Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Economics of Development, Environment, and Climate
Externally Hosted Work
Last updated May 3, 2023
Jun Rentschler is a Senior Economist at the Office of the Chief Economist for Sustainable Development, working at the intersection of climate change and sustainable resilient development. Prior to joining The World Bank in 2012, he served as an Economic Adviser at the German Foreign Ministry. He also spent two years at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) working on private sector investment projects in resource efficiency and climate change. Before that he worked on projects with Grameen Microfinance Bank in Bangladesh and the Partners for Financial Stability Program by USAID in Poland. He is a Visiting Fellow at the Payne Institute for Public Policy, following previous affiliations with the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and the Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. Jun holds a PhD in Economics from University College London (UCL), specializing in development, climate, and energy.
Publication Search Results
Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
Coastal Development between Opportunity and Disaster Risk: A Multisectoral Risk Assessment for Vietnam(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08) Braese, Johannes ; De Vries Robbe, Sophie Anne ; Rentschler, JunThis paper presents a multisectoral risk assessment, analyzing natural risks faced by key drivers of socioeconomic development in coastal Vietnam. The analysis quantifies the exposure of assets and economic activity to the following natural hazards: riverine flooding, coastal flooding, typhoon winds, coastal erosion, and saline intrusion. These hazards are analyzed according to their impact on agricultural production, aquaculture, human settlements, industrial zones, tourism, health care facilities, schools, and the electricity transmission network. Overall, the results show the complex nature of natural risk in Vietnam, with significant exposure of key economic sectors, public services and assets. The estimates suggest that exposure varies greatly between hazards, sectors, and provinces. This paper provides detailed technical descriptions of the methodologies, data sources, and analytical assumptions employed to obtain the estimates, and acts as a technical background paper to Resilient Shores: Vietnam's Coastal Development between Opportunity and Disaster Risk (Rentschler et al., 2020).
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06) Rentschler, Jun ; Obolensky, Marguerite ; Kornejew, MartinThis study finds that natural shocks -- storms in particular -- are a significant and often leading cause for power supply disruptions. This finding is based on 20 years of high frequency (i.e. daily) data on power outages and climate variables in 28 countries -- Bangladesh, the United States and 26 European countries. More specifically: (1) Natural shocks are the most important cause of power outages in developed economies. On average, they account for more than 50 of annual outage duration in both the US and Europe. In contrast, natural shocks are responsible for a small share of outages in Bangladesh, where disruptions occur on a daily basis for a variety of reasons. (2) Outages due to natural shocks are found to last significantly longer than those due to non-natural shocks in -- e.g. more than 4.5 times in Europe. Reasons include the challenge of locating wide-spread damages, and the sustained duration of storms. (3) Several factors can reinforce the adverse effect of natural shocks on power supply. In the US, forest cover is shown to significantly increase the risk of power outages when storms occur. (4) There are significant differences in network fragility. For instance, wind speeds above 35 km/h are found to be 12 times more likely to cause an outage in Bangladesh than in the US. This difference may be explained by a range of factors, including investments in infrastructure resilience and maintenance.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06) Obolensky, Marguerite ; Erman, Alvina ; Rozenberg, Julie ; Rentschler, Jun ; Avner, Paolo ; Hallegatte, StephaneThis review examines the literature on the welfare impacts of infrastructure disruptions. There is widespread evidence that households suffer from the consequences of a lack of infrastructure reliability, and that being connected to the grid is not sufficient to close the infrastructure gap. Disruptions and irregular service have adverse effects on household welfare, due to missed work and education opportunities, and negative impact on health. Calibrating costs of unreliable infrastructure on existing willingness to pay assessments, we estimate the welfare losses associated with blackouts and water outages. Overall, between 0.1 and 0.2 percent of GDP would be lost each year because of unreliable infrastructure -- electricity, water and transport.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-05) He, Yiyi ; Rentschler, Jun ; Avner, Paolo ; Gao, Jianxi ; Yue, Xiangyu ; Radke, JohnThis study provides the first global evaluation of both direct and indirect flood hazard impacts on road transportation networks. It constructs topological road networks for 2,564 human settlements, representing over 14 million kilometers of urban roads. It assesses their exposure to pluvial and fluvial flood risks under 10 scenarios, corresponding to different flood intensities (1:5 year to 1:1,000 year return periods). Under each scenario, the study analyzes direct infrastructure exposure and assesses the indirect effects of flood-induced mobility disruptions: route failures, travel delays, and travel distance increases. The results document a positive relationship between flood return period and flood impact (both direct and indirect). Compared with direct flood hazard exposure, the indirect impact of floods on mobility is more prominent and heterogeneous. The average share of the road network that is flooded by at least 0.3 meters is 3.64 percent (or 24.84 percent) under the 5-year (or 1,000-year) return period, yet 11.58 percent (or 65.67 percent) of the simulated trips fail in the same scenario. The results enable comparisons of exposure and vulnerability of road networks to flood hazards across countries, allowing the identification and prioritization of urban transport resilience measures.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06) Rentschler, Jun ; Braese, Johannes ; Jones, Nick ; Avner, PaoloThis paper analyses the degree to which infrastructure reliability and urban economic activity in several African cities is impacted by flooding. It combines firm-level micro data, flood maps, and several spatial data layers across cities through a harmonized geospatial network analysis. The analysis shows that a significant share of jobs in cities is directly affected by floods. It further details how transport infrastructure is subjected to significant flood risk that disproportionally affects main roads in many cities. While direct flood effects are revealed to be significant, this work further shows how knock-on implications for the entire urban economy might be even larger. Regardless of the direct flood exposure of firms, flooded transport networks mean that disruptions propagate across the city and drastically reduce the connectivity between firms. Access to hospitals is also found to be reduced significantly -- even during relatively light flooding events: From a third of locations in Kampala, floods mean that people would no longer be able to reach hospitals within the "golden hour" -- a rule of thumb referring to the window of time that maximizes the likelihood of survival after a severe medical incident. Overall, this study showcases the use of high-detail city-level analyses to better understand the localized impacts of natural hazards on urban infrastructure networks.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-06) Rentschler, Jun ; Kornejew, Martin ; Hallegatte, Stephane ; Braese, Johannes ; Obolensky, MargueriteThis study constructs a microdata set of about 143,000 firms to estimate the monetary costs of infrastructure disruptions in 137 low- and middle-income countries, representing 78 percent of the world population and 80 percent of the GDP of low- and -middle-income countries. Specifically, this study assesses the impact of transport, electricity, and water disruptions on the capacity utilization rates of firms. The estimates suggest that utilization losses amount to $151 billion a year -- of which $107 billion are due to transport disruptions, $38 billion due to blackouts, and $6 billion due to dryouts. Moreover, this study shows that electricity outages are causing sales losses equivalent to $82 billion a year. Firms are also incurring the costs of self-generated electricity, estimated to amount to $64 billion a year (including annualized capital expenditure). At almost $300 billion a year, these figures highlight the substantial drag that unreliable infrastructure imposes on firms in developing countries. Yet, these figures are likely to be under-estimates as neither all countries nor all types of impacts are covered.