Person:
Dinh, Hinh Truong
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
international finance; public finance; industrialization; economic development; Africa; Asia
Degrees
Departments
Strategy and Operations, Development Economics Group, World Bank
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated
January 31, 2023
Biography
Hinh T. Dinh is Lead Economist in the Office of the Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the World Bank. Previously, he served as Lead Economist in the Africa Region (1998–2008), the Finance Complex (1991–98), and the Middle East and North Africa Region at the Bank (1979–81). His research focuses on public finance, international finance, industrialization, and economic development. His latest books include
Light Manufacturing in Africa (2012),
Performance of Manufacturing Firms in Africa (2012),
Light Manufacturing in Zambia (2013),
Tales from the Development Frontier (2013),and
Light Manufacturing in Tanzania (2013).
Publication Search Results
1 - 10 of 12
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Publication
Light Manufacturing in Zambia : Job Creation and Prosperity in a Resource-Based Economy
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-06-21)This book on light manufacturing in Zambia is part of broader World Bank work on light manufacturing in Africa. The focus on light manufacturing, with its emphasis on labor-intensive economic activities, is particularly appropriate for a resource-based economy such as that of Zambia. While Zambia's recent growth has been impressive, it has not been accompanied with adequate job creation. The long-term job creation in copper production has been small; links to the rest of the economy tend to be weak as well; and the development of natural resources tends to discourage job-creating sectors such as manufacturing in any case. This book has several innovative features. First, it provides in-depth cost comparisons between Zambia and four other countries in Africa and Asia at the sector and product levels. Second, the book uses a wide array of quantitative and qualitative techniques to identify key constraints to enterprises and to evaluate differences in the performance of firms across countries. Third, it uses a focused approach to identify country-and industry-specific constraints. It proposes market-based measures and selected government interventions to ease these constraints. Fourth, it highlights the interconnectedness of constraints and solutions. For example, solving the manufacturing input problem requires actions in agriculture, education, and infrastructure. The book shows that Zambia has the potential to become regionally competitive in several light manufacturing subsectors by leveraging its comparative advantage in natural resource industries such as agriculture, livestock, and forestry. Growing the production of light manufacturing goods would allow Zambia to capture more value from its raw materials and create more jobs. -
Publication
The Impact of Cash Budgets on Poverty Reduction in Zambia : A Case Study of the Conflict between Well-Intentioned Macroeconomic Policy and Service Delivery to the Poor
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2002-10)Facing runaway inflation and budget discipline problems in the early 1990s, the Zambian government introduced the so-called cash budget in which government domestic spending is limited to domestic revenue, leaving no room for excess spending. The authors review Zambia's experience during the past decade, focusing on the impact of the cash budget on poverty reduction. They conclude that after some initial success in reducing hyperinflation, the cash budget has largely failed to keep inflation at low levels, created a false sense of fiscal security, and distracted policymakers from addressing the fundamental issue of fiscal discipline. More important, it has had a deeply pernicious effect on the quality of service delivery to the poor. Features inherent to the cash budgeting system facilitated a substantial redirection of resources away from the intended targets, such as agencies and ministries that provide social and economic services. The cash budget also eliminated the predictability of cash releases, making effective planning by line ministries difficult. Going forward, Zambia must adopt measures that over time will restore the commitment to budget discipline and shelter budget execution decisions from the pressures of purely short-term exigencies. -
Publication
Tales from the Development Frontier : How China and Other Countries Harness Light Manufacturing to Create Jobs and Prosperity
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-09)Despite widespread agreement among economists that labor-intensive manufacturing has contributed mightily to rapid development in China and other fast-growing economies, most developing countries have had little success in raising the share of manufacturing in production, employment, or exports. Tales from the Development Frontier recounts efforts to establish light manufacturing clusters in several Asian and African countries, looking in particular at China. A companion volume to Light Manufacturing in Africa—which laid out a strategy for injecting new industrial growth nodes into African economies—Tales from the Development Frontier focuses on the six main binding constraints to competitiveness that nascent light manufacturing industries must overcome in developing countries: the availability, cost, and quality of inputs; access to industrial land; access to finance; trade logistics; entrepreneurial capabilities, both technical and managerial; and worker skills. The volume systematically explores potential growth opportunities in light manufacturing in a carefully selected subset of industries: agribusiness, apparel, leather goods, wood-working, and metal products. It specifies the constraints that need to be addressed before local and international entrepreneurs can take advantage of the latent comparative advantage available to many low-income economies in the target industries. It also proposes policies to ease the constraints—policies that can open the door to rapid increases in industrial output, employment, productivity, and exports. The outcomes described in this volume include both inspiring successes and miserable failures in addressing the binding constraints in the identified sectors. These examples reveal how and why industrial development efforts in poor countries—where, by definition, underlying conditions are far from ideal—can accelerate growth. Most of the firms described in a series of case studies started from a very simple and modest base in an environment full of seemingly insurmountable obstacles. With its rich array of new material, this book will support the ongoing research of policy analysts focused on China and other developing countries. Above all, the volume aims to embolden business entrepreneurs and government officials in low-income countries to pursue newly emerging opportunities to expand and accelerate the growth of light manufacturing in their home economies. -
