07. Economic and Sector Work (ESW) Studies

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Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. Core diagnostic reports are mandated by the World Bank before lending programs are begun.

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  • Publication
    Uganda Economic Update, 20th Edition: Unlocking the Benefits of the African Continental Free Trade Area and Regional Integration
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-12) World Bank
    The Ugandan economy will need to grow rapidly, sustainably, and broadly (i.e., in a shared manner), to reach middle-income status, lift its population out of poverty, and generate enough jobs for one of the fastest growing populations in the world. To do so, the country needs to unlock its growth potential by allocating productive factors to their most efficient uses. However, like many least developing countries, Uganda suffers from a small domestic market and distortions, which leads to misallocation of resources. As a result, international trade will play a critical role in solving some of the current challenges faced by the Ugandan economy and ultimately boosting economic growth and development. For Uganda, greater integration into global value chains will be crucial to create jobs outside of subsistence agriculture and the informal economy. Sustained growth in trade will also increase consumer welfare by expanding options and lowering prices of consumer goods. Regional trade agreements can help Uganda diversify its range of markets and products, mitigating the risk of external shocks by lessening dependence on any single trading partner. Greater intra-African trade also offers opportunities to add more value to export commodities and to leverage the potential of agribusiness to promote inclusive growth. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers opportunities for Uganda to deepen its access to regional markets and exploit the growth potential of the region. Expanding regional and continental trade offers significant benefits for Uganda, including potential economies of scale, new export opportunities, access to higher levels of the value chain, and forums to improve trade facilitation. However, non-tariff barriers continue to limit trade, including the discriminatory use of technical regulations, non-harmonized sanitary and phytosanitary requirements, and complex rules of origin. Security challenges such as the closure of the border between Rwanda and Uganda in 2019 has also constrained regional integration. To benefit fully from the AfCFTA, Uganda and her neighbors will need to overcome hurdles that have long weakened the effectiveness of existing regional arrangements by facilitating better trade through improved logistics, infrastructure, addressing non-tariff barriers and avoiding the politically motivated trade barriers like border closures.
  • Publication
    Djibouti Economic Monitor, Fall 2022
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10) World Bank
    Djibouti’s economic activity has slowed since the beginning of 2022, after the rebound observed in 2021. Fiscal pressure has increased as a result of measures to mitigate the impact of the war in Ukraine, worsening drought, and a sharp increase in debt service in 2022. Rising international energy and food prices generated high year-on-year inflation. The external current account’ deteriorated further in 2022. The banking sector has remained generally stable and sound, despite the many shocks facing the Djibouti economy. Djibouti’s economy is expected to recover gradually over the medium term. There are several risks to Djibouti’s mediumterm prospects: (i) a further deterioration in the fiscal situation resulting from a continued accumulation of public debt, a continued decline in revenues, and increased tax exemptions; (ii) potential shocks in the global transport and logistics value chains (particularly important for the activities of port-related public enterprises); (iii) the continuation or possible intensification of the Ethiopian crisis; and (iv) climatic shocks, including drought and floods. To strengthen its resilience to the multiple exogenous shocks it faces, Djibouti is implementing a strategy to diversify its port activities in order to capture more value added in international trade. This strategy includes the development of a ship repair yard, a new oil terminal and a new business district at the old port. In addition, to address the impact of climate change, Djibouti is developing a national strategy for the promotion of a green economy whose activities will help generate additional income for the population through the development of ecotourism activities in addition to their beneficial impact on climate change. In this context, the development of networks and the use of digital technology offer Djibouti significant potential for creating economic and social opportunities.
  • Publication
    Bending the Pollution Curve: An Analysis and Prioritization of Pollution Management in Ethiopia
    (World Bank, Washington DC, 2022-09-14) Xie, Jian; Tiruneh, Tamene; Belayhun Woldemeskel, Bereket; Lewis, Christopher Arthur; Schlumpberger, Sven; Croitoru, Lelia; Guttikunda, Sarath
    Pollution and environmental degradation often worsen as countries develop and industrialize. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis suggests that, initially, economic growth increases pollution up to a certain income threshold, and then it begins to decrease pollution. Pollution reduction is not inevitable, however. As one of the fastest-growing economies in Africa, Ethiopia has been facing natural resource depletion and pollution problems which threaten to slow or impede development gains. The country must actively improve its pollution management practices and mitigate the impact of pollution on its economy, public health, and the natural environment as much as possible. This report aims to identify, diagnose, and evaluate air, water, and solid waste pollution issues facing Ethiopia and advise governments on developing and prioritizing pollution management interventions through a long-term perspective. It assesses the impacts of pollution problems and estimates the economic costs of pollution in selected study cities, which provide an economic basis for prioritizing and recommending pollution management interventions and programs. The report concludes that, with a good understanding and public awareness of pollution problems, strong political will, and sound strategies for pollution management, Ethiopia may bend the EKC and avoid the “pollute first, clean up later” development path that industrialized countries have taken—creating the chance for a cleaner environment, a healthier population, and a stronger and sustainable development progress.
