Sector/Thematic Studies

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/2110

Economic and Sectoral Work are original analytic reports authored by the World Bank and intended to influence programs and policy in client countries. They convey Bank-endorsed recommendations and represent the formal opinion of a World Bank unit on the topic. This set includes the sectoral and thematic studies which are not Core Diagnostic Studies. Other analytic and advisory activities (AAA), including technical assistance studies, are included in these sectoral/thematic collections.

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Equitable Growth, Finance & Institutions Insight

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Malaysia Economic Monitor, February 2023: Expanding Malaysia’s Digital Frontier

(Washington, DC, 2023-02) World Bank

Global growth has slowed markedly, edging closer to falling into recession. Meanwhile, growth in the East Asia and Pacific (EAP) region, excluding China rebounded, diverging from the global trend, as mobility restrictions were removed. Malaysia’s growth during the quarter was also the highest relative to other regional countries. Like its regional peers, the Malaysian economy bucked the global trend and recorded a strong growth in Q3 2022. Malaysia’s strong performance in Q3 2022 - and for 2022 overall - was in part due likely to the withdrawals from the employee’s provident fund (EPF) which contributed to higher private consumption in Malaysia than in other countries. In addition, improved labor market conditions, other government policy measures such as the increase in the minimum wage and cash assistance programs such as Bantuan Keluarga Malaysia provided additional support. On the supply side, all economic sectors expanded during the period.
Jordan Economic Monitor, Fall 2022 - Public Investment: Maximizing the Development Impact

(Washington, DC, 2023) World Bank

Despite a challenging global environment, Jordan’s growth exceeded expectations during the first half of 2022. Propelled by a strong rebound in international tourism, the full reopening of the economy, and improving exports, real GDP accelerated to 2.7 percent. However, the rebound in economic activity was only modestly reflected on labor market indicators with unemployment rates declining only gradually. Inflation has reached its highest level since 2018 but remains contained compared to regional peers, due to temporary fuel subsidies and a number of other price control measures introduced in 2022. Yet, the untargeted subsidy support came at a fiscal cost as fiscal consolidation adjustments have slowed down despite good tax performance. On the external front, elevated global commodity prices led to a significant rise in Jordan’s import bill, outpacing the effect of the increased merchandise exports and tourism. Moreover, capital and financial inflows did not keep up with the widening current account deficit, resulting in a widening of the balance of payment deficit and a drawdown in foreign exchange reserves. Nonetheless, due to its substantial reserve buffers, the Central Bank’s gross foreign reserves remained at an adequate level, while Jordan continues to retain investors’ confidence and access to foreign financial markets. Jordan’s economic recovery in 2022 is expected to be driven by a full rebound of the services sector, helped by the full reopening of the economy and a strong rebound in tourism. However, highly volatile global fuel and food prices are impacting both domestic consumption and the trade balance. Risks surrounding Jordan’s outlook include a looming global economic downturn, prolongation of the global food and energy crisis, and the impact of higher borrowing costs and widening losses from state-owned water and electricity sectors on debt dynamics. The Special Focus highlights the role of public investment as a driver of growth, with a particular focus on its recent trends, as well as its efficiency and effectiveness. This is particularly relevant given Jordan’s constrained fiscal envelope. Public investment spending has been suffering from a steady decline during the past two decades to meet the fiscal consolidation targets, consistent under-execution, large dependency on external aid and lack of budget for operation and maintenance cost. Its efficiency can be maximized by having in place financially realistic long-term strategic planning, transparent project selection and an adoption of a medium-term perspective. Purposefully integrating climate concerns in public investments would also advance the country’s achievement of its climate targets.
Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No.22, Fall 2022: Beyond the Crises

