transformation, India, Development Economics, International Economics
Equitable Growth, Finance, and Institutions
Externally Hosted Work
Last updated January 31, 2023
Gaurav Nayyar is a Senior Economist in the Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions Vice Presidency at the World Bank, where he joined as a Young Professional in 2013. Previously, he was an Economics Affairs Officer in the Economic Research Division of the World Trade Organization, where he co-led the World Trade Report 2013, Factors Shaping the Future of World Trade. Gaurav’s research interests lie primarily in the areas of economic growth, structural transformation, trade, industrialization, and firm productivity, and he has published in a variety of academic journals on these issues. His previous books include Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development (with Mary Hallward-Driemeier), and The Service Sector in India’s Development (published by Cambridge University Press). Gaurav holds a D.Phil in Economics from the University of Oxford, where he was a Dorothy Hodgkin Scholar. His other alma maters include the London School of Economics and Political Science, the University of Cambridge, and St. Stephen’s College, University of Delhi.
Publication Search Results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 14
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-01) Cirera, Xavier ; Cruz, Marcio ; Davies, Elwyn ; Grover, Arti ; Iacovone, Leonardo ; Lopez Cordova, Jose Ernesto ; Medvedev, Denis ; Okechukwu Maduko, Franklin ; Nayyar, Gaurav ; Reyes Ortega, Santiago ; Torres, JesicaRelying on a novel dataset covering more than 120,000 firms in 60 countries, this paper con-tributes to the debate about D policies to support businesses through the COVID-19 pandemic. While governments around the world have implemented a wide range of policy support measures, evidence on the reach of these policies, the alignment of measures with firm needs, and their targeting and effectiveness remains scarce. This paper provides the most comprehensive assessment to date of these issues, focusing primarily on the developing economies. It shows that policy reach has been limited, especially for the more vulnerable firms and countries, and identifies mismatches between policies provided and policies most sought. It also provides some indicative evidence regarding mistargeting of policies and their effectiveness in addressing liquidity constraints and preventing layoffs. This assessment provides some early guidance to policymakers on tailoring their COVID-19 business support packages and points to new directions in data and research efforts needed to guide policy responses to the current pandemic and future crises.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) Avdiu, Besart ; Bagavathinathan, Karan Singh ; Chaurey, Ritam ; Nayyar, GauravThis paper examines the effect of tradable services growth on non-tradable services across Indian districts. The analysis uses a shift-share “Bartik-type” instrumental variable, which relies on changes in foreign demand shocks for tradable services, weighted by the initial district employment shares in tradable services. Using multiple rounds of the Indian Economic Censuses, the findings show that an increase in tradable services employment leads to an increase in non-tradable services employment and increases the number of firms in non-tradable services. The evidence suggests that this positive impact is due to an increase in consumer demand for local non-tradable services that results from the growth in tradable services employment, and not due to sectoral linkages between tradable and non-tradable services sectors. The employment impact is much larger for female workers compared to male workers, and for the number of female-owned firms relative to male-owned firms. Further, the employment impact is only significant for small non-tradable service firms.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-05) Maloney, William F. ; Nayyar, GauravGovernments are resource and bandwidth constrained, and hence need to prioritize productivity-enhancing policies. To do so requires information on the nature and magnitude of market failures on the one hand, and government’s capacity to redress them successfully on the other. The paper reviews perspectives on vertical (sectoral) and horizontal (factor markets, cluster) policies with an eye to both criteria. It first argues that the case for either cannot be made on the basis of the likelihood of successful implementation: for instance, educational and picking the winner types of policies both run the risks of capture and incompetent execution. However, the profession has been able to establish more convincing market failures for horizontal policies than for vertical policies. Most of the recent approaches to identifying failures around particular goods, the paper argues, are of limited help. Hence, for a given difficulty of execution, the former are generally to be preferred. A second critical message is that improving the quality of governance in terms of collecting information, coordination ability, and defending against capture is critical to successful implementation of productivity policies and should be central on the policy agenda.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10) Cruz, Marcio ; Nayyar, Gaurav ; Toews, Gerhard ; Vezina, Pierre-LouisForeign direct investment may play an important role in transferring technologies from high-income to emerging economies, which can lead to uneven effects on the wages of skilled and unskilled workers. This paper combines project-level data on greenfield foreign direct investment with household surveys to estimate the effects of foreign direct investment on the wage skill premium across sectors and regions in seven emerging economies (Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia, Mexico, the Philippines, South Africa, and Vietnam). The results suggest that foreign direct investment is associated with a higher probability of employment and higher wages for unskilled workers, relative to skilled workers, in six of the seven countries analyzed in this paper. Moreover, the effects of foreign direct investment on wages are relatively larger for unskilled women.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-05) Avdiu, Besart ; Nayyar, GauravThere is a crisis of demand brewing around the globe as social distancing becomes the norm to counter the COVID-19 outbreak. So, which parts of the economy are most in the line of fire? Looking at jobs that can be done at home or that require a high degree of face-to-face interactions with consumers can capture complementary but distinct mechanisms to assess this vulnerability. This paper uses data on 900 job titles from the Occupational Information Network (O*NET) database for the United States to demonstrate that there is substantial heterogeneity in vulnerability across industries, income groups, and gender. First, industries vary in whether they emphasize face-to-face interactions and home-based work and the two do not always go hand-in-hand. Second, occupations that are less amenable to home-based work are largely concentrated among the lower wage deciles. Third, a larger share of women's employment is accounted for by occupations that are intensive in face-to-face interactions.