  • Publication
    G5 Sahel Region Country Climate and Development Report
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-07-01) World Bank Group
    The five countries of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger (the G5) in the Sahel region of Africa are among the least developed countries in the world. The now regular and growing climate shocks are causing large losses in outputs, reducing human capital accumulation, and leading to potentially devastating ecological and economic tipping points in the region. This World Bank country climate development report (CCDR) has examined the most critical actions and policy changes needed to accelerate the region's economic recovery, sustainable and inclusive development, and adaptation to the impacts of climate change. This report has three main messages. First, the opportunities for a resilient and lower-carbon development of the G5 countries are significant. They can reverse environmental degradation and maximize the benefits of climate action for the poor. Second, rapid, resilient, and inclusive growth is both the best form of adaptation to climate change and the best strategy for meeting development goals in an effective, sustainable, and productive manner. Third, the costs of inaction are far greater than the costs of action. Early and targeted action on policies and programs presented in this report can move the G5 Sahel countries towards a greener, more resilient, prosperous, and inclusive future.
  • Publication
    Uganda Poverty Assessment: Strengthening Resilience to Accelerate Poverty Reduction
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-06-27) World Bank
    The share of Uganda’s population that lives below the poverty line has fluctuated over the last seven years, greatly influenced by shocks that have tested the resilience of the people. About 30 percent of the country’s population was poor in 2019-20, which is comparable to the poverty rate of 30.7 percent in 2012-13. The pattern of fluctuating poverty rates is largely driven by the experience of rural households. There was a surge in the poverty rate between 2012-13 and 2016-17, linked to the drought in 2016-17, followed by improvement in 2019-20 prior to the pandemic, when favorable weather conditions helped lift rural incomes. The COVID-19 pandemic pushed both urban and rural residents into poverty. Inequality, which reflects the extent to which different population groups benefit from Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, and affects the transmission of growth into poverty reduction, remained largely unchanged over this period and may even have worsened in urban areas. The rest of this overview presents key findings of the report. The next section synthesizes key facts about Uganda’s poverty reduction experience up to 2020. These facts set the stage for the section that follows examining reasons behind limited progress in poverty reduction. The final section reviews the key policy points for action. The report’s analysis is based on new analysis of available data sources as well as published analytical reports such as the Systematic Country Diagnostic Update (World Bank; International Finance Corporation; Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency 2021), the Country Economic Memorandum (World Bank 2022), and the previous Poverty Assessment (World Bank 2016).
  • Publication
    Socio-Emotional Drivers of Youth Unemployment: The Case of Higher Educated Youth in Sudan
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06) De Martino, Samantha; Farfán, Gabriela; Gayoso, Lyliana; Osman, Eiman
    This study seeks to contribute to the existing literature in Sudan by analyzing psychological, social, and behavioral drivers of youth employment in combination with key structural issues identified in the country. Our analysis is based in existing literature on the structural problems that Sudanese youth face to accessing the labor market and uses a novel dataset to examine the factors that determine youth’s career aspirations as well as the factors that serve as barriers to achieve their career aspirations. In addition, the study explores the role of mindsets and soft skills, both as direct determinants of labor market outcomes as well as indirect determinants through their impact on aspirations. Specifically, we measure mental health (anxiety), core self-beliefs, and job-relevant soft skills that moderate the way individuals manage and interact socially in the labor market. Core self-evaluation beliefs determine the way individuals perceive their own basic capabilities, and soft skills are a set of learned, realized behaviors that allow individuals to effectively manage inter- and intrapersonal situations. The aim of this study is to provide a deeper and more comprehensive understanding of the youth unemployment challenge to help identify potential cost-effective interventions that support youth’s job search and employability in Sudan.