(Washington, DC, 2022-10) World Bank

The economies of the Western Balkans continue to face a turbulent external environment, placing households, firms, and governments under acute stress. Just as the post-COVID recovery of 2021 began to fade and the region returned to a normalized rate of economic growth, the Western Balkan region now faces a new combination of challenges. The war in Ukraine, and the resultant sharp increase and energy prices and slowdown in global growth, is weighing on economic performance in all six economies. Higher energy and food prices have pushed inflation to levels unseen for many years, eroding purchasing power and business confidence. Monetary tightening in advanced economies is pushing up financing costs and weakening external demand. Following a strong rebound in 2021, growth, although still robust, was on a decelerating path in the first half of 2022. In Q1 of 2022, the Western Balkan economies remained resilient overall, supported by sizable policy actions at the EU, euro area, and national levels. First-quarter growth was particularly strong in tourism-based economies and in Serbia. However, growth decelerated in Q2, as countries had to deal with the direct consequences of the war and is projected to continue decelerating in the second half of the year reflecting higher base levels of growth in Q3 and Q4 2021 and the stronger global headwinds.
Rwanda Economic Update, September 2022: Boosting Exports Through Technology, Innovation, and Trade in Services

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-09) World Bank Group

Rwanda’s economy staged a strong recovery in 2021. Inflationary pressures are mounting, leading the National Bank of Rwanda to tighten monetary policy. Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to moderate in 2022-24, weighed down by the war in Ukraine. Fiscal consolidation and spending efficiencies will be introduced with the FY22-23 budget to preserve space for growth-enhancing investment. Rwandan firms’ participation in international trade has increased dramatically. Econometric analysis shows that obtaining International Organization for Standardization (ISO) certification, adoption of e-commerce and access to credit are significantly co-related to a Rwandan firm’s participation in exports. Innovation is significantly related to exports, although the relationship varies by sector and type of innovation. Rwanda is facing a skills deficit that, if not remedied, will constrain potential growth for high-skill services exports. Rwanda’s efforts to achieve international cooperation on services trade policies have been mixed. Rwanda should address its skills shortage by recognizing qualifications of regional professionals and abolishing work-permit regimes for all eligible regional professionals. However, the attraction of regional services providers should be accompanied by aggressive measures to help expand the number of Rwandan professionals.
Algeria Economic Update: Building Resilience in Favorable Times

(Washington, DC, 2022-04) World Bank

This Algeria Economic Update provides an account of main recent economic developments and policies. It places them in a global and longer-term context and assesses the consequences of these developments and policy changes for Algeria’s prospects. The report is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals working in and on Algeria. The report is organized into two chapters. Chapter 1 presents macroeconomic developments in Algeria up to late 2021 and early 2022. Chapter 2 describes the short- and medium-term outlook for the Algerian economy.
Iran Economic Monitor, Spring 2022: Managing Economic Uncertainties - With a Special Focus : Preparing for an Uncertain Water Future

(Washington, DC, 2022-04) World Bank

This Iran Economic Monitor (IEM) provides an update on key economic developments and policies as of Spring 2022. Iran’s economy continued its gradual recovery in 2021-2022 following the rebound in domestic and external demand. Despite a more accommodative fiscal policy in 2021-2022, higher oil and tax revenues have improved the fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratio. GDP growth is projected to remain modest in the medium term, as the economy remains constrained by both global and domestic gr owth bottlenecks. A more favorable global oil market outlook is projected to improve Iran’s fiscal and external balances. Iran’s economic outlook is subject to significant risks. Consumer price inflation accelerated due to a combination of supply-push and demandpull factors, adding to pressures on the welfare of lower-income households. Addressing long-term development challenges, including impending climate change shocks, requires a comprehensive package of economic reforms complemented by adequate social protection measures.
The Long Shadow of Informality: Challenges and Policies

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-03-08) Ohnsorge, Franziska ; Yu, Shu ; Ohnsorge, Franziska ; Yu, Shu ; Capasso, Salvatore ; Elgin, Ceyhun ; Kasyanenko, Sergiy ; Kindberg-Hanlon, Gene ; Koh, Wee Chian ; Kose, M. Ayhan ; Okawa, Yoki ; Okou, Cedric ; Taskin, Temel ; Vashakmadze, Ekaterine T. ; Vorisek, Dana ; Ye, Sandy Lei

A large percentage of workers and firms operate in the informal economy, outside the line of sight of governments in emerging markets and developing economies. Widespread informality may hold back the recovery in these economies from the deep recessions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic—unless governments adopt a broad set of policies to address the challenges of widespread informality. This study is the first comprehensive analysis of the extent of informality and its implications for a durable economic recovery and for long-term development. It finds that pervasive informality is associated with significantly weaker economic outcomes—including lower government resources to combat recessions, lower per capita incomes, greater poverty, less financial development, and weaker investment and productivity.
Indonesia’s Online Vacancy Outlook: From Online Job Postings to Labor Market Intelligence 2020