Publication
Social Capital, Product Imitation and Growth with Learning Externalities
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-09)Links between social capital, human capital, and product imitation are studied in an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth where the key benefit of social capital is to promote imitation. There is also a two-way interaction between imitation and human capital. Building social capital (which brings direct utility) requires time. Because life expectancy is endogenously related to human capital, time allocation between market work and social capital accumulation is also endogenously determined. Social capital accumulation depends also on access to infrastructure. The model is calibrated numerically for a low-income country. A policy that helps to promote social capital accumulation may be very effective to foster economic growth, even if it involves offsetting cuts in other productive components of government spending, such as education outlays or infrastructure investment. Offsetting cuts in infrastructure investment, however, may be less effective. -
Publication
From Imitation to Innovation : Public Policy for Industrial Transformation
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-05)What role does public policy play in helping countries accelerate the industrialization process? This note aims to answer this question by applying a framework to analyze the process of transitioning from imitation to innovation. Based on a dynamic model of growth, simulations suggest that learning through imitation may enable firms to improve productivity significantly in a first stage, and that this may eventually benefit innovation activity as well. The model also shows how failure to switch from imitation as the main source of productivity growth to broad-based, homegrown innovation could lead to the 'middle-income trap' that has befallen some countries. -
Publication
Performance of Manufacturing Firms in Africa : An Empirical Analysis
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2012-08-07)This book sheds light on the characteristics of formal and informal manufacturing firms in Africa by comparing these firms with firms in other regions. Drawing on two data sources, the authors find that there is a very low share of manufacturing in GDP in Africa and in African exports. Most African manufacturing firms are informal. These firms are also smaller than firms in other regions and few export. Labor productivity is low in Africa relative to other regions, but this may be because of the more challenging environment - with the lack of physical infrastructure, the heavy burden of business regulation, and other issues. However, after accounting for these differences, the authors find that firms in Sub-Saharan Africa appear more, not less, productive than firms elsewhere. This analysis suggests that improving the business environment might allow firms to enhance their performance. However, given the pervasive distortions in the business environment and the limited resources at the disposal of most African countries, Africa cannot and should not wait until the business environment becomes healthier before growing a more viable manufacturing sector. The book shows that binding constraints vary by country, by sector, and by firm size. Therefore, countries should identify the constraints in the most promising sectors and adopt policies designed specifically to remove these constraints. The evidence in this book overwhelmingly dispels the false notion of Africa's inability to compete globally in manufacturing goods. -
Publication
Light Manufacturing in Africa : Targeted Policies to Enhance Private Investment and Create Jobs
(World Bank, 2012-02-21)The World Bank's strategy for Africa's future recognizes the central importance of industrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa, and the consequent creation of productive jobs for Africans, which have long been a preoccupation of African leaders and policy makers. This book represents an attempt to address these issues. The book stresses that, while the recent turnaround in Africa's economic growth is encouraging, this growth must be accompanied by structural transformation to be sustainable and to create productive employment for its people. For many African countries, this transformation involves lifting workers from low-productivity agriculture and informal sectors into higher productivity activities. Light manufacturing can offer a viable solution for Sub-Saharan Africa, given its potential competitiveness that is based on low wage costs and abundance of natural resources that supply raw materials needed for industries. This study has five features that distinguish it from previous studies. First, the detailed studies on light manufacturing at the subsector and product levels in five countries provide in-depth cost comparisons between Asia and Africa. Second, building on a growing body of work, the report uses a wide array of quantitative and qualitative techniques, including quantitative surveys and value chain analysis, to identify key constraints to enterprises and to evaluate differences in firm performance across countries. Third, the findings that firm constraints vary by country, sector, and firm size led us to adopt a targeted approach to identifying constraints and combining market-based measures and selected government interventions to remove them. Fourth, the solution to light manufacturing problems cuts across many sectors and does not lie only in manufacturing alone. Solving the problem of manufacturing inputs requires solving specific issues in agriculture, education, and infrastructure. Fifth, the report draws on experiences and solutions from other developing countries to inform its recommendations. The report's goal is to find practical ways to increase employment and spur job creation in Sub-Saharan Africa. -