Publication(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2018-08) Maloney, William F. ; Nayyar, GauravGovernments are resource- and bandwidth-constrained, and hence need to prioritize productivity-enhancing policies. To do so requires information on the nature and magnitude of market failures on the one hand, and government's capacity to redress them successfully on the other. This article reviews perspectives on vertical (sectoral) and horizontal (factor markets, cluster) policies with a view to both criteria. We first argue that the case for either vertical or horizontal policies cannot be made on the basis of the likelihood of successful implementation: for instance, educational policies and “picking the winner” types of policies both run the risks of capture and incompetent execution. However, the economics profession has been able to establish more convincing market failures for horizontal policies than for vertical policies. Most of the recent approaches to identifying failures around particular goods are of limited help. Hence, for a given difficulty of execution, the former are generally preferred. A second critical message is that improving the quality of governance in terms of collecting information, coordination ability, and defending against capture is critical to the successful implementation of productivity policies and should be central on the policy agenda.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-12) Nayyar, Gaurav ; Cruz, MarcioThe traditional export-led manufacturing model provided the twin benefits of productivity gains and job creation for unskilled labor in the past. Over the past two decades, however, the peak shares of manufacturing in value added and employment across a range of developing economies occurred at lower levels of per capita income compared to their high-income, early-industrializer precursors. Looking ahead, there is a concern whether labor-saving technologies associated with Industry 4.0 -- such as robotics, the Internet of Things, and 3-D printing -- will make it even more difficult for lower-income countries to have a significant role in global manufacturing. Can services-led development be an alternative? This paper provides a conceptual framework to inform the discussion, drawing on available empirical evidence from the literature on the subject. The features of manufacturing once thought to be uniquely special for productivity growth are increasingly shared by some services that yield the benefits of scale, greater competition, and technology diffusion associated with international trade. Yet, without sufficient human capital, there are limits to how much labor can be absorbed in these service sectors, which are also highly skill-intensive. Further, while some high-productivity services largely serve final demand or derive demand from several sectors, others are more closely linked to a manufacturing base.
Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-09-20) Hallward-Driemeier, Mary ; Nayyar, GauravGlobalization and new technologies are impacting the desirability and feasibility of what has historically been the most successful development strategy. Manufacturing has been seen as special, promising both productivity gains and job creation. But trade is slowing. Global value chains (GVC) are maturing. Robotics, artificial intelligence, 3D printing, and the Internet of things are shifting what makes locations attractive for production and threatening significant disruptions in employment. There is a risk of increased polarization, within countries and across countries. Shifting the attention from high-income countries, this report takes the perspective of developing countries to ask: -- If new technologies reduce the importance of low-wage labor, how can developing countries compete? -- Do countries need to industrialize to develop? -- How can countries at different levels of development take advantage of new opportunities? Development strategies need to broaden. Different manufacturing sub-sectors can still provide productivity growth or jobs; fewer can deliver both. Many of the pro-development characteristics traditionally associated with manufacturing--tradability, scale, innovation, learning-by-doing--are increasingly features of services. With faster diffusion of technology, it will be all the more important for countries to improve the enabling environment, remain open to trade, and support capabilities of firms and workers to ensure future prosperity is shared.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-09) Nayyar, Gaurav ; Cruz, Marcio ; Zhu, LinghuiThe shares of manufacturing in value added and employment across a range of developing economies peaked at lower levels of per capita income compared with their high-income, early-industrializer precursors. Based on the statistical analysis of input-output tables and firm-level data, the paper contributes to the discussion on whether this "premature deindustrialization" matters by showing that: a) the premature declining share of the manufacturing sector is largely not driven by a statistical artifice whereby what was earlier subsumed in manufacturing value added is now accounted for as service sector contributions; b) Some features of manufacturing that were thought of as uniquely special for development, such as scale economies, exports, and innovation, are increasingly shared by services sector firms. Yet, a given service subsector is unlikely to provide opportunities for productivity growth and job creation for unskilled labor simultaneously; c) Some high-productivity services serve final demand or derive demand from several sectors, while others are more closely linked to a manufacturing base.
Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-09-15) Nayyar, Gaurav ; Hallward-Driemeier, Mary ; Davies, ElwynThroughout history, industrialization has been synonymous with development. However, the trend of premature deindustrialization and the spread of automation technologies associated with Industry 4.0 has raised concerns that the development model based on export-led manufacturing seen in East Asia will be harder for hitherto less industrialized countries to replicate in the future. Can services-led development be an alternative? Contrary to conventional wisdom, the features of manufacturing that were considered uniquely conducive for productivity growth - such as international trade, scale economies, inter-sectoral linkages, and innovation - are increasingly shared by the services sector. But services are not monolithic. The twin gains of productivity growth and large-scale job creation for relatively low-skilled workers are less likely to come together in any given services subsector. The promise of services-led development in the future will be strengthened to the extent that technological change reduces the trade-off between productivity and jobs, and growth opportunities in services with potential for high productivity do not depend on a manufacturing base. Considering technological change and linkages between sectors while differentiating across types of services, this book assesses the scope of a services-driven development model and policy directions that maximize its potential.