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-02-09) World Bank

The objective of this technical report and the accompanying skills profiles report is twofold. First, the technical report explains the methodology used to transform job postings text into OV data and in turn, illustrates how to use those data to produce labor market intelligence valuable to different users. Second, the report presents answers to questions often asked by end-users and policymakers. This work is part of a series produced by the World Bank to support the Government of Indonesia in strengthening its labor market information system (LMIS). The OVO presents the results of one of four data pilots that, if adopted by the government, will provide the information needed to fill in important data gaps and to provide key labor market intelligence services to different users. Moreover, while this work focuses on the Indonesian context, it may also inform decisions in other developing countries that are considering the utilization of these data and having concerns about their validity when there is limited access to the internet and widespread informality.
Moldova Policy Notes 2021: Sectoral Recommendations

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-12) World Bank

Moldova’s policy priorities and key actions going forward: Strengthening the capacity and governance of public administration; Strengthening the judiciary and the fight against corruption; Supporting a resilient recovery while safeguarding fiscal sustainability; Building fiscal resilience at the subnational level with land administration and property registration and valuation; Enhancing labor markets and addressing COVID-19 challenges; Achieving a sustainable social protection system; Improving the efficiency and resilience of health service delivery; Strengthening environment protection and disaster risk management; Water resource management; Increasing resilience and competitiveness of agriculture; Enhancing the business environment and market competition; Fostering SMEs and strengthening FDI linkages; Enhancing financial sector stability and governance; Strengthening education outcomes and skills; Expanding inclusive digital development opportunities; Multimodal transport and logistics; and Addressing energy security and sustainability.
Towards a National Jobs Strategy in Kuwait

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022) Ajwad, Mohamed Ihsan ; Koettl, Johannes ; Radwan, Ismail ; Farole, Thomas ; Sanchez-Reaza, Javier ; Chartouni, Carole ; Alaref, Jumana Jamal Subhi ; Rivera, Nayib ; Sundararaman, Venkatesh ; Afif, Zeina ; Dexter, Gharam Alkastalani

This report is one of the main deliverables outlined in the legal arrangement of September 10, 2019, between the General Secretariat of the Supreme Council for Planning and Development (GS-SCPD) in Kuwait and the World Bank. A separate overview report is also available. The social contract in Kuwait is at risk. Kuwaiti citizens are used to the state providing public sector jobs, free education, free healthcare, and subsidized fuel to all citizens. These benefits have been bought and paid for using Kuwait’s oil revenues, however, the sustainability of the social contract has been questioned by three mutually reinforcing challenges. First, oil demand is projected to steadily decline the next few decades. This decline is partly the result of changing consumer preferences away from carbon-based fuel sources, and partly the result of increasingly cost-effective alternative energy sources becoming available. Second, with mounting fiscal deficits, the size of the wage bill for the government is a growing concern. Third, the needs in the labor market will continue to grow as Kuwait’s population is young and growing. Central to these structural challenges are challenges to Kuwait’s labor market. A growing number of young Kuwaitis are entering the labor market with high expectations of well-paid, secure, public sector jobs. In the private sector, employers are dependent on low-cost and largely unskilled foreign workers. The 2019 COVID-19 global pandemic, which has led to an oil price crisis and a global economic slowdown, has intensified the debate surrounding jobs challenges in Kuwait. These jobs challenges need to be addressed to ensure the sustainability of the economic growth model and avoid major social disruption. The government has asked The World Bank for assistance to formulate a National Jobs Strategy to help confront these challenges, based on evidence and best practices. Reforms are recommended in four areas, or pillars: (i) make the public sector more sustainable, (ii) improve human capital, (iii) support private sector growth, and (iv) build a social protection system. In addition, the jobs strategy covers two cross-cutting themes: behavioral economics, and monitoring and evaluation, also embedded in the four pillars. This introduction briefly explains the critical challenges facing Kuwait that require substantial changes in policy. The subsequent sections analyze the major issues of these four topics, with recommendations for policy change to improve sustainability and enhance incomes.