  • Publication
    Sierra Leone Economic Update 2022: Leveraging SME Financing and Digitization for Inclusive Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-05-31) World Bank
    The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has set back the economy and fiscal balances of Sierra Leone, which are now further impacted by the war in Ukraine. Real gross domestic product (GDP) growth turned negative in 2020, while the government’s efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit were undermined by the need for emergency spending. Just when the economy began to recover, the war in Ukraine caused new disruption through sharply higher food and fuel prices. Thus, the authorities face both the short-term challenge of coping with these price shocks while recovering from the pandemic, and the medium-term challenge of renewing fiscal consolidation and promoting higher economic growth. Public finances have deteriorated since the onset of COVID-19. Inflationary pressures have accelerated since mid-2021, driven first by the post-pandemic rebound in consumption, and subsequently by global supply chain disruptions since the onset of the Ukraine war, and depreciation pressures on the Leone. Small-and-medium enterprises (SMEs) can be engines of economic growth and job creation,under the right circumstances. Currently, in Sierra Leone, SMEs (along with micro-enterprises) provide livelihoods to approximately 70 percent of the population and represent over 90 percent of the domestic private sector. Access to finance for SMEs and digital finance are priorities for the government. Digital financial services (DFS) are not diversified, and mobile money remains the main driver. The payments infrastructure including the RTGS, ACH and securities settlement system needs to be upgraded. Sierra Leone lacks a modern credit reporting system. Key recommendations for greater SME access to finance are presented in this report.
  • Publication
    Building a Responsive and Resilient Vocational Education and Training System in Benin
    (Washington, DC, 2022-05) World Bank
    Benin has embarked on an ambitious reform of rapid expansion of its technical and vocational education training (TVET) sector with the goal, among others, to increase enrollment tenfold by 2030. Investments in the Benin’s human development are important to support the government’s economic growth objectives. A specific area of focus and one that has received support from the very highest levels of government is the focus on skills development and TVET. The government has put in place significant reforms to support this subsector with the aim to increase the skills base of the Beninese workforce and the population more generally, to enhance the coordination and functioning of the sector, to strengthen sectoral and institutional governance, and to improve system efficiency and relevance of programs to the needs of the labor market. The objective of this policy note is to inform the ongoing TVET reforms. The note assesses the effectiveness of the TVET system in Benin and provides policy recommendations for improvements. This policy note also presents a perspective on the plans to rapidly expand the sector, drawing on the experience of other economies including high-growth East Asian countries, and considers global trends, technological advances, climate change, and structural challenges, including the high level of informal employment and gender inequality. The report is organized into five chapters. Chapter one presents background information outlining opportunities, challenges, and reforms in the Benin TVET system. Chapter two provides broader analysis of the TVET system in Benin. Chapter three analyzes the recent developments and reforms to system of governance and financing. While chapter four assesses the quality assurance (QA) system in TVET, chapter five summarizes the key reform options and policy recommendations.
  • Publication
    Food Safety in Africa: Past Endeavors and Future Directions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-04-27) World Bank
    Current donor investment in food safety in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) largely reflects the concerns of previous decades and as a result is substantially focused on access to regional and overseas export markets, with emphasis on national control systems. Relatively little is being done to reduce foodborne illness among consumers in SSA. More investment in food safety (by African governments, donors, and the private sector) is needed to help ensure that Africans have safe food. New understanding of foodborne disease burden and management, along with rapid and broad change within societies and agri-food systems in SSA, has led to food safety emerging as an important public health and development issue. There is need to reconsider donor and national government investment strategies and the role of the private sector. This report is a call for action on food safety. It provides up-to-date information on key food safety actors, presents the first-ever analysis of food safety investments in SSA, captures insights from a wide-ranging expert consultation and makes suggestions for attaining food safety, based on evidence but also consensus principles, successful elsewhere but not yet applied widely in mass domestic markets in SSA.
  • Publication
    Sub-Saharan Africa - Macro Poverty Outlook: Country-by-Country Analysis and Projections for the Developing World, April 2022
    (Washington, DC, 2022-04) World Bank
    This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries of the Sub-Saharan Africa region. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita - and where available – other indicators such as primary school enrollment, life expectancy at birth, total greenhouse gas emissions and inflation, among others, are included for each country. In addition to the World Bank’s most recent forecasts, key conditions and challenges, recent developments and outlook are briefly described for each country in the region.