Publication
Light Manufacturing in Tanzania : A Reform Agenda for Job Creation and Prosperity
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2013-09)The chapters in part one provides the overall context of light manufacturing in Tanzania. Chapter one presents the rationale for the study, the potential of the sector in creating jobs and prosperity for Africa, and the approach and methodology of the study. Chapter two reviews Tanzania's recent economic performance and prospects and concludes that, despite good macroeconomic performance, the country still needs to pursue structural transformation and diversification. Moreover, despite Tanzania's abundant natural endowments, manufacturing remains a viable source for job creation and prosperity. Chapter three examines the overall business environment among firms of all sizes in light industry in Tanzania. It first reviews the macroeconomic framework, focusing on wages, exchange rates, and interest rates before analyzing the microeconomic issues affecting firms such as export incentives, trade logistics, and access to electricity, land, and finance. Competition, an issue of paramount importance in improving Tanzania's competitiveness, is analyzed next, before a discussion of a potential shortcut for addressing some of the related macro and micro problems. -
Publication
US–China External Imbalance and the Global Financial Crisis
(Taylor and Francis, 2010-06-23)This paper advances an alternative explanation of the large external imbalance between the United States and China, and its linkages to the current global financial crisis. We show that US current account deficits dated back long before the emergence of China's recent large trade surpluses, with China accounting at its peak for at most one-third of this deficit. The relative rise in China's savings in recent years can be attributed to an increase in its corporate savings, a trend that reflects distortions arising from the transition process from a planned to a market economy. These distortions exacerbate China's income inequality, causing domestic consumption to remain a small share of GDP. Large recent current account deficits in the United States, on the other hand, can be attributed to public sector disserving and perverse incentives generated by housing and equity bubbles, made possible by loose monetary policy and by “innovative” financial derivatives arising from the financial deregulation in the early 1980s. The paper shows that short-run measures are unlikely to fully address these external imbalances. Both countries require long-run, structural measures to resolve the underlying problems and to restore a sustainable foundation for growth. -
Publication
Light Manufacturing in Vietnam : Creating Jobs and Prosperity in a Middle-Income Economy
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-01-23)Light Manufacturing in Vietnam makes the case that, if the country is to continue along a rapid economic growth path and create jobs, it must undertake a structural transformation that can lift workers from low-productivity agriculture and the mere assembly of imported inputs to higher-productivity activities. Vietnam needs to address fundamental issues in the manufacturing sector that, until now, have been masked by economic growth. The book shows that there is a dichotomy between domestic enterprises and enterprises supported by foreign direct investment. The dominant state-owned enterprises and foreign-invested firms are often not integrated with smaller, domestic firms through backward or forward links in the use of domestically produced inputs or intermediate products. Growth in the domestic light manufacturing sector has arisen from the sheer number of micro and small enterprises rather than from expansion in the number of medium and large firms. As a consequence, final products have little value added; technology and expertise are not shared; and the economy has failed to move up the structural transformation ladder. This structure of production is one of the reasons Vietnam's rapid process of industrialization over the last three decades has not been accompanied by a favorable trade balance. Policy measures to address problems in competitiveness in Vietnam must confront the dual structure of the light manufacturing sector, while raising the value added in the industry. To that end, measures must be taken to nurture the expansion of small domestic firms, while helping these firms to achieve greater productivity through trade integration. This will require improvements in labor skills and technology and in the quality and variety of products able to compete with imports. Policies to reduce the role of the state-owned sector, promote trading companies, encourage clustering and subcontracting, and raise foreign and social networking are important in this respect. To boost the value added of its goods, Vietnam needs to integrate the supply chain in assembly activities by investing in the upstream production of the goods in which it has a comparative advantage in production and in which it has already established a market share, such as agribusiness, garments, and wood. Unlike downstream activities, however, the production of the associated raw materials and intermediate goods is capital intensive and technology driven, and it requires skilled labor. Inviting foreign direct investment into these areas and reforming education and vocational systems are the best means to reach this goal. For this reason, the government should launch a complete review of the incentives for foreign direct investment to focus on upstream production and on bringing in capital and technical expertise, while improving labor and entrepreneurial skills. Based on this analysis, Light Manufacturing in Vietnam proposes concrete policy measures to increase employment and spur job creation by addressing sector-specific constraints. The book presents a set of practical recommendations for policy makers to identify, prioritize, and remove the most serious constraints in each sector. This book will be valuable for policy makers, entrepreneurs, workers, professional economists, and anyone interested in economic development, industrialization, and the structural transformation of Vietnam and of developing countries.