Person:
Gragnolati, Michele

Health, Nutrition and Population
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Fields of Specialization
Demography, Health economics, Population studies, Aging, Development economics
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ORCID
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Health, Nutrition and Population
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Last updated: January 31, 2023
Biography
Michele Gragnolati currently serves as the Manager for Strategy, Operations and Global Engagement in the Health, Nutrition and Population Global Practice. He joined the World Bank as a Young Professional in 1998 and since 2000, he served first as an economist with the health sector in Latin America and South Asia, and later as program leader for Human Development for the Western Balkans, Brazil, and Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. His last position was as Global Lead for Population and Development and he worked mostly on issues related to high fertility and rapid population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Before coming back to HQ in Washington, DC, Michele was based in Sarajevo, Brasilia and Buenos Aires. Michele has published on different topics, including methodological and statistical demography, poverty during the East Asia financial crisis, malnutrition in Central America and India, the impact of health expenditures on poverty in former Yugoslavia, the economics of demographic change in Africa and the socioeconomic implications of population aging in Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. Economist graduated from Luigi Bocconi Commercial University (Italy), Gragnolati has also a Master’s Degree in Population and Development from the London School of Economics (Great Britain) and a Ph.D. in Demography from the University of Princeton (USA). Michele speaks Italian, English, Spanish, French and Portuguese.
Citations 72 Scopus

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As Time Goes By in Argentina: Economic Opportunities and Challenges of the Demographic Transition

2015-04-23, Gragnolati, Michele, Rofman, Rafael, Apella, Ignacio, Troiano, Sara, Grushka, Carlos, Comelatto, Pablo, Maceira, Daniel, Barbieri, María Eugenia, Marchionni, Mariana, Alejo, Javier, Cetrángolo, Oscar, Fanelli, José María

The process of demographic transition through which Argentina is passing is a window of both opportunities and challenges in economic and social terms. Argentina is still a young country in which the working-age population represents the largest proportion of its total population. Currently, the country just began a 30-year period with the most advantageous age structure of its population, which could favor greater economic growth. This situation, known as the 'demographic window of opportunity,' will last until the beginning of the 2040s. The dynamics of the fertility and mortality rates signify a gradual ageing of the population, with implications for various dimensions of the economy, the social protection system, public policies, and society in general. This book studies the opportunities and challenges that the demographic transition poses for the Argentine economy, its most important social sectors like the healthcare, education, and social protection systems, and the potential fiscal trade-offs that must be dealt with. The study shows that even though Argentina is moving through its demographic transition, it just recently began to enjoy the window of opportunity and this constitutes a great opportunity to achieve an accumulation of capital and future economic growth. Once the window of opportunity has passed, population ageing will have a significant impact on the level of expenditure, especially spending in the social protection system. This signifies a challenge from a fiscal policy point of view, because if long-term reforms are not undertaken to mediate these effects, the demographic transition will put pressure on the reallocation of fiscal resources among social sectors. Finally, population ageing poses concerns related to sustaining the rate of economic growth with a smaller working-age population. Taking advantage of the current window of opportunities, increasing savings that will finance the accumulation of capital, and increasing future labor force productivity in this way is a challenge for the Argentine economy.